Community Blog
A volatile turn of the month in FX markets
Quite some action in FX markets at the turn of the month. Several pairs (EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD) broke their respective 200 DMA, and few other ones (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD) their 50 DMA, which sparked some momentum. Stock markets turning lower has also contributed to the volatility.
AUD/USD nearing 0.80
Australian dollar started the week on the front foot and is approaching 0.7975 - 0.80 area, where it is likely to encounter at least some resistance. It's Martin Luther King Day today in the U.S. - thinner liquidity could lead to either tighter volatility or outsized moves.
Tax cut bill
Today, the tax cut bill has past.
Please be cautious at the sunday night open.
This is going to have a big impact on indices and the forex markets.
How is this going to shape markets in 2018?
1 Thing is for sure: volatility is back! Now that the some uncertainty has been taken out of the markets and we can go for a certain direction.
~~MyHedge~~
Please be cautious at the sunday night open.
This is going to have a big impact on indices and the forex markets.
How is this going to shape markets in 2018?
1 Thing is for sure: volatility is back! Now that the some uncertainty has been taken out of the markets and we can go for a certain direction.
~~MyHedge~~
Loonies consolidates after a big move
USD/CAD appears to be in the process of making a (short-term) bottom above the 50.0% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. Volatility fell in recent days as the pair consolidates after selling off following the second consecutive rate hike by the BOC.
Many are expecting one more hike from the bank as early as this year and that should keep sellers involved. 1.2230 - 1.2250 is the initial resistance and the next one somewhere in 1.23 - 1.2350 area. Buyers were seen near 1.2125.
Many are expecting one more hike from the bank as early as this year and that should keep sellers involved. 1.2230 - 1.2250 is the initial resistance and the next one somewhere in 1.23 - 1.2350 area. Buyers were seen near 1.2125.
Cable recovers from the dip to 1.2590
Cable had a pretty volatile week. It started with an outside down day on Monday. On Tuesday the pair fell more than a cent, after Carney uttered his "now is not time to raise rates". Then on Wednesday it snapped back after BOE dove Haldane revealed that he nearly voted for a hike.
Thursday was a sideways (accumulation?) day and the pair extended gains today, touching 1.274 shortly after London open. 1.265 - 1.27 should attract some buyers if this rally is to continue. 1.275 - 1.28 is where selle…
Thursday was a sideways (accumulation?) day and the pair extended gains today, touching 1.274 shortly after London open. 1.265 - 1.27 should attract some buyers if this rally is to continue. 1.275 - 1.28 is where selle…
USD/SGD Range-bound for Almost 2 Years
The USD/SGD continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price. But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.
The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. The second chart below show a similar picture on the larger time-frame chart. He…
The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. The second chart below show a similar picture on the larger time-frame chart. He…
Singapore Dollar Still Locked in Range
The Singapore Dollar is still trading locked in a range vs the US dollar, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second chart demonstrates this point even more clearly, as we're seeing the currency pair swing back and forth aimlessly.
The second chart demonstrates this point even more clearly, as we're seeing the currency pair swing back and forth aimlessly.
AUD/NZD in Range on Multiple Timeframes
The AUD/NZD has been trading in a tight 550 pips range since July of 2016. On our first chart below we can see that the high of this range is around 1.0770 while the low is at 1.0220.
Zooming out a bit we're seeing another range, inside which the range above can be placed. In fact the AUD/NZD has been congested since the start of 2014. A situation of two years lack of trends is not an easy thing to overcome. Thus I'm placing my forecast at 1.0653, close to the current price.
Zooming out a bit we're seeing another range, inside which the range above can be placed. In fact the AUD/NZD has been congested since the start of 2014. A situation of two years lack of trends is not an easy thing to overcome. Thus I'm placing my forecast at 1.0653, close to the current price.
BEARISH
Indicators: RSI, Volatility, Volume, HMM
Key price levels : 0.931 - 1.002
Weekly Charts pattern : Bearish triangle , rectangle trendless W1 Chart.
Weekly Vision
AUD/CAD is moving in a bearish dynamics delimited by the resistance at 1.002 and the support zone at 0.931. The chart analysis support the bearish bias that can integrated also also with by the volume dynamics and the RSI indicator. The Hidden Markov Model Indicator is compatible with a slightly bearish regime.
Daily Vision
The D…