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EUR/SEK Stays in Range All of 2017

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6228, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Trading #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK is having another ranging year. The pair opened 2017 around the 9.57 handle is now quoted at 9.61, a percentage change of less then half of 1%.
But going back in time doesn't change the picture (see below). Here too we're seeing this currency pair locked in a range most of the time too. In fact except for a brief excursion above the 10 round figure during the US election last year, the EUR/SEK stayed remarkably flat.
The larger range spanned from 9.11 to 9.80, or around 7 percent. Th…
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Range-bound Moves Persist in EUR/SEK

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.4538, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Range Box #Swedish Krona
The smaller range-bound moves persist in the EUR/SEK. The pair opened March around the 9.55 handle and is currently trading at 9.4533, a percentage change of just over 1 percent. The chart also demonstrate a classic V-shaped reversal pattern.
Our second chart below also shows this V-shaped pattern but on much bigger timescale, the weekly chart. Here too we're seeing the EUR/SEK range-bound behavior.
This currency pair keeps being brought back to the 9.50 area, no matter how much it tries to stra…
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EUR/SEK Sticks Within Its Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6445, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Ecb #Europe #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Single Currency #Swedish Krona #Trump #Us Elections
The EUR/SEK is still within its long-term range (See chart below). Aside from a brief excursion during the Trump election, the rest of the time the pair is all contained.
On the lower time-frames we see a similar picture. Look at the 4 Hour chart below and all those zig-zags. Prices has been moving aimlessly this month, struggling to find direction.
With both charts saying more of the same (range) I'm inclined to bet on prices staying near the current market price of 9.6445.
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Swedish Krona Settles Back in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5588, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #Support #Resistance #Reversal Pattern #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Single Currency
The Swedish Krona is settling back into its long-term range against the Euro. The pair ventured above the highs of this range at 9.7291 during the chaos after Trump's election victory. But since then we've seen that move slowly retraced back down.
We are currently quoted substantially below the 9.7291 resistance level. And as we can see on our next chart below, the situation doesn't look better on the lower time-frames either. Here too we're seeing range-bound price movement.
The pair opened the…
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fxsurprise8 29 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The pair continues to follow mean reversion, albeit in a bit larger range. Today a low of 9.5412 was hit, soon followed by a high of 9.5734.

Few hours later the momentum shifted again, this time to the downside. The EUR/SEK eventually closed the day at 9.5450, barely changed from the 9.5490 open.

We are currently quoted at 9.5454, only 0.14 percent away from my targeted price. Everything continues to go according to my plan here.

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fxsurprise8 30 Mar.

UPDATE 4: It's starting to look like Groundhog Day here as we got another day with high volatility but little decisive movement in the EUR/SEK.

First the bulls pushed prices all the way up to 9.5679, just below yesterday's high at 9.5734. This was quickly followed by heavy selling again that took us to a low of 0.95435.

We are currently quoted at 9.5451, almost no change compared to the price noted in my previous update (9.5454). Clearly mean-reversion is still at play here.

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fxsurprise8 31 Mar.

UPDATE 5: This pair continues to perform mostly as expected. It's now trading at 9.5558, drifting even closer to my forecasted price at 9.5588.

Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

From here however we got yet another mean-reverting move that brought us back toward the 9.5500 area, where we are trading right now. Clearly my original call for range-bound market in March has been right so far!

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 6: This for another update, this time with a chart. Let's put in a picture what we've been saying in words.

The picture shows the EUR/SEK price action during March. Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

We closed on Friday at 9.5526, barely changed compared to the monthly open. With only half day of trading left on Monday in this contest, odds look good for a top position!

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr.

UPDATE 7: The Euro is having a small revival with the start of the week across the board. While most EUR pairs closed near the lows on Friday, in the early hours on Sunday we're seeing them slowly creep back up!

The Swedish Krona had an interesting start to the week. First we gapped opened lower to 9.5436, only to rally back to 9.5572 right now.

This is only 16 pips away from my forecasted price, or 0.02% in percentage terms. If things don't change much on Monday, I have a real shot at the first place position this month!

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Swedish Krona Mean Reverts Against Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5765, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Support #Resistance #Reversal Pattern #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona #V Shaped Reversal
The Swedish Krona mean-reverted against the Euro yet again. This wont come as a surprise to the readers of my TA posts, because I've written about the range-bound nature of this pair for the past few months. In the process of reversing the pair fell back below the 9.73 handle, a key resistance level that kept a lid on prices.
On our next chart we can see just how important this level has been. It remained unbroken for the past few years, holding the EUR/SEK in a tight range. Things are not looki…
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False Breakout for the Swedish Krona

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.7714, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #EU #Support #Resistance #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Swedish Krona #Reversion
The Euro rallied strongly against the Swedish Krona at the end of October. It even broke above the long-term resistance near 9.7300. But as can be seen on the chart below, all those gains evaporated in a span of few weeks. We are now quoted at 9.7713, only 0.41% away from the 9.7300 breakout point.
The strong rejection of the upside move and the near-complete retracement to the breakout point suggests that the rally in this pair is over. As we can see on the chart below, all previous breakouts, …
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Gains for EUR/SEK WIll Not Last

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.9145, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #EU #Resistance #Breakout #Sweden #Range #EUR/SEK #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK finally managed to break above a two-year resistance line at 9.7256. But I don't think these gains will last and here's why. We're now quoted at 9.9140, only 1.9 percent away from the resistance. This is a fairly small amount.
But more important, this type of breakouts have happened many times in the past few years and it always ended in tears for the bears. Take a look at the chart below. We mark several bullish breakouts and they all ended with prices reverting deep towards the mea…
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fxsurprise8 28 Nov.

So far the general theme of my forecast has been correct. The EUR/SEK is currently quoted at 9.7746, well below the highs reached back in October.

As recent history shows (see the second chart above) breakouts in this pair tend to fail. After hitting a high of 10.0808 on US election day, it has been down ever since for the EUR/SEK.

Few days ago we hit a low of 9.7409 and we're now trading at 9.7746, about 1.4% away from my forecasted price. Let's hope that mean-reversion kicks in again, this time pushing prices higher from oversold territory.

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Overhead Resistance Continues to Keep a Lid on Prices

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6310, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #Resistance #Bullish #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Swedish Krona #Lid
The overhead resistance in the EUR/SEK continues to keep a lid on prices. On the chart below we can see a general area between 9.600 and 9.7200. Notice the many spikes near this area in the past. This signals strong selling pressure.
We are currently quoted at 9.6252, so we're right inside this resistance area. This means that any price gains should be minimal. In September we traded to a high of 9.6654 but the pair again met heavy selling to bring it down to current levels around 9.62-9.63 Euro…
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EUR/SEK Nearing Resistance Cluster

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5511, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Resistance #Sweden #Levels #EUR/SEK #Timeframes #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK is again nearing a resistance cluster. On the chart below we can see all the different times this area has been tested in the past. Once at 9.72 then at 9.68 then at 9.67 then at 9.61 and finally at 9.60. But while the exact level of the bounce varied, in each of those instances the bulls were repelled.
On the lower timeframe we can see a similar range-bound scenaro playing out. All summer we've stayed in this range albeit with some bullish bias. I think this bullish bias will limit …
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fxsurprise8 29 Sep.

Prices have again been repelled at the resistance cluster noted in my original post above. On September 26th the bulls bid up the pair to a high of 9.6654 but here the sellers took charge again.

The slight bullish bias persists but the existence of that resistance area is doing a good job at containing prices.

We are currently quoted at 9.6102, about 0.63% away from my target. I will need this retracement from the highs to continue a little bit longer in order to snag a position near the top.



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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

The EUR/SEK is slowly moving but in the wrong direction. Today we opened at 9.6159 and after a brief spike lower to 9.6038 the pair has rallied higher a bit.

We're now quoted at 9.6339, about 0.87% away from my forecast. The pressure from the resistance area close-by should help to keep a lid on prices. And what doesn't go up, has to come down eventually. At least that's the plan.

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fxsurprise8 3 Oct.

The slow rally in EUR/SEK continues. We opened the week at 9.6293 but quickly rallied from here to a high of 9.6436. We're currently quoted just slightly below the highs at 9.6408.

This price is now close to 1% away from my 9.5511 forecasted price. Prices are now deep inside the 9.61-9.71 resistance area. We can only hope for a sharp rejection here followed by a quick retracement of the gains.

But with only one half session remaining tomorrow, odds look bleak for a high prize placement this month.

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EUR/SEK Nears Top of the Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5581, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Low Volatility #EUR/SEK #Range Top #Single Currency #Swedish Krona
The Swedish Krona has been trading range-bound versus the Euro since the start of 2015. In December 2014 we peaked at 9.7268 and we haven't surpassed this high ever since. This doesn't mean that the bulls haven't tried. On the weekly chart below we show 5 subsequent attempts to break above this previous high, with no success.
With prices now nearing the levels where previous rallies have failed, it's natural to ask has the current move higher been overdone? I think yes. Notice how the Stochastic…
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fxsurprise8 31 Aug.

The bulls have again been repelled (see pic 1 above) this time peaking at 9.5991. In the retracement that followed, a low of 9.4260 was hit.

The Stochastic (see pic 2 above) predicted this rejection nicely. But I don't put too much weight on indicators and I think the bigger reason for the resistance cluster we have above 9.6000.

This should continue to act as a lid on prices. We're now trading at 9.5072, about half a percent away from forecast.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

The EUR/SEK had a large rally during the past 24 hours. We moved from 5.5072 to a high of 5.5855. This is a rally of 1.4 percent in a pair that doesn't move that much.

Unfortunately for me, this means that the pair went from undershooting my target to overshooting it by quite a bit.

But it's not over yet! As I mentioned in my other comments I expect the resistance cluster from 9.60 to 9.78 to do its job and repel prices once again. Hopefully this will lead to the EUR/SEK landing nicely at my forecasted price and not undershoot it :)

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Time for another update! Prices did overshoot my target somewhat. As expected, as we got near the highs the pair was pummeled back into the ground.

We fell to a low of 9.5420 around mid-day but in the next few hours the EUR/SEK rose a bit, bringing it very close to my target.

At 12:00 GMT we closed at 9.5531, only 50 pips or 0.05% away from my forecasted price. Overall I think this was a solid analysis on my part. I identified the general market sentiment and made a correct bet that the resistance levels would keep prices down.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Here's an updated chart of what happened in August. Prices tried to make a run and break the highs but they were again repelled.

Note that now we have six rectangles on the chart, not five like in my original post. The last rectangle shows the latest price rejection this month.

The cluster of resistance levels from around 9.60 to 9.72 has again successfully stopped another rally in the EUR/SEK.

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