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Отсортировано по тагам:  Reversal Pattern
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Indicator. Points of trend reversal

Started developing an indicator that will help determine pivot points and zones for optimal entry into a position...
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Swedish Krona Settles Back in Range

The Swedish Krona is settling back into its long-term range against the Euro. The pair ventured above the highs of this range at 9.7291 during the chaos after Trump's election victory. But since then we've seen that move slowly retraced back down.
We are currently quoted substantially below the 9.7291 resistance level. And as we can see on our next chart below, the situation doesn't look better on the lower time-frames either. Here too we're seeing range-bound price movement.
The pair opened the…
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fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 29 Март

UPDATE 3: The pair continues to follow mean reversion, albeit in a bit larger range. Today a low of 9.5412 was hit, soon followed by a high of 9.5734.

Few hours later the momentum shifted again, this time to the downside. The EUR/SEK eventually closed the day at 9.5450, barely changed from the 9.5490 open.

We are currently quoted at 9.5454, only 0.14 percent away from my targeted price. Everything continues to go according to my plan here.

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 30 Март

UPDATE 4: It's starting to look like Groundhog Day here as we got another day with high volatility but little decisive movement in the EUR/SEK.

First the bulls pushed prices all the way up to 9.5679, just below yesterday's high at 9.5734. This was quickly followed by heavy selling again that took us to a low of 0.95435.

We are currently quoted at 9.5451, almost no change compared to the price noted in my previous update (9.5454). Clearly mean-reversion is still at play here.

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 31 Март

UPDATE 5: This pair continues to perform mostly as expected. It's now trading at 9.5558, drifting even closer to my forecasted price at 9.5588.

Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

From here however we got yet another mean-reverting move that brought us back toward the 9.5500 area, where we are trading right now. Clearly my original call for range-bound market in March has been right so far!

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 1 Апр.

UPDATE 6: This for another update, this time with a chart. Let's put in a picture what we've been saying in words.

The picture shows the EUR/SEK price action during March. Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

We closed on Friday at 9.5526, barely changed compared to the monthly open. With only half day of trading left on Monday in this contest, odds look good for a top position!

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2 Апр.

UPDATE 7: The Euro is having a small revival with the start of the week across the board. While most EUR pairs closed near the lows on Friday, in the early hours on Sunday we're seeing them slowly creep back up!

The Swedish Krona had an interesting start to the week. First we gapped opened lower to 9.5436, only to rally back to 9.5572 right now.

This is only 16 pips away from my forecasted price, or 0.02% in percentage terms. If things don't change much on Monday, I have a real shot at the first place position this month!

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Expecting Euro comeback

Analytic Method: Candle patterns
Weekly/Monthly Analysis
For four months in a row, the euro has lost to the canadian dollar. This was largely due to the shift in oil prices, as commodity prices picked up. Now, those same prices have resumed the downturn from last year.
The week's charts tell the story. There is support level forming.
Candles with long wicks, that are Doji-like, and market pressure unable to push the exchange rate lower. This is good place for reversal.
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fr33m4n avatar
fr33m4n 1 Апр.

The euro comeback that was expected has come and is almost gone. The exchange rate for this market got as high as 1.4600, before the big tumble we are seeing recently.
There is still plenty room for the exchange rate to go down, this will happen if we enter the new week with a bearish euro.

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Swedish Krona Mean Reverts Against Euro

The Swedish Krona mean-reverted against the Euro yet again. This wont come as a surprise to the readers of my TA posts, because I've written about the range-bound nature of this pair for the past few months. In the process of reversing the pair fell back below the 9.73 handle, a key resistance level that kept a lid on prices.
On our next chart we can see just how important this level has been. It remained unbroken for the past few years, holding the EUR/SEK in a tight range. Things are not looki…
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EURo at the long term trendline once again

The euro once again sits just above the long-term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. Speculation is that, with Trump and the Republicans at the helm, the U.S. will enter a reflation period that will bring about jobs, growth, inflation and higher interest rates.
The pair posted a huge reversal pattern on the election day but in the current range-bound environment its significance is diluted. Still, both technicals and fundamentals point lower and the next stronger support is seen near 76…
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AUD/NZD to Reverse at Support

The AUD/NZD is nearing important support, this year's low for the pair at 1.0309. We're now quoted at 1.0379 after trading as low as 1.0349 just few hours earlier.
The second reason why I'm betting on a reversal rally here is ho oversold the AUD/NZD is right now. Note the Stochastic on the 4 Hour chart is below 20, signalling oversold territory. My target is 1.0741, right below this summer's highs in this pair. I think a 400 pips rally is about the max the AUD/NZD can do in one month.
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rashadali avatar
rashadali 9 Сент.

good job )

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Yen Looks Overbought

The Yen looks overbought. Normally a safe-haven currency, the Japanese Yen got bought up aggressively in the post-Brexit mayhem. But as we can see on the 4 Hour chart below, things are starting to change with prices possibly bottoming out. We have now retraced over 50% of the Brexit related move, with possibly more gains on the way.
There are signs of a bottom on longer-term charts as well. Notice below how the Stochastic has clearly hit oversold territory in the USD/JPY. The Stoch moved below 2…
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USD/CAD to Rally Higher

The Canadian Dollar has been one of the big winners from the rally in oil prices this year. The USD/CAD saw most of the post-Fed December gains evaporate and is currently trading at 1.2986, over 1600 pips below the January highs at 1.4688.
Notice the Stochastic indicator on the daily chart below. It has been in oversold territory for over one month now since late February. But things may be changing, notice how the indy is finally turning back higher above the 20 level, signalling a potential r…
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SvetLena avatar
SvetLena 31 Март

good

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Long term bias is still long on AUD/USD

Daily analysis

My long term bias is still long on this pair.
The structure seems to be finished now, we have a nice corrective channel at the 0.61 fib retracement.
From the EW perspective i think this is a series of 1-2s.
A potential target is at the minor rising channel shown on chart currently around 0.6975.
0.7295 should remain intact for this scenario to remain favored for me.
weekly analysis

After completing a retest towards the potential reversal zone I outlined in my previous analysis…
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Clear Image of Bearish trend on GBP/USD

Daily analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5433 and touched a high of 1.5507. The pair then reversed directions, dropping to a low of 1.5302, as support held firm at 1.5269. The pair closed the week at 1.5309.
Technical lines from top to bottom 1.5825 was an important cap in November 2014. 1.5769 is the next resistance line. 1.5682 was a key resistance line in December 2014 and January 2015. 1.5590 is the next line of resistance. 1.5485 was a cap in the first half of September. 1.5341 continue…
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