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Buying the Yen!

fxsurprise8 Posted 23 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
I'm buying the Yen! Most Yen pairs look weak so I started shorting them. First I did a USD/JPY and EUR/JPY shorts and now I added a GBP/JPY pending order to short.
My two open trades are up 79 pips for the USD/JPY sell and down 21 pips for the EUR/JPY sell. So far the moves have been anti-USD not so much pro-JPY.
Hoping to see this change in the coming days because XXX/JPY pairs seem ready to fall. My equity is at 123,000 right now, so a long way to go until a prize position this month.
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No major change in speculator positioning

fxsurprise8 Posted 22 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
According to the latest COT report (as of Nov 14th) there's no major changes in speculator positioning this week. This can be seen in the prices too as volatility has decreased markedly over the past few weeks.
Euro longs are down from 85,000 to 84,000. Cable shorts decreased from 9,000 to 4,000. Aussie longs are down slightly from +45,000 to +44,000.
In other currencies there are no large changes either. Japanese Yen shorts are up from 127,000 to 135,000 while Swiss Franc shorts increased from …
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USD Longs Slowly Increase

fxsurprise8 Posted 4 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
Speculators continue to add to their USD bet on futures. The latest COT report shows that the small but consistent move back to the Dollar continues.
Euro longs dropped from +84,000 to 72,000 this week. Yen shorts increase by 3,000 to -119,000. Aussie longs dropped from +57,000 last week to +52,000.
Canadian Dollar longs got sharply reduced to 58,000 from 72,000. In other currencies we don't see much change. Cable is still at +1,000 and NZD shorts moved from -1,000 to -6,000.
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COT: Yen Shorts Increased

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
According to the latest COT report, speculative yen shorts have increased from 101,000last week to 116,000 this week. Swiss Franc shorts also increased, from 5k to 11k.
In the major currencies we don't see much change. Euro longs are down from 90k to 84k, Cable longs are down from 5k to 1k and CAD longs are down from 75k to 72k.
A more substantial decline bearish USD sentiment can be seen in the Aussie and Kiwi. Here longs dropped from 62k to 57k and from +7k to +1k. The paring of USD shorts is …
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Dollar Getting Some Help From Speculators

fxsurprise8 Posted 21 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
The latest COT report is out and it appears that speculators have partially closed their aggressive bets against the US Dollar. Versus the Pound, longs are down to +5k from +15k.
Euro longs are also down from +98k to +90k, as are AUD longs, from +69k to +62k. The only major currency that saw a (small) gain vs the USD was the NZD, from 6k to +7k.
Yen specs have remained at the -101k mark and CAD longs have only decreased slightly from 76k to 75k. This COT report basically shows what happened to t…
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Back in the Contest!

fxsurprise8 Posted 20 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Trader's Contest
After a near two-month long break in the trading contests, I'm back! With only 10 trading days left, it will be tough to win but I'll try to get a winning prize position.
My main plan is to bet on more USD weakness going forward. It appears that the EUR/USD is back on the move up after a small dip to the 1.17xx.
Other candidaties for my longs are the GBP/USD. I think Cable is still under-priced post-Brexit. I may also long the AUD/USD or the NZD/USD, both pairs have been going up nicely lately.
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Fxsurprise8 has taken 83rd place in Dukat Contest Jul - Sep 2017

fxsurprise8 Posted 3 Oct.
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EUR/TRY Stalling Around Key Area After Large Gains

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.2111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Resistance #Rally #European Union #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY is stalling around a key resistance area. We're currently quoted at 4.2068, with the previous swing high back in January at 4.1764. This means that the pair hasn't made more then 1% gain all year.
If this wasn't weak enough, on the lower timeframe chart below we're seeing a ranging market. Because of both these charts I'm betting on the EUR/TRY staying range-bound in October.
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EUR/SEK Stays in Range All of 2017

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6228, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Trading #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK is having another ranging year. The pair opened 2017 around the 9.57 handle is now quoted at 9.61, a percentage change of less then half of 1%.
But going back in time doesn't change the picture (see below). Here too we're seeing this currency pair locked in a range most of the time too. In fact except for a brief excursion above the 10 round figure during the US election last year, the EUR/SEK stayed remarkably flat.
The larger range spanned from 9.11 to 9.80, or around 7 percent. Th…
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More of the Same in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Support #Resistance #European Union #Poland #Range #EUR/PLN #Multi Year
The five-and-half years range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3057. This is around 2.6 percent, a very negligible amount for several years of trading.
Dropping down to the 4 Hour chart shows a similar situation. First we fell to a low of 4.15 only to get back all losses in the next few weeks and months. We're now trading at similar prices as back in March, around 4.30.…
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