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EUR/TRY Stalling Around Key Area After Large Gains

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.2111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Resistance #Rally #European Union #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY is stalling around a key resistance area. We're currently quoted at 4.2068, with the previous swing high back in January at 4.1764. This means that the pair hasn't made more then 1% gain all year.
If this wasn't weak enough, on the lower timeframe chart below we're seeing a ranging market. Because of both these charts I'm betting on the EUR/TRY staying range-bound in October.
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EUR/SEK Stays in Range All of 2017

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6228, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Trading #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK is having another ranging year. The pair opened 2017 around the 9.57 handle is now quoted at 9.61, a percentage change of less then half of 1%.
But going back in time doesn't change the picture (see below). Here too we're seeing this currency pair locked in a range most of the time too. In fact except for a brief excursion above the 10 round figure during the US election last year, the EUR/SEK stayed remarkably flat.
The larger range spanned from 9.11 to 9.80, or around 7 percent. Th…
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More of the Same in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #Range #EUR/PLN #Multi Year
The five-and-half years range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3057. This is around 2.6 percent, a very negligible amount for several years of trading.
Dropping down to the 4 Hour chart shows a similar situation. First we fell to a low of 4.15 only to get back all losses in the next few weeks and months. We're now trading at similar prices as back in March, around 4.30.…
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EUR/GBP Returns to the Mean

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8818, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #United Kingdom #Euro #EUR/GBP #European Union #Pound #Mean Reversion #Brexit #Negotiations
The EUR/GBP is slowly returning to the mean. In August the pair dropped from a high of 0.9261 to close the month off at 0.8815. After the large gains during the past few months the pair is finally losing some ground.
But as can see on our next chart, the long-term trend on the weekly chart is still very bullish. These two conflicting trends as well as the congestion area the pair is in right now (see rectangle on chart one) should keep prices in range. Thus I'm betting on more range for the EUR/…
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Range-bound Moves Persist in EUR/SEK

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.4538, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Range Box #Swedish Krona
The smaller range-bound moves persist in the EUR/SEK. The pair opened March around the 9.55 handle and is currently trading at 9.4533, a percentage change of just over 1 percent. The chart also demonstrate a classic V-shaped reversal pattern.
Our second chart below also shows this V-shaped pattern but on much bigger timescale, the weekly chart. Here too we're seeing the EUR/SEK range-bound behavior.
This currency pair keeps being brought back to the 9.50 area, no matter how much it tries to stra…
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EUR/PLN Remains in Multi-Year Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.2454, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #EUR/PLN #Range Box #Multi Year
The near six years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in force. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2453. This is around 4 percent, a very small amount for several years of trading.
The vast majority of the past 6 years the pair has spent between 3.06 and 4.5800. Like we said above, it's currently trading at 4.2453, in the middle of the range still.
On our final chart above we are seeing that the…
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EUR/GBP to Calm Down

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.9209, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #United Kingdom #Euro #EUR/GBP #European Union #Pound #Stochastic #Brexit #Negotiations
The EUR/GBP continues its strong rally. In August the pair advanced by another near 200 pips move and is currently resting above the 0.9000 round figure.
But as you can see on the chart above, indicators are already flashing red. The weekly Stochastic Oscillator is printing values over 90, indicating a very overbought market. On our next chart below we see a similar situation on the monthly chart.
Here too the (5,3,3) Stochastic is printing values over 90. I also added 3 lines to indicate what h…
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More of the Same for EUR/GBP

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8541, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #Euro #EUR/GBP #European Union #Pound #Moving Average #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency
I expect more of the same in the EUR/GBP currency pair. In the past year Cable lost a lot of ground against the Euro, mainly due to Brexit. But as markets discount the event entirely, the pair has stabilized somewhat.
Look at the daily chart above. After an initial bump to 0.9300 in October, prices fell back to the 0.8500 range, where we've been trading since around August of 2016. The blue line on the chart above is the 100-day moving average.
Notice how price started to hug since November 2016…
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fxsurprise8 29 Mar.

UPDATE 2:Time for a second update. Since my previous post the EUR/GBP traded in a very large range of 117 pips. This is a lot for two days of trading in this particular currency pair.

During this time a high of 0.8734 was hit, as well as a low of 0.8617. Nonetheless, ultimately the pair closed today at 0.8656, only 8 pips above the price noted in the update above.

With my target at 0.8541 I will need some Pound strength in the last few days of the contest to bring me closed to my target. Hopefully the official beginning of Brexit will provide some market clarity and allow for some GBP gains.

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fxsurprise8 30 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The EUR/GBP is now quoted at 0.8565, only 21 pips away from my forecasted price of 0.8541.

Today we saw large losses in the Euro across the board and this translated into this pair as well. We opened the day at 0.8656 and steadily fell with only 1 green bar since the Europe open.

Eventually we closed the day near the current market price of 0.8565. Now a top position for my forecast looks doable as the pair is back to its range-bound movement. Wish me luck!

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fxsurprise8 31 Mar.

UPDATE 4: Not good news to report in this update! The pair overshoot my target as the GBP strength continues across the board.

We are now quoted at 0.8492, exactly 49 pips away from my forecasted price at 0.8541. Still I have hope that we'll see the pair head back soon.

We've had 3 large red candles in this pair so far, this is unusual in a mean-reverting pair like the EUR/GBP. With only half a trading day left of the contest (on Monday) anything is possible!

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Time for another update and this time I have a chart! Let's take a look at how this month played out so far.

We opened at 0.8533 (shown by vertical line in the picture above. From here we rallied all the way to a high of 0.8786. This was followed by heavy selling that brought us back down to Earth.

This is typical behavior for mean-reverting pairs like the EUR/GBP. We closed on Friday at 0.8485, only 56 pips below my forecasted price!

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr.

UPDATE 6: After closing near the lows on Friday, this Sunday morning we're seeing a general recovery in all EUR pairs. The gains are not large but they're sizable for this time of day, which tends to be a bit slower.

In the EUR/GBP we gapped open at 0.8469 and continued to slowly drift up to a high of 0.8508. We are currently quoted just slightly below these highs at 0.8505.

This is only 36 pips away from my forecasted price, meaning I have a real shot at a good prize position this month.

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EUR/JPY Range-bound on Long-term Charts

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 118.73, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #European Union #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion #No Trends #V Shaped Reversal
The EUR/JPY has been range-bound for over 8 months now. As you can see on the weekly chart below, the downtrend has been broken and we got a V-shaped reversal. We are now quoted at 118.73, this is the same price as back in June for example.
The situation doesn't look any better on the daily charts as well. Here we can see that the Trump rally from November is slowly being retraced away. Here we got an upside down V-shaped reversal.
In short, while volatility is high prices are not moving much on…
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fxsurprise8 31 Mar.

UPDATE 3: More good news to report! The downtrend in EUR/JPY continued for another day. Not only did the pair fall down to my target but it even exceed it a bit.

We are currently quoted at 118.66, 7 pips below my forecasted price. While the past few days have seen some downward momentum, on the monthly charts  this is still range-bound market.

As a reminder, we opened the monthly at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (today). So lots of volatility but ultimately not going anywhere.

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 4: Time for another update and this time with a chart! The EUR/JPY so far is behaving right as expected.

We forecasted more range this month and as the chart above shows this is exactly what we got.  The vertical line shows the monthly open on March 1st.

We opened the month at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (Friday). We are currently trading very closer to the lows and almost exactly at my 118.73 target. Let's hope for a calm end to this contest!

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr.

UPDATE 5: After closing near the lows on Friday, this Sunday morning we're seeing a general recovery in all EUR pairs. The gains are not large but they're sizable for this time of day, which tends to be a bit slower.

Same happened with te EUR/JPY, that initially saw it gap open 14 pips higher at 118.76. We tend rallied further to 118.97 but fall back down to 118.75 right now.

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fxsurprise8 3 Apr.

UPDATE 6: My initial forecast called for range-bound movement in the EUR/JPY. As evidence I presented two long-term charts (daily and weekly) where we can see a V-shaped reversal, the hallmark of all range-bound markets.

Now we add to this collection the 4 Hour chart (see above). This shows the most recent price action of this currency pair during March and again confirms the ranges by printing yet another V-shaped reversal!

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fxsurprise8 3 Apr.

continued due to word limit: The EUR/JPY opened the month 119.20, then rallied to a high of 122.88. From here we fell to a low of 118.13. We are currently trading at 118.35.

But ultimately the pair 'closed' the contest at 118.69. This was the price printed at 12:00 GMT, according to the Dukascopy charts.

This means that my initial forecast was 'off' my only 4 pips or 0.033%. Not a surprising result given that price action did exactly what I expected. Let's hope that the other guys weren't as lucky so I can finally score a top 1 position in this contest :)

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No Change Expected for Turkish Lira

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.3692, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #European Union #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira
I expect to see little change in the price of the Turkish Lira versus the Euro. Exhibit A below shows that the pair has been stuck in a triangle pattern for the past 14 months (since August of 2015). This a trend-continuation pattern if prices finally manage to break through. But until that happens, betting on more of the same is a no-brainer.
Exhibit B shows a snapshot of the daily price movements. We again notice how the EUR/TRY is trading mostly range-bound since March of this year. We opened…
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fxsurprise8 31 Oct.

The EUR/TRY is now quoted at 3.3954, about 0.77% away from my 3.3692 forecasted price. So far in October we had a range of only 3.1 percent, with a high at 3.4418 and a low at 3.3357.

The movements have been range-bound as well with the pair opening at 3.3665, rallying to a high of 3.4418 in the first few days only to fall to a low of 3.3357 by October 21st.

Closer to the end of the month the lows got bought up and we're now quoted at 3.3954, fairly close to my target as noted above.

Overall my analysis has been mostly correct so far with the EUR/TRY. We're still inside the long-term range.

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