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USD/JPY Limited Bullish

TheAnalyst Posted 15 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 113.19, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Us Dollar
The pair just weeks ago had a strong technical bearish move, with the pair moving below a key retest 50% fibonacci level as seen in monthly chart 1.
Monthly Chart 1.
As of September 15 the charts have changed enough to point to a prolonged bullish move. Assuming the pair will act more or less the same with any North Korea threat developments and nothing too good or bad unexpected developments from the FED meeting next week, then the pair is poised to move upwards, but with limited upside.
As see…
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TheAnalyst 4 Oct.

After a high at 113.28 the pair seems to have formed support at 112.38, the level where it corrected during the early US session. Moving forward the next major resistance apart from the previous high at 113.28 is 113.66 and 113.77.

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Singapore Dollar Oversold on Bigger Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3559, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD/SGD #Down Trend #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Oversold #Stochastic Indicator #Range Bound #Below 20
The Singapore Dollar seems to be oversold on all the bigger timeframes. The pair from a high of over 1.4500 to 1.3500 right now. This is a large move for a currency that mostly follows the USD.
On the first weekly chart above we are seeing that the USD/SGD is already oversold on the weekly charts. The 5,3,3 Stochastic Oscillator is printing values below 20, indicating that the selling may be overdone.
On the second chart below we are seeing a similar situation on the daily chart, with values bel…
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fxsurprise8 2 Sep.

Everything went according to plan with my forecast. The pair spent the month of August in a range, as can be seen on the chart above.

The August price action is marked with a rectangle on the picture. We opened the month at 1.35742 and closed it at 1.35729, a percentage change of less then 0.01%.

My forecast bet on the pair staying near the what was then the current market price of 1.3559. at 12:00 on September 1st the pair was trading at 1.35451. This is a percentage difference of only 0.10%.

(more below)

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fxsurprise8 2 Sep.

Overall the intra-month price action suit the forecast too. The monthly high stands at 1.3688 and the low at 1.3504.

This is only 184 pips or a percentage variation of only 1.34%, fairly low even for the forex market. Furthermore as we see in the picture in my previous comment, the lows got quickly bought up and the highs got sold.

This suits in the narrative presented in the opening post of price being oversold and stuck in the main downward trend. These two conflicting forces kept the USD/SGD in a range during August. Overall a solid analysis that panned out nicely.

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USD/SGD Range-bound for Almost 2 Years

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3970, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The USD/SGD continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price. But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.
The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. The second chart below show a similar picture on the larger time-frame chart. He…
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Singapore Dollar Still Locked in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3973, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The Singapore Dollar is still trading locked in a range vs the US dollar, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second chart demonstrates this point even more clearly, as we're seeing the currency pair swing back and forth aimlessly.
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr.

So far so good! The pair continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price.

But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.

The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. Everything it pointing to more of the same! Wish me luck as the contest end draws near!

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fxsurprise8 3 May

The pair continued its usual range-bound behavior and ended the contest period at 1.3968, only 5 pips away from my 1.3973 target.

In percentage terms this is around 0.03%, which should land me a spot among the top again. The last few days saw more of the same.

We hit a high of 1.3975 and a low of 1.3940, so again low volatility and range-bound movements prevailed. Stay toned for my final update where I will post an updated chart.

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fxsurprise8 3 May

Lot of swings with no result! This is how April can be characterized for the USD/SGD. Look at the chart above to see what I mean.

First we rallied to a high of 1.4081 by April 10th, then sold off to a low of 1.3906 on April 25th. The lows were quickly bought up however and the pair rallied back up to 'close' the contest period at 1.3968.

This is only 5 pips away from my targeted price. Overall the forecast was very accurate. It predicted that the USD/SGD will remain locked in range, which is exactly what happened during April.

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More Losses for the USD/JPY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 108.12, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Trendline #USD/JPY #Fomc #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Decline #Downtrend #Average True Range
The USD/JPY had a remarkable run since the second half of 2016. We saw the pair rally by almost 2,000 pips from the lows to hit 118.65. But in the past few months the gains have stalled and recently the trendline underpinning the move higher has been broken, as you can see on the weekly chart below.
We’re already down by almost 700 pips right now but bodies in motion tend to stay in motion. And currencies in a downtrend tend to continue in that direction. I’m targeting more of the same during A…
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Cable to Rally Post-Brexit

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2989, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #UK #Boe #GBP/USD #Cable #Rally #Us Dollar #Bottom #Average True Range #Brexit
I expect Cable to rally in the aftermath of the start of Brexit negotiations. First reason for this is the fact that the worst is now behind the UK. Markets have pummelled the Pound in the ground already discounted a lot of negative scenarios. Thus a positive surprise could led to large GBP rally.
The second reason is our first chart above. Notice the three bottoms pattern. Some may see an irregular Head and Shoulders formation. In any case it looks like the bears have checked out and the bulls…
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Slow Recovery Underway in NZD/USD

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7339 , Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Rally #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Recovery #Uptrend #Momentum
A slow recovery is underway in the Kiwi. As we can see from our first chart below, prices bottomed out in August of last year and since then we’ve been going up slowly.
Recently that trend hit a small bump in road as general risk aversion across all markets led to NZD selling. The Kiwi gets sold because it’s a risk-on currency, people hold it for carry and unwind these trades during bad times.
Nonetheless as we can see on the second daily chart below, the trend seems to be back up! Prices only…
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Another Range-Bound Month for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0654, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Ecb #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Greenback #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion
The Euro had another range-bound month. We opened March at 1.0576, first traded to a low of 1.0494, then to a high of 1.0906, only to fall back down to 1.0654 today.
The chart above shows this volatile but ultimately indecisive market movement. On our second chart below we can see that this range-bound movement has been happening for the past few months, not just one month. The large rectangle on this chart shows March while the smaller ones show important turning points in the market.
Notice ho…
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Aussie Back on the Offensive

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7990, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rally #Us Dollar #Australian Dollar #Pullback #Average True Range #Risk Sentiment
The Australian Dollar is back on the offensive. This month we got yet another test of the important resistance in the 0.7700 – 0.7800 area. Prices peaked at 0.7749 this time around before pulling back.
However the move lower wasn’t Aussie specific but happened on general risk aversion across all markets. This gives me reason to think that the next time prices rally toward the resistance we could get a breakout above.
Our final chart above shows this resistance area. You can see that it’s been …
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Kiwi in Bullish Trend

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7471, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Bullish #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Moving Average #Average True Range #50 Ema #25 Ema
The Kiwi has entered a bullish trend. On our first chart below we see that the 25 day (in blue) and 50 day (in red) exponential moving averages are trending higher, with the 25 above the 50 EMA. This indicates that a bullish trend has commenced in this currency pair.
But just how far can this rally go? The 20 month Average True Range is currently at 370 pips. But of course this is the high to low range, not the open to close range we need to estimate a target.
I’ll be placing my forecast just be…
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