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USDTRY

it' s hard make a precise foresee for the USDTRY. In fact this pair went up by 80 % in the last 8 months and the ATR oscillator ( that measure the volatility) have just reach its maximum .
Despite it the pair could recorded a correction in the coming period , in fact it is already down by 15% from it last peak and if will continue on this pace could to be reach the resistance placed to 4,75 for Oct .
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The lira collapse

The lira collapse caused a turmoil on all high yield currencies and in the stock market while , greenback , Swiss franc and Japanese Yen went good ( very good) . In the next week shouldn't to be an inversion of this trend ( also if a slowdown is natural ) because the political reasons of this plunge remaining on the ground .
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USDTRY

The bearish divergence present on the USD TRY is evident on the RSI oscillator , this explosive situation could cause an huge correction in the coming weeks
In mine prediction the pair could go down to 23.6% level ( Fibonacci) before find some support . It mean a fall by 10% from the current level .
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USDTRY

The USDTRY appear unable to breach the static support placed to 4.7 while the CCI and Stochastic oscillator show an overbought situation
In my opinion we could to see a correction soon . In this case the first strong support could to be the 161,8% level provided by the Fibonacci Circles
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The greenback appear...

The greenback appear weak today , despite the positive figure coming by the Jobless claims ( 222 K) that beaten the market consensus in the first week of June . It appear that the Dollar have already paid the future interest rate increase ( maybe).In this case it would useful take a look at the high yield currencies vs dollar . I mean pair such NZDUSD and , why not , USDTRY .These pair shouldn 't suffer also in case of correction by Wall Street , i think
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In this moment ...

In this moment the Canadian dollar is suffering cause by oil price and, considering the fundamental reasons on the backdrop of the oil plunge , place some orders vs the Cad shouldn't so stupid ( CADJPY or EURCAD in particular) . However in my view the main event this week on the currencies market will be the interest rate decision by TCMB ( Turkish central bank) that could cause a turmoil on the TRY .
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In the next 6 months

In the next 6 months of 2018 it will be hard to see a further increase in the stock market , that appear tired ,or a rally on high yield currencies such AUD or NZD that have an high correlation with the stock market . A nice bet could to be the Turkish lira (EURTRY; USDTRY or TRYJPY) specially in the view of carry trade , because at the moment these pair appear to be market neutral .
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USDtry

On the stars and beyond with the USDTRY that in its crazy run increased by 210% since 2010 , making jump many indicators in red zone as the RSI or CCI ( on weekly base on this chart)
The resistance provided by the Fibonacci could cause a correction in the next period , in this case i foresee a plunge around 10% for July
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In the last part...

In the last part of the week there is a correction , that remained flat in the complex , instead the Eur closed another week in bearish mood , also if there was a bounce yesterday . A real big disappointment come by the Try ( Turkish lira) that seemed ready for a recovery and instead give up all its gain in the final part of the week . In my view the greenback will be weak in the week ahead
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USDTRY - pohľad na graf


Pár USDTRY je v silnom rastovom trende no koncom minulého týždňa som na ňom otvoril short a sviečka v piatok ma presvedčila, že je celkom možný menší pokles páru na nižšie úrovne a skorigovanie posledného silného rastu. Posledné výhľady mi celkom vyšli, avšak nedokázal som pozíciu nejako dlho podržať a nakoniec som nej zarobil len zlomok jej potenciálu.
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