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Day 13

fr33m4n Posted 13 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Recovery #Technical Trading
I have started staging a possible recovery on the trading account. Also, I try my hands on binary touch contest, it is very appealing.
Today's profit was from selling the Usdsek market, which has been trending up, but now looking bearish.
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NZD/USD recovers on the back of US dollar weakness

al_dcdemo Posted 16 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Recovery #Inflation Expectations #D1 Chart #U S Dollar Weakness #Risk Mood
NZD/USD has almost completely recovered since it hit 38.2% retracement of the November - January rally last week. Inflation Expectations came in firm but the U.S. dollar weakness is the main driver. If positive risk mood holds, the pair could be on the way to retest 0.75 and possibly beyond, to the highest level since 2015.
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TGISS!!

P3tr4 Posted 7 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Recovery #40K Trades
I have entered recovery trading mode. I am down by a lot, so it is time to smarten up..
Still on gbpusd, I have bullish bias, but upside could be severely limited..
If it sinks, I will sell..I am committed to market action only..
Happy trading folks and have a great week ahead.
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EURUsd breaks back above 1.12

AdamFx42 Posted 23 June  in #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Recovery #Stronger
Bit of a surprise to me - but EurUsd recovers at the end of the week
I did not see this coming - but EurUsd breaks back above 1.12
just before market close and weekend
UsdJpy and GbpUsd have hardly moved today - but EurUsd did for some reason
It is not clear to me what the driver is here
If EurUsd can hold above 1.12 for the weekend it will look more bullish next week
have a great weekend all!
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Slow Recovery Underway in NZD/USD

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7339 , Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Rally #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Recovery #Uptrend #Momentum
A slow recovery is underway in the Kiwi. As we can see from our first chart below, prices bottomed out in August of last year and since then we’ve been going up slowly.
Recently that trend hit a small bump in road as general risk aversion across all markets led to NZD selling. The Kiwi gets sold because it’s a risk-on currency, people hold it for carry and unwind these trades during bad times.
Nonetheless as we can see on the second daily chart below, the trend seems to be back up! Prices only…
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Large Gains for the Kiwi

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7381, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Recovery #New Zealand #Bounce #New Zealand Dollar
The NZD/USD spent most of last year in the dulldrums. The currency fell from 0.7800 to a low of 0.6071 before retracing somewhat. We are currently quoted at 0.6980.
But there are signs that a recovery is under way. On the chart below we can see that the NZD/USD has just cleared an important resistance area around 0.6900. After two-three false breaks, we're finally leaving this resistance behind.
I'm placing my bet on 0.7381, this is around 400 pips away from the current price. The average monthl…
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wisdom_consultant 25 May

good analyses

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Febuari Contest mainly about GBP/USD to me

AdamFx42 Posted 1 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Recovery #Long Positions
In this contest my focus will be on Gbp longs
I have started off the contest with a long position Gbp/Aud, which I plan to ride to at least 2.05
and a Gbp/Usd long - smaller position - that I plan to TP around 1.44
I have buy stops waiting in Eur/Aud and Gbp/Nzd to add to profits
gl all
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GBP/USD testing support

AdamFx42 Posted 4 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Recovery #Long Position
I opened a long position in Gbp/Usd today
Gbp/Usd tested support around 1.47 last night and a buy limit that I had waiting was triggered
I went long just above 1.47 and will be looking for a recovery
Although it looks like Gbp/Usd is down I believe this to be a false breakout
The price is just too low at the moment, and Eur/Usd is recovering as I type this
and Usd will weaken more, as is my prediction for this month
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USD/JPY to stay supported

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 121.2500, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Recovery #Uptrend #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #50 Week Sma #Unclear Direction
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After a weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster …
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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Japan will release several lower-tier indicators next week but nothing market moving. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Unless the data or the ECB or any external shock makes it move, the pair will likely stay in its recent (122 - 124) range until Friday (NFP).

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al_dcdemo 8 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Final revision of Japanese GDP showed that the economy expanded in Q3 rather than contracted. Worries that the country entered a recession were diluted last week after much better than expected capital spending report. This may put some downside pressure on the pair. Technically, the pair has been confined to a 150 pip range (122.25 - 123.75) for nearly a month. 50, 100 and 200 DMA, which are just about to converge, are a part of support band between 121.50 and 122.00. 124.00 - 124.25, which includes a trendline drawn off of June and August highs, may prove to be a decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 16 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment in stock markets improved today while ten-year U.S. treasury yield gained 7bp. In addition, there was a broader U.S. dollar buying throughout the second part of the day - a lot if it must have been position adjustment ahead of tomorrow's big event. USD/JPY rallied 120 pips from the lows and gained nearly 70 pips on the day after it bounced from the trendline, drawn off of August and October lows. The pair is currently trading just above the confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA (~121-50), which will need to stay above if it wants to improve technical picture.

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. There's nothing on the calendar from Japan, after Retail Sales and Industrial Production data were released earlier today. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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AUD/USD to correct after blow-off bottom

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7475, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakdown #Recovery #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma #Deeper Pullback
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently sitting between 61.8% retracem…
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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 2: Next week will be big for the pair as we will get GDP, Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports along with plethora of lower-tier economic indicators. On top of that, RBA will meet on Tuesday. US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports. Technically, if the blow-off bottom hypothesis is correct, the pair has to rise, preferably from the off. Initial resistance is seen in 0.7200 - 0.7250 band.

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al_dcdemo 5 Sep.

UPDATE 3: RBA stood pat at their meeting and, following muted initial response, the pair sold off - basically just continuing in the macro direction. After two days of consolidation the pair broke 0.70 level and fell almost full cent from there, closing on the lows. Percentage-wise, the pair was the loser of the week, shedding nearly 3.0% of its value.

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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Employment report, NAB Business Confidence and Chinese Trade Balance have the potential to move the pair in the week ahead along with PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States. April 2009 low (0.6853) is the first stronger support level ahead of March 30th 2009 low (0.6769). 0.70 shall now act as a decent resistance, should the pair turn up.

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The most notable development in the pair this week was its rejection of sub 0.70 prices. While Tuesday's rally may be viewed as a normal pullback (albeit quite strong), the speed, with which the second dip below 0.70 was soaked up, implies that perhaps a deeper pullback is in the making. The pair hasn't managed to retrace last week's range in full but appears poised to close the week near the high.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: We'll get Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA Bulletin and two RBA speeches (Debelle, Stevens) in the week ahead but all that will be shadowed by a far more important event - the long awaited September FOMC meeting. If the Fed hikes rates but sends a dovish message, the dip may prove to be a decent buying opportunity. If they don't hike, then the path to 0.75 may be clear.

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