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EURUSD | MAY BE IN RANGE

killer195175_reborn Posted 7 Jan. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1900, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Eurusd #Support #Resistance #Prediction #EUR/USD #Range Bound
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Resistance and support lines, Trendlines, Price action, Candlestick Pattern, MACD, RSI, Simple Moving Average and Stochastic Fast Indicator, Ellipse.

EURUSD Weekly Chart
  • The MACD on the weekly chart is in the positive zone and rising.
  • The RSI is rising.
  • The Stochastics is also rising.
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killer195175_reborn 22 Jan.

UPDATE_1
The pair has closed the week below 1.2300 after testing it. The immediate sell of at 1.2300 levels hints a strong resistance there. I think that if price break below 1.2165 then we can see our target of 1.1900 if it is able to close below the rising trendline also of course. Till it does not break rising trendline the bias will be bullish only.

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GBPUSD WILL BE RANGEBOUND

killer195175 Posted 12 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3230, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Gbpusd #Range Bound #Falling Trendline #Rising Trendline #Horizontal Suppot
Technical Tools
Resistance and support lines, Trendlines, Price action, Candlestick Pattern, MACD, RSI, Ellipse.
GBPUSD Weekly Chart
  • The MACD on the weekly chart is in the positive zone.
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killer195175 26 Nov.

UPDATE-3
The pair is currently trading at 1.3334 at the time of writing this update which is 100 pips above our level of 1.3230. I expect the pair to rise to 1.3400 levels before falling back to 1.3250. Until now the pair is moving as per expectations. Next week the collision with the falling trendline at 1.3400 will decide the fate of the pair. I am bearish on the pair and would love to sell it at 1.34000 levels.

killer195175 avatar
killer195175 27 Nov.

UPDATE-4
The pair is currently trading at 1.3325 at the time of writing this update which is 96 pips above our level of 1.3230. The pair made a high of 1.3383 before falling to the open price of today. If it closes day below 1.3325 then it will make a gravestone doji at the falling trendline, which is a very strong signal that sellers have jumped into the market. Now we can sell the pair with the stop loss above 1.3383 and target 1.3230. I hope the chart makes the thing more clear.

killer195175 avatar
killer195175 9 Dec.

UPDATE-5
The pair is finding it difficult to stay above the trendline that it has broken a few days ago. On Friday the pair closed at 1.33789 making a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.Now the pair is at the confluence of the rising and falling trendline. It may act as a support, but if it doesn't then the pair may fall to 1.32500 level which is also our target for 2nd Jan.

killer195175 avatar
killer195175 15 Dec.

UPDATE-6
The pair tested 1.3305 today and the last significant low is at 1.3303. I will say a close below 1.3303 is required on the daily chart to expose 1.3035 levels. Such pairs are a beauty to trade.

killer195175 avatar
killer195175 24 Dec.

UPDATE-7
After making a high of 1.3550 last week the pair has made a low of 1.3303. We need a good reason for further sell off in the pair. So I am expecting the pair to settle the month near 1.3400 levels. To reach our target of 1.3230 there is need of a catalyst which may not get during holidays.

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EUR/TRY Still Can't Break Past Resistance

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.1110, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #Eurozone #Weekly #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY still can't break the important resistance around 4.17 - 4.18 Euros. As we can see on the chart below, the pair tried hard to break free only to be pushed back down below this level.
But I'm not ready to bet on EUR/TRY losses just yet. On the lower time-frames (below) we're seeing the struggle as well. All summer the pair has stayed ranged-bound. I see no reason for this to change now, so betting on more of the same and prices staying near here seems like a prudent choice.
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Singapore Dollar Oversold on Bigger Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3559, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD/SGD #Down Trend #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Oversold #Stochastic Indicator #Range Bound #Below 20
The Singapore Dollar seems to be oversold on all the bigger timeframes. The pair from a high of over 1.4500 to 1.3500 right now. This is a large move for a currency that mostly follows the USD.
On the first weekly chart above we are seeing that the USD/SGD is already oversold on the weekly charts. The 5,3,3 Stochastic Oscillator is printing values below 20, indicating that the selling may be overdone.
On the second chart below we are seeing a similar situation on the daily chart, with values bel…
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fxsurprise8 2 Sep.

Everything went according to plan with my forecast. The pair spent the month of August in a range, as can be seen on the chart above.

The August price action is marked with a rectangle on the picture. We opened the month at 1.35742 and closed it at 1.35729, a percentage change of less then 0.01%.

My forecast bet on the pair staying near the what was then the current market price of 1.3559. at 12:00 on September 1st the pair was trading at 1.35451. This is a percentage difference of only 0.10%.

(more below)

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2 Sep.

Overall the intra-month price action suit the forecast too. The monthly high stands at 1.3688 and the low at 1.3504.

This is only 184 pips or a percentage variation of only 1.34%, fairly low even for the forex market. Furthermore as we see in the picture in my previous comment, the lows got quickly bought up and the highs got sold.

This suits in the narrative presented in the opening post of price being oversold and stuck in the main downward trend. These two conflicting forces kept the USD/SGD in a range during August. Overall a solid analysis that panned out nicely.

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More of the Same for the Turkish Lira

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.1622, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #4H Chart #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Weekly Chart #Range Box #Turkish Lira
I expect to see more of the same in the EUR/TRY. The pair has been trading range-bound on the lower timeframe 4 hour chart, as the picture below clearly shows. There were several attempts to break above the 4.16 - 4.17 resistance area, with no success.
On the bigger weekly chart (below) we're seeing the same price behavior. Here too price is bouncing against important resistance and again it is the 4.17 level, same as on the 4h chart.
Because of this timeframes confluence I don't think the pair …
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Swedish Krona Stays Flat in July

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5537, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #4H Chart #Euro #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The Swedish Krona stayed mostly flat during July. The pair opened the month at 9.62 and closed it at 9.55. In percentage terms this is only 0.73%.
The chart above shows that this range narrowed further during the second part of the month. During this time-period the EUR/SEK moved between a low of 9.50 and a high of 9.62. But most of the time was spend in the middle of this range doing nothing.
On the longterm weekly chart above we see that the current smaller 4h range in right in the middle. In …
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EUR/GBP Overbought on Larger Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8961, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #EUR/GBP #Pound #Overbought #Stochastic Indicator #Range Bound #Range Trading #Mean Reversion
The EUR/GBP is overbought on the larger timeframes. The pair had a +600 pips rally since April of this year and +2,000 pips rally since the lows hit in 2015.
For a mostly range-bound pair this is too much. Technical indicators seem to confirm this view. The Stochastic Oscillator on the weekly hart is showing a value over 80, indicating overbought market sentiment.
Our final chart below shows that things aren't looking rosy for the bulls on the shorter-term charts either. Here we see the EUR/GBP …
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Multiple Years Range Remains Unbroken

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.1787, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Europe #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.1782. This is around 6 percent, a negligible price difference for several years of trading in the forex market. Most currency pairs moved that much in a two-three months.
If that doesn't convince you of the mean reverting nature of this pair then take a look at the blue line in the chart above. This is the…
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EUR/TRY Stuck in a Large Triangle

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.9712, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY has been stuck in large triangle all year. Notice how prices keep trading in a smaller and smaller range on the weekly chart below. While this will eventually result in a breakout, I think this wont happen during June as there is still room to maneuver inside the triangle.
On our next chart below we're seeing that mean-reversion has been the name of the game for 2017 in this currency pair. Every dip was bought and every rally was sold into. Prices now are not much different from pric…
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Gains in EUR/GBP Likely Over

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8731, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #EUR/GBP #Overbought Status #Stochastic Indicator #Swing Low #Range Bound #Swing High #Mean Reversion
The EUR/GBP is approaching overbought levels. After the latest 400 pips rally on the daily chart below we peaked at 80 on the Stoch and we're now dropping down. The gains likely coming to an end here.
On our second chart below we're seeing that this currency pair has been range-bound for almost one year, since September of 2016. Notice the swings up and down, every rally is being sold into while every drip is being bought. Furthermore here too we're seeing the Stochastic Oscillator above 80, sig…
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