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Loonie awaits the U.S. election

al_dcdemo Updated 8 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Narrow Range #Weak Fundamentals #D1 Chart #U S Election
Loonie has been relatively unaffected by the recent developments around the U.S. election, spending the past two weeks in a narrow, one cent, range between 1.335 and 1.345. Any post-election dip may be worth buying due to still weak fundamentals.
1.33 is the initial support with more near 50 DMA (1.32) and then the pending intersection of 100 and 200 DMA (1.31). On the upside, 1.3450 - 1.35 is followed by 1.3575 - 1.36 and then 1.37.
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USD/CAD pullback to continue

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2925, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Reversal #Confluence #Uptrend #200 Day Sma #Strong Demand #Weak Fundamentals #Second Wave
Monthly chart
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair pulled back deep enough to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed the uptrend.
Weekly chart
During the pullback in late April and early May, lower tails o…
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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 4: Canadian dollar was among those major currencies that lost against the U.S. dollar in the past week. It lost half a cent while the weekly range was about a cent and a quarter wide. Needless to say, price action in the pair was mostly range bound. Volatility in the pair is contracting what may also be a sign that we are nearing usually less active December.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 5: There's nothing particularly of note on the calendar for the week ahead from Canada. U.S., however, will report several market moving data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technically, the pair seems to be slowing while moving up towards cycle-high set in September. Although that may warn of a near term correction, quick fake break above the high is not excluded.

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al_dcdemo 26 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Loonie surged through 1.34 on Monday and traded up to 1.3435. High for the year, set in late September at 1.3457, held. The oil rebounded on Friday and has not posted a losing day since. If the commodity stays supported, the pair is unlikely to break to new highs. In that case, a retest of 50 and 100 DMA (1.3150 - 1.3200) seems the most likely scenario. Otherwise, 1.34 level will need to be convincingly broken to make a push through the cycle-high feasible.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Canadian dollar lost about a quarter of a cent against the U.S. dollar and closed in the middle of the range. The pair's range was somewhat larger this week than in the previous one but overall price action was pretty much the same. Needless to say, the pair tracked oil prices which rose in the first three days of the week only to then give back most of the gains in the last two days.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Week ahead is big for Canadian currency too. GDP release will be followed by BOC meeting and labour market report. On top of that, U.S. will publish ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Attempt to break to new eleven-year highs early in the past week failed and the pair pulled back but based ahead of 1.3275. Higher lows during the best part of the month highlight the bullish bias.

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USD/CAD to climb some more

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3425, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Breakout #Uptrend #Rate Cut #Strong Demand #Eleven Year Highs #Weak Fundamentals #Second Wave
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair pulled back deep enough to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed its uptrend. It is currently trading at eleven-year highs.
Weekly chart:
After Q1 range…
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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 1: Apart from GDP, there's little coming out from Canada in the week ahead. Events from the US will again be in focus: Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. There's resistance zone between July 2004 high (1.3385) and 1.35 which includes 61.8% retracement of the 2002 to 2007 decline (1.3470). 50 DMA has held the pair since June and is the first stronger level on the downside.

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al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 2: Uptrend in Loonie is slow but persistent. The pair has posted (yet another) new eleven-year high today, breaking above last Thursday's high by 15 pips before pulling back. The drivers remain weak commodities and general risk-off sentiment. Hawkish comments from Fed speakers yesterday didn't help it either. First stronger intraday support is seen at 1.3385 - 1.3400 and then between 1.3335 and 1.3365. There's quite a few resistance levels stacked up ahead of the big 61.8% retracement.

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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 3: This is shaping to be the best week for the Canadian dollar since June. After posting new eleven-year high on Tuesday, the pair turned sharply lower on Wednesday. Follow through selling on Thursday was cemented on Friday, after the release of US NFP report for September which was a big disappointment. The pair's shorter-term correlation with oil faded a bit but it's the longer-term one that really counts.

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al_dcdemo 9 Oct.

UPDATE 4: Commodities rallied this week with the oil (WTI) gaining about $4, which is even more significant (8%) in percentage terms. Loonie has convincingly broken below three big support levels: 50 DMA (currently ~1.32), 2008 high (1.3064) and 1.30 big figure level. 100 DMA is the next one ahead of Q1 highs between 1.2800 and 1.2835. Momentum is strong and may easily carry it another couple of cents lower.

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USD/CAD to continue motoring higher

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3325, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Breakout #Uptrend #Rate Cut #Strong Demand #61 8 Retracement #Eleven Year Highs #Weak Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
The pair is in uptrend since 2011. It broke above 38.2% retracement (of the 2002 to 2007 decline) in January and then traded around 50.0% retracement for nearly three months. In April, the pair broke back down and continued lower to clear stops below 1.20. The confluence of the broken trendline (drawn off 2003, 2004 and 2009 highs) and 38.2% retracement wasn't even properly retested before the pair resumed the uptrend. It is currently trading at eleven-year highs.
Weekly chart:
A…
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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Apart from GDP, there's little coming out from Canada in the week ahead. Events from the US will again be in focus: Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. There's resistance zone between July 2004 high (1.3385) and 1.35 which includes 61.8% retracement of the 2002 to 2007 decline (1.3470). 50 DMA has held the pair since June and is the first stronger level on the downside.

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al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 9: Uptrend in Loonie is slow but persistent. The pair has posted (yet another) new eleven-year high today, breaking above last Thursday's high by 15 pips before pulling back. The drivers remain weak commodities and general risk-off sentiment. Hawkish comments from Fed speakers yesterday didn't help it either. First stronger intraday support is seen at 1.3385 - 1.3400 and then between 1.3335 and 1.3365. There's quite a few resistance levels stacked up ahead of the big 61.8% retracement.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 30 Sep.

Great analysis and an accurate forecast!

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

gl! only 15 pips away right now

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

Thanks! Let's hope it trades back above the big figure. :)

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