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EUR/AUD reversal with rising wedge?

Pete69 Posted 22 Aug.  in #Reversal #Euraud #Rising Wedge
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AUD/JPY likely to consolidate

mrlfx Posted 14 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/JPY, Target: 85.55, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/JPY #Support And Resistance #Elliot Waves #Rising Wedge
AUD/JPY is likely consolidating after completing tracing the 5 emotive elliot waves. The pair is now tracing the wave a of the 3 eaves a-b-c.
Main Support and Resistant Levels are
89.55
88.00
85.75
81.60
76.05
72.60
Daily Chart
Weekly Chart
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CHF/JPY is likely to rise

mrlfx Posted 5 Sep. as Analysis on CHF/JPY, Target: 119.55, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF/JPY #Support And Resistance #Elliot Waves #Rising Wedge
CHF/JPY is will probably rise and moves towards resistant level of 121.80 to complete the wave 5 of the 5 emotive elliot waves. The pair is also moving inside a rising wedge.
Major Support and Resistant Levels:
121.80
118.65
115.40
112.40
108.00
102.85
Daily Chart
Weekly Chart
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EUR/USD is likely to reverse

mrlfx Posted 19 July  in #Trader's blog #Support And Resistance #Elliot Waves #Rising Wedge
EUR/USD is likely to reverse its bullish bias and fall towards 1.1300 support level. The pair also has completed 5 emotive elliot waves and is probably tracing the wave a.
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EUR/NOK is likely to fall

mrlfx Posted 12 July as Analysis on EUR/NOK, Target: 9.3452, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/NOK #Support And Resistance #Elliot Waves #Rising Wedge
EUR/NOK is likely to fall. The pair is currently tracing a rising wedge which is a bearish pattern. The pair probably also has already completed the 5 emotive elliot waves is reversing to trave wave a.
Major Support and Resistant Levels are:
9.7385
9.5490
9.3225
9.2465
9.0840
8.7940
Daily Chart
Weekly Chart
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USD/CHF is bullish

mrlfx Posted 1 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0230, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Forecast #USD/CHF #Usdchf #Support/resistance #Moving Average #Elliot Waves #Rising Wedge
USD/CHF is above the 88 EMA is bullish bias. It is probably tracing to complete the wave 5 of the 5 emotive elliot waves.
Indicators/Patterns used in the technical analysis are Moving Average, Ellit Waves, Wedge Pattern and Support and Resistance.
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GBP/NZD. Febrero

Debian Posted 18 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/NZD, Target: 1.89511, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #NZD #GBP/NZD #Wedge Formation #Pullback #Rising Wedge
Análisis Técnico Gbp/Nzd, para el 1 de Febrero de 2017. Objetivo 1.89511
El par Gbp/Nzd venía de una tendencia bajista en los últimos meses, desde la caída de la libra y los mínimos alcanzados el 6 de octubre y el 8 de Noviembre.
Desde estos mínimos, inició una recuperación en un movimiento contenido en una cuña ascendente, dentro de la normalidad.
La semana pasada, se produjo la rotura bajista de la formación de cuña que debería llevar al precio a la zona marcada como “Caída Esperada” en los…
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2 Comments
Debian avatar
Debian 18 Dec.

Como primer comentario: Las posibilidades para mañana
https://www.dukascopy.com/tradercontest/?action=post-read&post_id=122501

Elens94 avatar
Elens94 19 Dec.

Good analysis!

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Kiwi uptrend to remain intact

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7225, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Strong Support #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA whil…
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al_dcdemo 14 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Kiwi remains well bid as we head into the FOMC decision later today. Unless they deliver a dovish or an extremely hawkish surprise, I think that after the decision technicals will come back into focus. This is also supported by a lack of market moving economic data from New Zealand this week. The pair established a firm foothold above 50 DMA, which I see as the current bull/bear line in sand. Below that, 200 DMA is the first in a series of strong levels all the way down to 0.6950. October high (0.7265) is the initial target before 0.73 and November high (0.74).

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 17 Dec.

UPDATE 6: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday liquidity will mean more volatility rather than ranges.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 22 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Better than expected New Zealand GDP for Q3 didn't have much of an impact as Q2 was revised lower by an equal amount. U.S./New Zealand bond spreads have been falling since Q3 which has lead Kiwi to adjust lower. The pair broke below the 2015 - 2016 channel a couple of days ago but stalled near 0.69. 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 upswing is the next target but a pullback to the big figure at 0.70 or 200 DMA is not excluded.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holiday season. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: The final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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Kiwi to continue trending up

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Oct. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7325, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #Confluence #NZD/USD #Rising Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Balanced Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a rising wedge. It has held above 50 week SMA and recently also above 100 week SMA whil…
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al_dcdemo 10 Nov.

UPDATE 5: The RBNZ cut the official cash rate to a record low of 1.75% from 2.00% yesterday. Governor Wheeler said that it was likely the last rate cut in this cycle but that they stand ready to intervene in the currency market at any time. Kiwi was initially bought but reversed soon thereafter on intervention talk, aligning with the current U.S. dollar trade. The pair broke below 50 and 100 DMA today and is currently recovering from a sub 0.72 dip. Sellers may be waiting closer to 0.7250.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 6: In the second week after the U.S. election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 Nov.

UPDATE 7: New Zealand dollar was the least volatile currency during the U.S. election day. Part of it was likely due to the fact that the RBNZ held a meeting on the next day. Widely expected rate cut didn't exactly matter as the currency joined others in a sell-off. The pair has so far lost about 400 pips and closed lower in eight consecutive days. It closed last week below the 2015 - 2016 trendline and 200 DMA, which may now act as a resistance. Area between 0.6880 and 0.70 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 WMA, 100 WMA) should see some demand.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Kiwi dollar took advantage of yesterday's U.S. dollar weakness and bounced smartly after it broke below a confluence of October low, 2015 - 2016 trendline, 200 DMA and 0.70 level. The currency is a top G10 high-yielder and should stay in favour even as U.S. dollar yields gradually rise. The current pullback may find some resistance at the late October lows (0.71) and then near 50 and 100 DMA (0.72). Area between 0.70 and 0.6880 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 WMA, 100 WMA, H2 2015 highs) will come into focus, should the downtrend reassert itself.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G8 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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AUDCAD

killer195175 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 1.01500, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/CAD #Bearish #Support Line #Rising Wedge #Resistance Line
The AUDCAD pair looks like making a rising wedge with the apex of the wedge at 13 DEC 2016 valued at 1.02250. According to the wedge drawn by me the price if it obeys the wedge till 1st Nov then upper line is at 1.01920 and lower line is at 1.00320. So I assume that the price will be between these two levels on 1 Nov 16 at 1200 GMT.
DAILY CHART
4H CHART

The real uptrend or downtrend will be decided only after the pair breaks below or above the support line and resistance line respectively.
Ha…
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