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NZD/USD to hold above 0.70

al_dcdemo Posted 27 July as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Big Figure Level #Dovish Rbnz #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA for the most of the year while 0.70 …
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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Another subdued weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, there's a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by the NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, running stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged on the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's pullback/reversal. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later in 2016.

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al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Last Friday's speech by the Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about room for further monetary policy easing made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Even though the official end of summer doldrums is after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., we've seen increased participation this week. Last Friday's move after the Fed's Yellen speech sparked some volatility although she offered nothing particularly new. If anything, I think the market was positioned for a less hawkish (maybe even dovish) speech. September rate hike is however back on the table which makes Friday's NFP report a very important one. We'll get ADP Nonfarm Employment Change in a couple of hours  and the reaction to it may be more than usual.

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AUD/USD to start the year with gains

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7425, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Ascending Channel #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 4: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Aussie opened with a gap up but promptly lost 50 pips to 0.6925 before it then turned back up again and surged towards 0.6980 - 0.7000. It looks supported since.

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al_dcdemo 14 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Australian currency continues to be offered. It so far declined more than a cent from yesterday's high, though it has moved mostly sideways during the past couple of hours. Marginally better than expected labour market report didn't manage to turn the sentiment around. Cycle-low, set last September near 0.6910, is within reach of few pips and is an immediate support ahead of the April 2009 low (~0.6850) and 0.68 level. Broken 0.6950 level (also previous day and week low) is now acting as a solid resistance.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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AUD/USD looks bullish while still consolidating

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7325, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 61.8% retrac…
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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The pair started the last day of the year on a solid footing, continuing the strength that has been seen throughout both holiday weeks. December's high (~0.7385) is the initial target ahead of 200 DMA (currently ~0.7415) though we probably won't see either of them achieved before next week. Buyers are likely to start coming in at 0.73 and below, keeping the pair well contained.

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al_dcdemo 1 Jan.

UPDATE 10: Moves on the last day of the year were relatively big, reflecting final adjustments for the year in low liquidity. However, Aussie was not where the greatest action was. It's daily range was in fact the second smallest (~60 pips), behind the Kiwi (~45 pips) - as opposed to Swissie (~155 pips) and Cable (~120 pips). Last bid price before the end of the contest period was 0.72864, that's 38.6 pips below my target (0.7325). A good prediction with decent accuracy.

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foreignexchange 1 Jan.

Great  Analysis : )
Tanti auguri al_dcdemo
Do you think that the Oil retracement could improve at the opening session the forecast ?

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al_dcdemo 1 Jan.

foreignexchange Thank you! I too expect some oil strength in the first week of the year. It may definitely lend some support to the Aussie, but won't matter for this forecast though. :)

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AUD/USD consolidating, but higher lows noted

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7275, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Uncertainty #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma
Monthly chart
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near the 0.70 lev…
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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Aussie fell less than 50 pips immediately after much weaker than expected capex report, which was published yesterday. The pair didn't follow through lower but instead went sideways. That may be a sign of strength but it may also be due to thin holiday trading. We'll find out soon enough, when liquidity returns. 0.72 (100 DMA) should hold if the uptrend is to continue smoothly. 0.7150 (50 DMA, Broken Weekly Trendline) may prove to be a decent support in the event of a deeper pullback. 0.73 (Weekly Resistance 1) is the first resistance ahead of 0.7350 (Monthly Resistance 1).

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: After two weeks of gains, Australian dollar lost some 40 pips against the U.S. dollar with the weekly range of 120 pips. The pair started the week with a pullback and then rallied to new highs for the month. It was in the middle of another technical pullback when much weaker than expected capex report hit the wires. Although the impact was not so great at the time, the selling continued until the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: There will be plethora of Australian data releases in the next week, including GDP and Trade Balance, along with the RBA meeting. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead features: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Depending on the outcome of aforementioned fundamental events, there is scope for the pair to retest the broken weekly trendline in the days ahead.

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al_dcdemo 30 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Aussie started the week with a 20 pip drop but it recovered to be around opening levels as I type. Commodities (particularly metals) are down, Chinese stocks too, but there was some encouraging data (MI Inflation Gauge, Company Operating Profits, Private Sector Credit) from Australia overnight. 0.7125 - 0.7150 support zone, that includes Previous Week Low, 50 DMA and broken Weekly Trendline (drawn off of September 2014, May 2015 and October 2015 highs), is crucial. 0.7200 - 0.7225, which hosts 100 DMA, is the immediate resistance.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 10: RBA held rates plus there was some positive data from Australia and China overnight. The pair broke above last week's high in Asian session. 0.73 capped a second wave in early Europe and the pair is currently pausing below the big figure. The pair remained in a broad consolidation during the month of November, finishing just above its mid point, which is consistent with my forecast.

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AUD/USD may consolidate into year-end

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7175, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Consolidation #Breakdown #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma #Delayed Lift Off
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently holding near 0.70 level.…
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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: The week started with a fake continuation higher on Monday followed by a sharp decline on Tuesday and in the first hours of Wednesday. A rally ensued which took the pair 160 pips higher to 100 DMA ahead of the above-mentioned weekly trendline. That proved to be the top and the pair fell back towards a classical symmetrical triangle consolidaton pattern bottom.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: After trading sideways and ever tighter from the beginning of the week, Aussie broke below the bottom of the symmetrical triangle at the start of today's European session. Next target is October 14th low (~0.72) and then 50 DMA (~0.7160) but the correction may extend all the way to 0.70 - 0.71. 100 DMA has so far held the topside, reinforced by the trendline drawn off September 5th 2014 and May 14th 2015 highs.

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al_dcdemo 23 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Aussie retested the bottom trendline of the broken symmetrical triangle before it sold off on news that the PBOC cut rates again. While this is generally supportive for risk assets, it is momentarily viewed as signaling a weakness in Chinese economy. 50 DMA (~0.7150) may be a good spot to go long, especially if the Fed sends another dovish message at next week's FOMC meeting.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Aussie fell nearly a cent overnight, on the back of weaker than expected inflation report. The report came out weaker on all measures and prompted some speculation about next week's RBA rate cut. The pair broke 50 DMA in the process and is currently trading just below it. 0.71 is the next support level to watch. 0.7175 - 0.7200 looks like a decent resistance now.

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foreignexchange 2 Nov.

Great analysis : )

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AUD/USD to correct after blow-off bottom

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7475, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakdown #Recovery #Easing Bias #Downtrend #Risk Off #Big Figure Level #50 Week Sma #Deeper Pullback
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year and convincingly broke below 0.80 and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but tried to break higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July to resume the downtrend. It is currently sitting between 61.8% retracem…
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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 2: Next week will be big for the pair as we will get GDP, Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports along with plethora of lower-tier economic indicators. On top of that, RBA will meet on Tuesday. US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports. Technically, if the blow-off bottom hypothesis is correct, the pair has to rise, preferably from the off. Initial resistance is seen in 0.7200 - 0.7250 band.

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al_dcdemo 5 Sep.

UPDATE 3: RBA stood pat at their meeting and, following muted initial response, the pair sold off - basically just continuing in the macro direction. After two days of consolidation the pair broke 0.70 level and fell almost full cent from there, closing on the lows. Percentage-wise, the pair was the loser of the week, shedding nearly 3.0% of its value.

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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Employment report, NAB Business Confidence and Chinese Trade Balance have the potential to move the pair in the week ahead along with PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from the United States. April 2009 low (0.6853) is the first stronger support level ahead of March 30th 2009 low (0.6769). 0.70 shall now act as a decent resistance, should the pair turn up.

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The most notable development in the pair this week was its rejection of sub 0.70 prices. While Tuesday's rally may be viewed as a normal pullback (albeit quite strong), the speed, with which the second dip below 0.70 was soaked up, implies that perhaps a deeper pullback is in the making. The pair hasn't managed to retrace last week's range in full but appears poised to close the week near the high.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: We'll get Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, RBA Bulletin and two RBA speeches (Debelle, Stevens) in the week ahead but all that will be shadowed by a far more important event - the long awaited September FOMC meeting. If the Fed hikes rates but sends a dovish message, the dip may prove to be a decent buying opportunity. If they don't hike, then the path to 0.75 may be clear.

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AUD/USD to resume downtrend

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7275, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Rba #Fake Breakout #Decline #Bearish Bias #Rba Governor Stevens #Big Figure Level #Four Month Range #Technical And Fundamental Weakness
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7950 range, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout appears to have been fake as the pair returned back to the range.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level touted by …
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al_dcdemo 31 May

I was bullish too, but the latest data was really weak. The pair will need to break below 0.75 though in the days ahead or the sentiment will turn around quickly.

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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 3: RBA meeting on Tuesday ended as widely expected - with no change. But the market appeared to have been expecting a bit more dovishness from them as when that did not materialize, correction ensued that lifted the pair nearly 200 pips on the day. Final flush-out came on Wednesday after better than expected GDP number and then the pair turned back lower. NFP on Friday sent the pair testing Monday low into 0.76 but was unable to break it.

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al_dcdemo 7 June

UPDATE 4: 50 and 100 DMA capped the pair on Wednesday and will be the first two levels to overcome, if the pair wants to improve its technical picture. Continuation lower and retest of March low appears more likely at the moment and if the pair manages to break below that, May 18th 2009 (0.7450) and May 6th 2009 (0.7336) lows may offer some support before the confluence of 61.8% retracement (of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend) and 76.4% retracement (of the 2008 to 2011 rally) near 0.72.

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al_dcdemo 14 June

UPDATE 5: That the bears are in control was evident on Monday when the pair was unable to completely reverse post-NFP losses as was the case in most other majors. After range-bound Tuesday it managed to break higher on Wednesday but the weakness was again obvious on Thursday when it was unable to extend the gains after much better than expected jobs report. The pair went sideways instead, leaving inside candle on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the RBA is the only high impact risk event from Australia in the week ahead. But that's not to say that we won't see some volatility as there are two important events coming up from the US: FOMC meeting and inflation report. Two-week range between 0.76 and 0.78 appears to be the most likely place for the pair until one of the events pushes it through either side.

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