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Establishing Gold & Silver Longs for a Swing Trade

Jignesh Updated 8 July  in #Trader's blog #Gold #Elliott Wave #Silver #XAU/USD #Metal #Swing Trading #XAG/USD

There is a technical setup in Gold I've been keeping a close eye on for the last few years. Monitoring the wave structure trying to catch a good level to go long.
According to the wave count in Gold, the bottom has already taken place on Nov 5th, 2014 @ 1130.
Since then the price has seen a bullish move and a deep retracement.
The charts below show the setup and wave counts.
Figure 1 - XAUUSD Daily holding it's trendline and key 88.6% Fib Level

Figure 2 - XAUUSD Daily Wave Count

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NZDCAD Topping at Monthly Highs

Jignesh Posted 30 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/CAD, Target: 0.9207, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Resistance #Elliott Wave #Correction #Kiwi #NZD/CAD #Channel #Nzdcad #Monthly Chart
Overview

The Long term Monthly count on NZDCAD, shows a structure to the upside has completed. The up move started in Jan 2009, and has done a corrective move up to complete in the 0.9630 area.
In the past month, the pair saw sellers come in strong once again as the pair approached highs near the 0.9600 level, and looks like it may be ending the month off forming a doji, or in another words, a potential reversal candle.
Levels
0.9628 - March 2014 high / Multi Year highs
0.9459 - Weekly Support …
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Jignesh 26 Apr.

In the last week, the pair has taken out the support at 9320 and continued it's slide all the way down to a low of 9162.  Weekly support marked above at 9207 was briefly taken out on the 4H, but the daily chart failed to close below and showed a pinbar formation.  We can see the pair pullback a bit here.  The week has closed off at 9251.    This week's upside potential should be capped at 9320 which previously marked support, should now act as strong resistance and an area where seller's should step in.

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Jignesh 28 Apr.

The pair is currently trading at the day's highs after an impressive single day gain.  Currently hovering around 9305, the pair shows it can still extend higher towards the 9320 resistance zone.  Daily close would need to remain below this level for some downside pressure over the next few days

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Jignesh 29 Apr.

The pair held the upside resistance and caught sellers just ahead of 9320.  The Daily candle looks to be setting up as a bearish engulfing candle so far, which supports the idea of follow through.  There is some risk event on the docket with an official cash rate & statement from the RBNZ in just a few hours.  The event has the capability of moving the pair down significantly through the 9207 support level in the case of a rate cut.  In the case of a status quo statement, the technical setup can be expected to continue to play out towards the 9207 support level.

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Jignesh 30 Apr.

The pair is trading near the bottom of the channel after the RBNZ Statement gave seller's a reason to continue selling.  The 9207 Support level has been breached.  The Support level's to look at next are the bottom of the channel, 9130 which is Daily Support, and 9153 which marks the spike low on the 23rd of April..  Upside resistance remains at 9207

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Jignesh 1 May

With just 30 mins left, we take a look at the 1 Minute chart for a bit of direction.  Already, it can be seen that the 5M was trending down and has taken a bit of an upturn.  The 1 Min Elliott Wave Count indicates that the majority of the correction up has already taken place, yet one more leg to the upside is still required to satisfy the bare minimum of the correction, and call wave Y complete.  In the time left to complete, the pair has a good chance on complete the structure at the target level of 9207.

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Gold to Continue Bearish Trend

Jignesh Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on XAU/USD, Target: 1238.4400, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Commodities #Gold #Elliott Wave #Wave Count #XAU/USD #Xauusd #Metal #Bear Trend
Gold is in a long term down trend and has seen some bullish momentum to start the year. The shiny metal has approached some resistance however and the wave count shown below indicates a turning point.
The metal should be under pressure for the month of February, but as the daily trend is currently bullish, dips may be bought causing some volatility to the downside.
Levels
1307.47 - Jan High
1301.00 - Jan Daily close High
1282.88 - Fib Retracement - 50% (1132.08 - 1433.70)
1265.95 - Fib Re…
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SalviLeana 30 Jan.

Good job ! Great

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Jignesh 9 Feb.

Gold has already surpassed the target on the back of a strong NFP number that took out several support levels.  Currently sitting just Below 1240, the pairs looks like it has just broken a flag patter and looking to retest lows

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Jignesh 25 Feb.

Gold looks like it may have made a bottom here at 1200.    It has surpassed the targets.  We can see some bullish movement into the end of the month, but reaching targets with 2 days left does not look likely

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GBPCAD looking to retest highs once again

Jignesh Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/CAD, Target: 1.8580, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/CAD #Fibonacci #Elliot Wave #Elliott Wave #Abc Correction #Gbpcad
GBPCAD has a clear wave count that can be seen on smaller time cyles which gives a better insight on the overal picture as the pair has mostly been consolidating for the year.
Levels
1.7653 - Daily Support Zone
1.7850 - Monthly Fib Level
1.8580 - Resistance
1.8648 - Previous spike high
The month chart shows the pair has not been able to close below it's 23.6% retracement, and the most recent leg catching a good bounce from that area as per the below chart.
Figure 1 - GBPCAD Monthly - fails to po
…
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Jignesh 5 Nov.

The pair has started the month on a bullish note, and has caught some resistance at 1.8288.  So far it looks like a double correction has been completed and a pull back is anticipated here.  1.8070 offers a good support zone with the 50% Fib level as well as previous resistance.  The second support level would be the important 1.7952.  As long as price is contained by these levels, the upside view remains.

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Jignesh 9 Nov.

The pair ended the week with what appears to be a double bottom on smaller time frames against 1.7952.  The level is an important level in larger time frames and also marks the 76.4% retracement of the last leg up 1.7853-1.8288.  This is a critical level for upside momentum for the month.  The CAD has been showing strength as of late, and thus will be monitoring this level for the week.

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Jignesh 17 Nov.

The pair has broken through support and continues to look bearish. 

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Jignesh 25 Nov.

The technicals on this pair continue to look weak, as well from a fundamental perspective the GBP has become very bearish.  I don't anticipate a turn around in the pair

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EURSEK fakes lower before resuming uptrend

Jignesh Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.4683, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Elliott Wave #Wave Count #Up Trend #EUR/SEK #Eursek #Correction Complete
EURSEK in my previous analysis looked bearish as it broke through a long term daily Trendline.
In the past month it has managed to trade through the level making the wave count complete
Levels
9.0822 - Previous low, Daily support & Bullish invalidation level
9.3507 - Weekly Resistance area
9.4683 - Weekly Resistance and Equal legs target
9.5600 - Weekly Resistance & Fib confluence
The first chart shows a completed ABC structure to the downside. The daily resistance level has cause a bit of sell …
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Jignesh 5 Nov.

The pair has completed one more swing lower to test the 9.20 area.  There is a  good fib confluence in this area, as well as a S/R level, as well as the previously broken Daily Trendline.  If this area fails, the last line in the sand for the pair is 9.14.  Major risk event for the pair in the next 24 hours with the ECB press conference on the docket.

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Jignesh 10 Nov.

The ECB Press conference was a concern for the bullish momentum, but as per the chart above, you can see that it merely caused a spike down.  Meaning the bulls stepped in quickly to buy at lower prices, to bring it back to intern support. 
As per the chart, while remaining above the blue box, the pair still carries good upside potential.  A break would signal the next support at 9.14

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Jignesh 17 Nov.

EURSEK slowly continues higher with very little momentum.  The upside looks promising as it remains above support, however evidence of buying is not necessarily present.  Will require some form of a catalyst most likely through NOK or SEK to gain momentum

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Jignesh 25 Nov.

The pair continues to grind higher against the daily trendline.  The EUR weakness seen on the back of a statement from Draghi had a minor impact on this pair, however it's struggling to gain momentum

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EURJPY continues up trend after ABC correction

Jignesh Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 148.4100, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/JPY #Fundamentals #Bullish #Eurjpy #Elliott Wave #Wave Count #Abc Correction
The BOJ has triggered buying once again in the xxxjpy pairs as they have reaffirmed further QE measures to be taken.
The pair has also completed a 3 wave correction against the main trend which has lasted close to 1 year now.
Levels
134.00 - Yearly low and bullish invalidation point
141.22 - Resistance and previous completion area for b wave of smaller degree
143.00-143.50 - Resistance zone
148.41 - Equal legs target
The first chart below shows the simple ABC corrective wave structure which is …
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Jignesh 17 Nov.

The pair continued higher last week.  After some hesistation around the mentioned resistance zone of 143.00-143.50 it managed to close the week touching multi year highs at 146.50. 
This week we are seeing strong selling which has been typical to start the week, however, the basis is on a JPY risk event and may carry some weight.

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Jignesh 25 Nov.

EURJPY continued it's rally last week to touch the resistance area and target marked in the analysis.  The equal legs area which also confluences a 127% extension provided sufficient resistance for the pair for a larger move lower.  Timing wise the pair has reached the area ahead of the time expected and will continue to see if the pair will consolidate in this area.  So far 145.65 which marks the 2013 high has managed to support the pair

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Jignesh 27 Nov.

On the smaller cycles, the pair is stuck between the 50% retracement of the last leg down and a longer term trendline.  On the docket today is CPI data from Spain and Germany.  The German number has been forecast quite high in comparison to the overall inflation levels.  Will be keeping a close eye on the trendline which while supported has potential to bring the pair back towards targets.

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Jignesh 28 Nov.

The bullish move has occured.  Next on the docket is EUR CPI Flash Estimate.  This number usually comes in line but has the potential to cause some major volatility in the pair, especially if it comes in negative.  This number is the last risk event prior to the target date.

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Jignesh 1 Dec.

After faking out of the trendline the pair has once again shown clearly that the uptrend has most likely resumed.  With USDJPY leading the way breaking to new highs to start the week, the outlook on this pair is positive.  The chart indicates 147.947 as previous resistance which should act as support for the day.  To the upside we have 148.34 which is the resistance level (highest close on the Daily chart).  The pair can reasonably consolidate in this range prior to the NY Open.

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AUDCAD Struggles Ahead of Parity

Jignesh Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9417, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #AUD/CAD #Audcad #Fibonacci #Elliott Wave #Parity
AUDCAD has been getting some footing over the last few weeks, but the clear trend and heavy momentum appears to the downside.
The Monthly outlook on the pair shows the top in Feb 2012 and a larger cycle to the downside is in play.
Levels
1.0000 - Phsycological Parity level
0.9970 - Weekly Resistance Level
0.9960 - October High & 50% Retracement of last leg down (1.0234-96.88)
0.9830 - Weekly/Monthly minor support and Fib confluence area
0.9417 - Weekly/Monthly Major support and Fib confluence …
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Jignesh 17 Nov.

AUDCAD has gained back much of it's losses from early in the month as is typical of a the first wave in a new structure.  The levels to watch for further downside momentum are 0.9930-.9940 which marks that 76.4% retracement of the last leg down.  And the area of previous resistance.  The 88.8% retracement comes in at 99.60 - a break of which would negate downside pressure.

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Jignesh 25 Nov.

As per previous comments the intial leg and retracement supported the view as outlined in the analysis.  However recent consolidation requires a break for further momentum.  Fundamentals out of China with an unexpected rate cut can have some implications for the AUD.  This week the CAD can put some pressure on the pair as the CAD futures are showing potential signs of reversal as well as oil.

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Jignesh 25 Nov.

Over the last 12 hours, the pair has broken lower out of consolidation.  The blue box on the chart above marks the previous October lows.  The Bollinger bands indicate that the momentum is strong to the downside on the daily chart, and this move looks like it is just beginning to start.

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Jignesh 27 Nov.

AUDCAD has made a surprising sharp reversal.  The CAD has been slightly weaker in the last 12 hours but not to warrant such a move.  Flows can be coming in through AUDUSD which has the bulls fighting to protect a major 50% fib retracement from 2008 lows to 2011 highs found on  the weekly chart. 

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Jignesh 28 Nov.

After an ABC structure to the upside, the pair has managed to once again turn bearish.  So far momentum is looking good to the downside, however with well over 200 pips from targets and just over 1 day trading left, the targets are most likely out of scope for this pair.

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USDCAD to continue correcting against the H4 Trend

Jignesh Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.0709, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trend #USD/CAD #Corrective Wave #Elliott Wave #Fibonacci Retracement #Flat Structure
USDCAD Looks like it may be continuing it's trend to the upside from last year, after spending much of the time this year correcting.
  • So far we can see 3 waves to the downside, with a flat correction ending at the 50% of the move to the upside
  • The retracement on the first leg up is usually deep, indicating a high possibility of a double correction
  • Previous support at the 76.4% marks an ideal spot for a reversal

USDCAD - 4H Wave Count

As per the above chart, there are 3 waves to the upside mar…
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Jignesh 3 Sep.

With CAD data coming up within the next 24 hours, I expect the 1.0950 level to hold to complete the X wave, however, as long as the pair stays below the 1.10 handle this view remains valid.

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Jignesh 22 Sep.

The pair made a new high, indicating that the correction was a single correction and not a double.  The wave count is no longer marked as WXY but a simple ABC.  There are already 5 swings to the upside and the pair has started to pull back, but it remains bullish against  1.0808 and it is not likely to see any further downside.  The setup is invalidated and I do not expect the targets to be hit.

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EUR/USD Wave count and trade idea

Jignesh Posted 16 Apr.  in #Euro #Trade Setup #Elliott Wave #Wave Count
Since I've just posted a trade idea on the EURCAD, I figured I might as well post my EURUSD chart as well.
Keep in mind, with Elliott Wave analysis, things can change very fast and a count can easily be invalidated. For now, this is the view that I like.
The Daily chart below shows an ABC structure that started at 1.2755 and I am showing it as completed at 1.3966. The second part of the structure, Wave (C) shows the internal structure quite clearly with a running flat (b) wave. What's interes…
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