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Beaten up Kiwi takes a strong Rebound

Jignesh 投稿日: 2015年11月05日  in #Trader's blog #NZD #Fundamentals #Nzdusd #Kiwi #Employment #Nzdjpy #Labor Market
The Kiwi has taken a beating this week as fundamentals have not been in favor of the currency. It started with a bad Dairy number, and then continued with a big miss in Employment change.
Although the Unemployment Rate came in as expected at 6.0%, It was still a drop from previous reading at 5.9, in fact, New Zealand has been posting steady declines in Unemployment since last year this time.
To top that off, the USD has been strong, which has been putting pressure on all the majors. Today, the K…
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Up Next - NZD Rate Decision

Jignesh 投稿日: 2015年04月29日  in #NZD #Monetary Policy #Kiwi #Rbnz
On the docket today is a rate decision from the RBNZ. According to the NZ Herald, Top economist believe rates will be unchanged (by 62% of those paneled) while 32% say that a cut may be seen.
One of the key deciding factors which supports a case for a cut, is the current low inflation rate. Unlike the Fed, the RBNZ does not view the underlining reasoning as transitory. A word which has resurfaced once again in today's FED statement.
Another key factor, is the Kiwi appreciating as of late. With p…
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Jignesh 2015年04月30日

Although the RBNZ did not surprise the market with a rate cut, the statement indicated a strong view of cutting rates in the future which has caused a sell off in the Kiwi across the board.  The Currency fell between 100 - 300 pips in various pairs.

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NZDCAD Topping at Monthly Highs

Jignesh 投稿日: 2015年03月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:NZD/CAD, 予想レート: 0.9207, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Resistance #Elliott Wave #Correction #Kiwi #NZD/CAD #Channel #Nzdcad #Monthly Chart
Overview

The Long term Monthly count on NZDCAD, shows a structure to the upside has completed. The up move started in Jan 2009, and has done a corrective move up to complete in the 0.9630 area.
In the past month, the pair saw sellers come in strong once again as the pair approached highs near the 0.9600 level, and looks like it may be ending the month off forming a doji, or in another words, a potential reversal candle.
Levels
0.9628 - March 2014 high / Multi Year highs
0.9459 - Weekly Support …
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Jignesh 2015年04月26日

In the last week, the pair has taken out the support at 9320 and continued it's slide all the way down to a low of 9162.  Weekly support marked above at 9207 was briefly taken out on the 4H, but the daily chart failed to close below and showed a pinbar formation.  We can see the pair pullback a bit here.  The week has closed off at 9251.    This week's upside potential should be capped at 9320 which previously marked support, should now act as strong resistance and an area where seller's should step in.

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Jignesh 2015年04月28日

The pair is currently trading at the day's highs after an impressive single day gain.  Currently hovering around 9305, the pair shows it can still extend higher towards the 9320 resistance zone.  Daily close would need to remain below this level for some downside pressure over the next few days

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Jignesh 2015年04月29日

The pair held the upside resistance and caught sellers just ahead of 9320.  The Daily candle looks to be setting up as a bearish engulfing candle so far, which supports the idea of follow through.  There is some risk event on the docket with an official cash rate & statement from the RBNZ in just a few hours.  The event has the capability of moving the pair down significantly through the 9207 support level in the case of a rate cut.  In the case of a status quo statement, the technical setup can be expected to continue to play out towards the 9207 support level.

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Jignesh 2015年04月30日

The pair is trading near the bottom of the channel after the RBNZ Statement gave seller's a reason to continue selling.  The 9207 Support level has been breached.  The Support level's to look at next are the bottom of the channel, 9130 which is Daily Support, and 9153 which marks the spike low on the 23rd of April..  Upside resistance remains at 9207

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Jignesh 2015年05月01日

With just 30 mins left, we take a look at the 1 Minute chart for a bit of direction.  Already, it can be seen that the 5M was trending down and has taken a bit of an upturn.  The 1 Min Elliott Wave Count indicates that the majority of the correction up has already taken place, yet one more leg to the upside is still required to satisfy the bare minimum of the correction, and call wave Y complete.  In the time left to complete, the pair has a good chance on complete the structure at the target level of 9207.

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