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A pull back in a longer downtrend for JPN.IDX

Jignesh Posted 20 Apr. as Analysis on JPN.IDX/JPY, Target: 18010, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Japan #Equities #Channel #Retracement #Pullback #Elliottwave #Jpn IDX/JPY
The JPN.IDX is in a longer term down trend, that started in the first week of August 2015. However, the instrument caught a bid at it's 200 Weekly SMA. As well, smaller time frames suggest a bullish correction is already under way, which has potential to last throughout the Month of May.
Levels
15794 - Jan Spike Low
16340 - Jan lowest Daily close & early Feb Daily spike highs
17290 - March Highs
17871 - Jan Highs
18260 - End of 2015 Daily close
The chart below is a monthly chart showing the leve…
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Jignesh 5 May

Ahead of the start of May, we already saw the pull back in the bullish trend.  The BOJ, which had given a signal to the market that it would likely intervene in the markets, in a surprise move, did not do anything.  It acted as a catalyst for a sell off against the proposed bullish trend.  As we approach the bottom of the channel, we will be looking for a bounce over the next week, to hold the channel intact and affirm the bullish trend.

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Daily Fractal Pattern suggest further downside in August

Jignesh Posted 31 July as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5158, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Support #Trendline #Gbpusd #Fibonacci #Reistance #Elliottwave
The GBPUSD has been quite bullish since bottoming mid April. As of late, however, the pair has been struggling to make any significant weekly advances.
There is a pattern that has already been seen on the daily chart, that has now appeared in fractal form on the 4H chart. On the daily it marked a point of turn in price, and the expectation will be the same for 4H, which can trigger further bearish price action in the month of August.
Levels
1.5690 - July 29 Spike high ** Key resistance and patte…
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WallStreet6 2 Aug.

I'm also anticipating the cable turning into bearish trend, but first I thought it was going to appreciate.  But maybe you're right that the bullish sentiment is running out.

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Jignesh 2 Aug.

I agree WallStreet6 .. I've been long this pair for over 3 weeks now.  Was expecting a lot more upside than we've seen.  Looking for an pullback towards resistance early week and then the bearish trend to start.  A break above recent highs would invalidate my wave count.

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Jignesh 7 Aug.

This week we've had 2 big moves in the GBPUSD. First was after a weaker than expected MPC Vote, it triggered a nice selloff in the pair, and then surprisingly today after a weak NFP number, it caused another sell off.  Currently we are trading at the daily trendline, which has provided some support for the pair.  Will be looking to see if the pair catches a bounce here, before it continues selling off next week.

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NZDCAD to resume it's bearish trend

Jignesh Posted 31 July as Analysis on NZD/CAD, Target: 0.8240, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Resistance #NZD/CAD #Bearish Signs #Channel #Downtrend #Suport #Elliottwave #Nzdcad
This Analysis is a continuation from the April technical analysis submission.
The same wave count is still valid, and the downtrend has not completed as of yet. The Gartley pattern has played, but the count suggests the down trend will continue.
Levels
0.89495 - Daily Support/Resistance
0.86990 - Major Resistance - First half 2013 & Support 2014
0.84209 - Gartley pattern and weekly support
0.82059 - Weekly Previous Support
0.81140 - Weekly Previous Support
The below chart was what was posted in …
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Link for Today's Webinar with DocDow

Jignesh  in #Technical analysis #Webinar #Youtube #Eurusd #Dukascopy Tv #Elliott Wave Analysis
Today I had the pleasure of doing a joint webinar with veteran trader "DocDow".
We talked about Elliott Wave Analysis, views on the USDJPY, EUR and a few other things. If you missed it, you catch the recording on youtube.
We will be looking to hold a joint webinar weekly moving forward. Wednesdays at 11GMT - Please the webinar schedule for details!
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USDCHF Bouncing off Key Channel

Jignesh Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9720, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Usdchf #Channel #Fibonacci Level
Overview
USDCHF has been in contained within two channels, but in the past few weeks we have seen it make a bullish break.
Even on a pullback the pair has managed to stay supported from the previous level, given the outlook of a bullish nature
Levels
0.9335 - April Close
0.9480 - 38.2 Fib (0.9079 - 1.0127)
0.9720 - March Close
0.9227 - 61.8% Fib (0.9079 - 1.0127)
Figure 1 - Daily USDCHF - two potential channels, price bouncing between both
Figure 2 - Price respecting channels, until recent bull…
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Jignesh 28 July

The pair has completed an ABC structure to support at 9538.  so far it has once again turned bullish up towards the daily 4h channel pointed out.  Expecting a pull back here, before once again turning bullish.

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Jignesh 30 July

The channel posted in the above comments broke this week, and that was followed by a strong push higher from a hawkish FOMC statement yesterday.  Today we've seen the pair touch the target level of 9720, and that level has acted as resistance for the pair.  Anticipating that this level holds tomorrow and offers a bit of a pull back as the US Dollar index has reached some key resistance.

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Jignesh 2 Aug.

The week has opened with very little movement in the USD pairs.  Some clues can be found from the metals which have been selling off since the open.  Anticipating the majors to see some USD strength going into the London open at the very least, and possibly the New York Open.  However not anticipating any recent highs/lows to be broken, and with the pair marking an absolute high of 0.9718, it is not likely it will hit targets, however there is a strong possibility of it coming within 25 pips or so lower than the target.

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Jignesh 3 Aug.

With just 3 hour left to the target time, the pair is starting to make a bullish break out of it's 15m bollinger bands.  The average ATR for the pair is about 18.5 pips per hour, so it is able to come very close to targets based on time and average price movements.  The overhead resistance and previous highs should cap the price as it starts heading into 0.9710-0.9720

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Jignesh 3 Aug.

although the price was moving higher, lack of volatility prevented from exceeding 9683 at the time of close.  In hindsight, I could have put targets slightly lower as chances of it closing right at resistance are not always likely.  Either way the targets came close the price and analysis did show the right path. 

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EURUSD to Retrace back to Monthly Lows

Jignesh Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0768, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD
Overview
The EURUSD seems to have carved out a bit of a bottom in early March after hitting lows of 1.0463. So far, we've seen a bullish leg up in the pair, which has taken it to highs of 1.1467 in Mid May at which point the pair has struggled to make new highs.
The Daily Wave count in the pair signals that a more significant pull back can occur from these levels, and the outlook for the month is that the pair continues lower towards it's monthly support area before once again turning bullish.
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Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 6 July

The pair has gapped down over the weekend, but to start the week, we have seen the bulls try to get a rally going.  So far the 1H channel is holding the price to the downside, and the expectation is for the area to contain price throughout the week.

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Jignesh 22 July

The pair seems to be following the proposed path in Figure 3 quite nicely.  The fib level outline in the analysis at 1.0846 was overshot, but we have seen a decent pullback from that level.  On the daily charts we have seen a bullish engulfing candle after two consecutive doji's which leads the believe that the upside correction may not be completed as of yet.  A break of 1.0815 will now be required to resume the downtrend.  On the upside, looking for Daily resistance as outlined above at 1.1007 to catch sellers to cap any bullish moves

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Jignesh 23 July

This is the updated wave count on EURUSD.  It shows a structure from B highs 1.1277 has been completed, as an abc correction which marks wave w.  This next bullish move should continue to test a retracement from B highs before continuing lower.  So far we've seen intraday rejection at the 1.1007 resistance marked in this analysis, however the wave count on smaller TF's indicate a pullback is possible but the level will not likely hold the upside.

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Jignesh 28 July

We've seen the 1.1007 resistance level being taken out as the pair continues to retrace in wave x.  The chart below shows the current view, which indicates a potential completion area for wave x is at the 76.4% fib level at 1.1170 as it has already taken out the 61.8 fib at 1.1103.  Expecting this area to be hit later today to complete wave x, and the down trend to once again resume.

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Jignesh 30 July

We've seen some strong bearish momentum in the pair within the last 24 hours after a hawkish FOMC statement.  The pair today reached as low as 1.0892 before turning.  It is assumed as this point that the x wave is in place.  Anticipating a bit of pull back tommorow before once again turning bearish.  It is unlikely that the targets will be met by the target date, but it looks like the pair is still heading to the same area, taking longer in time to get there.

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USDCAD Struggles at Major Monthly Resistance

Jignesh Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2007, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Usdcad #Channel #Pullback #Support And Resistance #Candlesticks #Elliottwave #Trendlines #Fibonacci Retracements #Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Overview
USDCAD Has been struggling to take out Major Monthly Resistance since it first approached the area at the beginning of the year. The USD being in a long term uptrend caused the pair to consolidate in that area for several months. The month of April however, has shown an engulfing Monthly Candle which supports the idea of a larger pullback taking place.
Levels
1.2797/1.2800 - Jan 2015 Highs / Monthly Resistance (Late 2008) / Monthly Resistance
1.2475/1.2525 - Monthly Channel Upside Resis…
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Jignesh 14 May

The fib levels from (x) to (a) has a confluence at the 23.6% fib which comes in at 1.2007.  That area is a technical level which has been marked above and is also the target for this analysis.  That will be the first area to watch for to the upside for a rejection and continuation of downtrend.

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Jignesh 15 May

The retracement has continued today.  The important level 1.2007 also the 23.6% retracement was taken out in early trading.  Upside Fib targets are now the 50% fib at 1.2050, but it is more likely that we see the 61.8 Fib level at 1.2080 before the selling resumes to complete the final leg.

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Jignesh 20 May

The retracement has continued higher with fairly strong momentum as well.  Today the pair is capped by it's 88.8% retracement.  This level is the last level to hold, if it does not, the existing count would be invalidated and a revised count would need to be looked at.

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Jignesh 20 May

The 88.8 fib comes in at 1.2242

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Jignesh 22 May

USDCAD has been holding at the 88.8 Fib.  Today has several fundamental risk events that can add some volatility, and will be looking for a move down here to confirm that this area is in fact holding and we now continue the downtrend, and mark this wave as (b).

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NZDCAD Topping at Monthly Highs

Jignesh Posted 30 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/CAD, Target: 0.9207, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Resistance #Elliott Wave #Correction #Kiwi #NZD/CAD #Channel #Nzdcad #Monthly Chart
Overview

The Long term Monthly count on NZDCAD, shows a structure to the upside has completed. The up move started in Jan 2009, and has done a corrective move up to complete in the 0.9630 area.
In the past month, the pair saw sellers come in strong once again as the pair approached highs near the 0.9600 level, and looks like it may be ending the month off forming a doji, or in another words, a potential reversal candle.
Levels
0.9628 - March 2014 high / Multi Year highs
0.9459 - Weekly Support …
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Jignesh 26 Apr.

In the last week, the pair has taken out the support at 9320 and continued it's slide all the way down to a low of 9162.  Weekly support marked above at 9207 was briefly taken out on the 4H, but the daily chart failed to close below and showed a pinbar formation.  We can see the pair pullback a bit here.  The week has closed off at 9251.    This week's upside potential should be capped at 9320 which previously marked support, should now act as strong resistance and an area where seller's should step in.

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Jignesh 28 Apr.

The pair is currently trading at the day's highs after an impressive single day gain.  Currently hovering around 9305, the pair shows it can still extend higher towards the 9320 resistance zone.  Daily close would need to remain below this level for some downside pressure over the next few days

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Jignesh 29 Apr.

The pair held the upside resistance and caught sellers just ahead of 9320.  The Daily candle looks to be setting up as a bearish engulfing candle so far, which supports the idea of follow through.  There is some risk event on the docket with an official cash rate & statement from the RBNZ in just a few hours.  The event has the capability of moving the pair down significantly through the 9207 support level in the case of a rate cut.  In the case of a status quo statement, the technical setup can be expected to continue to play out towards the 9207 support level.

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Jignesh 30 Apr.

The pair is trading near the bottom of the channel after the RBNZ Statement gave seller's a reason to continue selling.  The 9207 Support level has been breached.  The Support level's to look at next are the bottom of the channel, 9130 which is Daily Support, and 9153 which marks the spike low on the 23rd of April..  Upside resistance remains at 9207

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Jignesh 1 May

With just 30 mins left, we take a look at the 1 Minute chart for a bit of direction.  Already, it can be seen that the 5M was trending down and has taken a bit of an upturn.  The 1 Min Elliott Wave Count indicates that the majority of the correction up has already taken place, yet one more leg to the upside is still required to satisfy the bare minimum of the correction, and call wave Y complete.  In the time left to complete, the pair has a good chance on complete the structure at the target level of 9207.

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Gold to Continue Bearish Trend

Jignesh Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on XAU/USD, Target: 1238.4400, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Commodities #Gold #Elliott Wave #Wave Count #XAU/USD #Xauusd #Metal #Bear Trend
Gold is in a long term down trend and has seen some bullish momentum to start the year. The shiny metal has approached some resistance however and the wave count shown below indicates a turning point.
The metal should be under pressure for the month of February, but as the daily trend is currently bullish, dips may be bought causing some volatility to the downside.
Levels
1307.47 - Jan High
1301.00 - Jan Daily close High
1282.88 - Fib Retracement - 50% (1132.08 - 1433.70)
1265.95 - Fib Re…
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SalviLeana 30 Jan.

Good job ! Great

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Jignesh 9 Feb.

Gold has already surpassed the target on the back of a strong NFP number that took out several support levels.  Currently sitting just Below 1240, the pairs looks like it has just broken a flag patter and looking to retest lows

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Jignesh 25 Feb.

Gold looks like it may have made a bottom here at 1200.    It has surpassed the targets.  We can see some bullish movement into the end of the month, but reaching targets with 2 days left does not look likely

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GBPCAD looking to retest highs once again

Jignesh Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/CAD, Target: 1.8580, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/CAD #Fibonacci #Elliot Wave #Elliott Wave #Abc Correction #Gbpcad
GBPCAD has a clear wave count that can be seen on smaller time cyles which gives a better insight on the overal picture as the pair has mostly been consolidating for the year.
Levels
1.7653 - Daily Support Zone
1.7850 - Monthly Fib Level
1.8580 - Resistance
1.8648 - Previous spike high
The month chart shows the pair has not been able to close below it's 23.6% retracement, and the most recent leg catching a good bounce from that area as per the below chart.
Figure 1 - GBPCAD Monthly - fails to po
…
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Jignesh 5 Nov.

The pair has started the month on a bullish note, and has caught some resistance at 1.8288.  So far it looks like a double correction has been completed and a pull back is anticipated here.  1.8070 offers a good support zone with the 50% Fib level as well as previous resistance.  The second support level would be the important 1.7952.  As long as price is contained by these levels, the upside view remains.

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Jignesh 9 Nov.

The pair ended the week with what appears to be a double bottom on smaller time frames against 1.7952.  The level is an important level in larger time frames and also marks the 76.4% retracement of the last leg up 1.7853-1.8288.  This is a critical level for upside momentum for the month.  The CAD has been showing strength as of late, and thus will be monitoring this level for the week.

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Jignesh 17 Nov.

The pair has broken through support and continues to look bearish. 

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Jignesh 25 Nov.

The technicals on this pair continue to look weak, as well from a fundamental perspective the GBP has become very bearish.  I don't anticipate a turn around in the pair

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