On the docket today is a rate decision from the RBNZ. According to the NZ Herald, Top economist believe rates will be unchanged (by 62% of those paneled) while 32% say that a cut may be seen.
One of the key deciding factors which supports a case for a cut, is the current low inflation rate. Unlike the Fed, the RBNZ does not view the underlining reasoning as transitory. A word which has resurfaced once again in today's FED statement.
Another key factor, is the Kiwi appreciating as of late. With pressure on the USD, the high yielding New Zealand Dollar has attracted carry trader's once again to the NZDUSD looking for a safe way to play USD weakness. We have seen the Kiwi appreciate against most of it's counterparts during this period of weakness in the greenback, with only the only exceptions being the other commodity currencies.
There are some strong technical setups in the market which suggest NZD weakness today as well. NZDCHF is currently trading up against it's weekly Resistance Level & 61.8% Fib @ 7390. NZDJPY is currently showing an Elliott Wave structure that suggest the cycle from Feb lows at 84.20 has completed against the 76.4 fib of the last leg down @91.86. And NZDUSD is trading up against it's daily Channel Resistance and 61.8% Fib Level.
One of the key deciding factors which supports a case for a cut, is the current low inflation rate. Unlike the Fed, the RBNZ does not view the underlining reasoning as transitory. A word which has resurfaced once again in today's FED statement.
Another key factor, is the Kiwi appreciating as of late. With pressure on the USD, the high yielding New Zealand Dollar has attracted carry trader's once again to the NZDUSD looking for a safe way to play USD weakness. We have seen the Kiwi appreciate against most of it's counterparts during this period of weakness in the greenback, with only the only exceptions being the other commodity currencies.
There are some strong technical setups in the market which suggest NZD weakness today as well. NZDCHF is currently trading up against it's weekly Resistance Level & 61.8% Fib @ 7390. NZDJPY is currently showing an Elliott Wave structure that suggest the cycle from Feb lows at 84.20 has completed against the 76.4 fib of the last leg down @91.86. And NZDUSD is trading up against it's daily Channel Resistance and 61.8% Fib Level.
Figure 1 - NZDCHF Weekly
Figure 2 - NZDJPY Daily
Figure 3 - NZDUSD Daily