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USD/CHF rises above parity level

al_dcdemo Posted 13 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Politics #D1 Chart #U S Election
USD/CHF retraced more than half of the 800-pip rally that it had recorded after the U.S. election. A lot will depend on politics, in both U.S. and Europe, this year but as long as SNB keeps interest rates low, the pair will remain supported.
500-pip pullback bottomed just below the top of last year's channel, near 200 DMA. The pair is now back above parity level with 50 DMA the next target. Stronger demand may start coming in between 0.995 and 1.00.
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Gonchar avatar
Gonchar 10 Mar.

много пишешь

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Kiwi to head lower in January

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6825, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Neutral Rbnz #U S Election
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has been mostly contained in a rising channel. Just as 50 day SMA crossed above 100 day SMA, the pair broke below t…
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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 5: The U.S. dollar generally moved lower against the major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. His first actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Sentiment from the last week continues as U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what the majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 7: It was a lacklustre week for the dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound crossed 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely monitored.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 8: U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Cable rose about 60 pips but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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al_dcdemo 1 Feb.

UPDATE 9: New Zealand quarterly Employment Change came in as expected, at 0.8%. Unemployment Rate rose to 5.2% on the back of higher Participation Rate (70.5%). Labour Cost Index slightly disappointed at 0.4%. Kiwi added nearly five cents from the low of 0.6860 in late December and pulled back nearly a full cent after the release of otherwise solid labour market data. Profit-taking after yesterday's surge to 0.7350 and ahead of the FOMC might have been a bigger factor.

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EURo may approach parity in January

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0225, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals #U S Election
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. In the process, the pair traded below 1.05 - 1.15 range …
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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 30 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed officials. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar generally moved lower against the major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. His first actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what the majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the U.S. dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound took 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely watched.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Cable rose about 60 pips but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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Aussie tests 38.2% retracement

al_dcdemo Updated 30 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #High Yield #D1 Chart #U S Election #Copper Prices
Australian dollar recouped more than two thirds of post U.S. election decline and is among better performers against the U.S dollar of late. Relatively high yield and rising copper prices are two factors that have been supporting the currency.
The correction stalled ahead of 0.75 which coincides with 38.2% retracement of the mentioned decline. The resistance zone is reinforced by 200 DMA, running just above the big figure. 0.7425 is the initial support.
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Swissie pauses ahead of 1.02

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Big Moves #D1 Chart #U S Election
USD/CHF rallied about 650 pips (6.8%) since the U.S. election low on November 9th. That's hardly a half of what USD/JPY showed (1270 pips, 12.6%) but is still a lot for just under three weeks. The moves do not appear to be over yet.
2015 (1.0325) and 2016 (1.0250) highs are not very far away with the next major target being the 2008 - 2016 support/resistance line, which is currently running near 1.0450. Pullbacks have been shallow but a deeper one may not extend much below the parity level.
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EURo to stay below the long term trendline

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0475 , Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Bearish Fundamentals #U S Election
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair has been consolidating in the 1.05 - 1.15 range since Q1 2015. It broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows in t…
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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holidays. U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The U.S. dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 10: The sharp spike lower on Friday was completely retraced by the time European session got underway. Euro ended the last trading day of 2016 slightly higher but headed down on the first day of the new year. It's a holiday in many countries today still but we will not have to wait for too long to see how the first real moves for the year will look like as liquidity returns to the market. The pair looks poised to end the contest period a couple of pips from my target of 1.0475. Excluding the aforementioned spike, the pair conformed well to the expected price path.

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fx_lmcap 2 Jan.

Great forecast!

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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

Thanks a lot! :)

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Kiwi breaks below 200 DMA

al_dcdemo Updated 21 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #NZD/USD #Rate Cut #D1 Chart #Rbnz Meeting #U S Election
New Zealand dollar was the least volatile currency during the U.S. election day. Part of it was likely due to the fact that the RBNZ held a meeting on the next day. Widely expected rate cut didn't exactly matter as the currency joined others in a sell-off.
The pair has so far lost about 400 pips and closed lower in eight consecutive days. It closed last week below the 2015 - 2016 trendline and 200 DMA, which may now act as a resistance. Area between 0.6880 and 0.70 (00's, 38.2% retracement, 50 W…
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Swissie approaching parity level again

al_dcdemo Posted 14 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Risk Sentiment #D1 Chart #Parity Level #U S Election
Swisse has been another currency pair that has benefited from the positive risk sentiment after the U.S. election. The low on that day extended to 0.9550 from which the pair rallied about three cents, closing a cent higher on the week.
Trendline drawn off of November 2015 and January 2016 highs comes in near parity level this week and is the important confluence to watch. If momentum carries on the pair could just slice through. In the event of a deeper pullback, 0.975 - 0.98 is the support zone…
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The dollar rallies after Trump wins the U.S. election

al_dcdemo Updated 9 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Donald Trump #D1 Chart #Risk Assets #U S Election #The Fed Trade
Risk assets and the dollar sold off initially when it had became clearer and clearer that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Traders were quick to buy the dip and the rally took off as the news was widely confirmed.
I expected at least one more day of selling but the price action seems logical. Markets are inherently optimistic while Trump presidency really isn't such big a deal. What we saw was the Fed trade returning with force, in my view.
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Loonie awaits the U.S. election

al_dcdemo Updated 8 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Narrow Range #Weak Fundamentals #D1 Chart #U S Election
Loonie has been relatively unaffected by the recent developments around the U.S. election, spending the past two weeks in a narrow, one cent, range between 1.335 and 1.345. Any post-election dip may be worth buying due to still weak fundamentals.
1.33 is the initial support with more near 50 DMA (1.32) and then the pending intersection of 100 and 200 DMA (1.31). On the upside, 1.3450 - 1.35 is followed by 1.3575 - 1.36 and then 1.37.
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