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Buying the Yen!

fxsurprise8 Posted 23 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
I'm buying the Yen! Most Yen pairs look weak so I started shorting them. First I did a USD/JPY and EUR/JPY shorts and now I added a GBP/JPY pending order to short.
My two open trades are up 79 pips for the USD/JPY sell and down 21 pips for the EUR/JPY sell. So far the moves have been anti-USD not so much pro-JPY.
Hoping to see this change in the coming days because XXX/JPY pairs seem ready to fall. My equity is at 123,000 right now, so a long way to go until a prize position this month.
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No major change in speculator positioning

fxsurprise8 Posted 22 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
According to the latest COT report (as of Nov 14th) there's no major changes in speculator positioning this week. This can be seen in the prices too as volatility has decreased markedly over the past few weeks.
Euro longs are down from 85,000 to 84,000. Cable shorts decreased from 9,000 to 4,000. Aussie longs are down slightly from +45,000 to +44,000.
In other currencies there are no large changes either. Japanese Yen shorts are up from 127,000 to 135,000 while Swiss Franc shorts increased from …
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USD Longs Slowly Increase

fxsurprise8 Posted 4 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
Speculators continue to add to their USD bet on futures. The latest COT report shows that the small but consistent move back to the Dollar continues.
Euro longs dropped from +84,000 to 72,000 this week. Yen shorts increase by 3,000 to -119,000. Aussie longs dropped from +57,000 last week to +52,000.
Canadian Dollar longs got sharply reduced to 58,000 from 72,000. In other currencies we don't see much change. Cable is still at +1,000 and NZD shorts moved from -1,000 to -6,000.
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COT: Yen Shorts Increased

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
According to the latest COT report, speculative yen shorts have increased from 101,000last week to 116,000 this week. Swiss Franc shorts also increased, from 5k to 11k.
In the major currencies we don't see much change. Euro longs are down from 90k to 84k, Cable longs are down from 5k to 1k and CAD longs are down from 75k to 72k.
A more substantial decline bearish USD sentiment can be seen in the Aussie and Kiwi. Here longs dropped from 62k to 57k and from +7k to +1k. The paring of USD shorts is …
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Dollar Getting Some Help From Speculators

fxsurprise8 Posted 21 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
The latest COT report is out and it appears that speculators have partially closed their aggressive bets against the US Dollar. Versus the Pound, longs are down to +5k from +15k.
Euro longs are also down from +98k to +90k, as are AUD longs, from +69k to +62k. The only major currency that saw a (small) gain vs the USD was the NZD, from 6k to +7k.
Yen specs have remained at the -101k mark and CAD longs have only decreased slightly from 76k to 75k. This COT report basically shows what happened to t…
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Back in the Contest!

fxsurprise8 Posted 20 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
After a near two-month long break in the trading contests, I'm back! With only 10 trading days left, it will be tough to win but I'll try to get a winning prize position.
My main plan is to bet on more USD weakness going forward. It appears that the EUR/USD is back on the move up after a small dip to the 1.17xx.
Other candidaties for my longs are the GBP/USD. I think Cable is still under-priced post-Brexit. I may also long the AUD/USD or the NZD/USD, both pairs have been going up nicely lately.
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Betting on the Yen

fxsurprise8 Posted 6 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
I decided to bet more on the Yen during September. I think the market is underestimating the odds for a Korean showdown. It's used to NK causing a scare, which is then bought up.
But with tensions escalating I think more Yen strength could be on the way. I'm looking to sell the USD/JPY primarily and maybe 1-2 other pairs that look dumpy.
I will probably stay out of the EUR/JPY because (due to low rates) the EUR got a reputation for rallying in risk-off markets lately. It may not fall enough vers…
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COT Report Indicates Little Change

fxsurprise8 Posted 2 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
It's a new trading month and time for another COT report update! Remember that this data is valid as of Wednesday September 30th, so it's not real time speculator positioning.
In the past week there have been little changes in specs positions. The net EUR longs are now at +87,000 vs +88,000. Pound shorts are at -52k vs -46k.
Aussie longs are up by 7k to +67,000 while NZD longs are at +19,000 vs +22,000. Yen shorts are down slightly to -69k from -74k. Overall no major changes.
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Closed three trades in profit

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
A bit delayed update due to my preoccupation with other things. I closed 3 trades at a profit. My EUR/USD long got closed at +23 pips worth of profit.
My EUR/JPY had a trailing stop which finally got hit for +66 pips and my USD/JPY hit a big take profit order at 109.89 for a total gain of 130 pips.
Overall a gain of 90% or 90k on my trading capital. The basic premise of the trade was to fade the over-extended moves in the three pairs mentioned above.
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Adding a few trades

fxsurprise8 Posted 29 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
I added a few trades today. After the launch of the NK missile over Japan we got the usual panic Yen buying. This is often retraced so I entered two trades.
One long USD/JPY and one long EUR/JPY. Results are so far mixed as it seems the trades are moving mostly due to EUR strength and USD weakness.
I'll give them some more room and see what happens. I also entered a short EUR/USD trade as it seems to be getting a bit over-extended here. All trades are shorter-term.
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