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Aussie rallies on upbeat RBA rate statement

al_dcdemo Updated 7 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rba #Stop Run #Rate Statement #D1 Chart
The RBA left cash rate at the record low of 1.50%. However, the accompanying statement looks upbeat and the bank doesn't seem concerned with the appreciating exchange rate any more than before. They even explicitly mention that "the depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy".
After the usual stop run on the downside, the Australian dollar shot up about 40 pips. 0.76 - 0.765 should hold, if this market is indeed bullish. 0.77 is the initial target and then the hig…
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Cable breaks 1.30

al_dcdemo Posted 5 July  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Stop Run #Daily Range #D1 Chart #Landslide Decline #Brexit Day Low
In a landslide decline that started in early Asian session and continued throughout European and N.A. sessions, Cable lost about 260 pips with the daily range of close to 290 pips.
The decline accelerated after the Brexit day low (~1.3225) gave way and stalled after briefly trading south of 1.30, the lowest since 1984. A proper stop run below the big level could send the pair another 100 pips lower and put 1.25 into focus.
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Fed stands pat

al_dcdemo Updated 28 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting #Stop Run #Advance Gdp #D1 Chart #Non Event
Yesterday's FOMC decision proved to be a non-event. The committee made a couple of adjustments to the statement but the message remained basically the same and there was no hint of a timing of the next rate hike.
The market did what it usually does after high impact releases that change nothing - it ran stops on both sides before returning to pre-release range. Tomorrow's U.S. Q1 Advance GDP will likely provide a better signal as to the direction.
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JuliannaS 28 Apr.

informative)

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al_dcdemo 29 Apr.

I'm glad you like it. :)

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Kiwi well supported in the dips

al_dcdemo Posted 15 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Strength #Stop Run #D1 Chart #China Data #Continuation Higher
Better than expected data from China overnight has in part been the driver of Kiwi strength today as it reversed all yesterday's losses and some before pulling back in the last couple of hours.
My thinking was that the pair would reverse lower after running stops above 0.69 but it remains well supported in the dips and continuation higher seems more likely at this point.
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Aussie finds some sellers

al_dcdemo Posted 16 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rally #Stop Run #D1 Chart
Aussie rallied almost 800 pips from the seven-year low, set in January near 0.6825. Last swing was particularly strong and after a proper stop-run above 0.75 level, the pair is finally finding some sellers.
It is possible that the pair will see some backing and filling in the days ahead. There's plenty of support levels for the bulls to lean against with 0.72 - 0.725 a potential bull/bear line in sand.
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anna_n 17 Mar.

all clearly written) like me)

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al_dcdemo 17 Mar.

If you click on it, there are actually two paragraphs :)

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GBP/USD to continue to grind lower

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5125, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally that followed ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 20 month SMA, 50 month SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up ahead of 100 and 200 month SMA.
Weekly chart
Strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. Th…
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al_dcdemo 2 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Cable touched below 1.50 on Monday but bounced more than 130 pips from there before it turned back down. Weak Manufacturing and Construction PMI releases didn't help the pair which has been sold on most crosses. Today, 1.50 was properly busted and the low of the day was put in few pips below 1.49. The bounce ran out of steam just above 1.4950. Broken 1.50 level shall now act as a resistance, should the pair get there anytime soon. Some support is seen at April 21th low near 1.4850.

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al_dcdemo 9 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Cable staged an impressive rally on ECB day last week when it rallied more than 250 pips. It spent the last three days paring those gains. After a stop run below 1.50, the decline stopped and reversed in 1.4940 - 1.4960 support zone (Daily Wedge Bottom, 50's, Weeky Support 1). The pair is currently back above 1.50 level with more supply likely waiting near 1.5040 - 1.5060 (50's, Weekly Pivot Point, Daily Resistance 1, Previous Day High). 1.50 level appears to be a bull/bear line in sand at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Yesterday was a relatively volatile Monday for the Cable with the daily range of 120 pips. Today is shaping up to be of a sideways type but we'll see where the current USD buying will stall. 1.5130 - 1.5140 (Weekly Pivot Point, Low Of Day) is the immediate support ahead of 1.5080 - 1.5110 (Previous Day Low, 00's, Daily Support 1). Strong resistance 1.5180 - 1.5210 (Monthly Pivot Point, 00's, Daily Resistance 1) is followed by 1.5230 - 1.5250 (Previous Day High, 50 DMA, Previous Week High, 50's).

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al_dcdemo 28 Dec.

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier U.K. data, released on Wednesday and Thursday, most likely won't produce any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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GBP/USD to stay well supported

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5375, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA, 20 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up ahead of 100 and 200 day SMA.
Weekly chart
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair travele…
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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 4: FOMC meeting Minutes were published yesterday evening. There was nothing new in them but the market did seem to expect a bit more hawkishness. An absence of a clear signal that rates will go up in December was perhaps the main driver behind the broad dollar selling that followed the publication. Cable rose to as high as 1.5295 in the hours after the release. 1.5300 - 1.5340 band, which includes 50 and 200 DMA, is the first stronger resistance before the confluence of 100 DMA and the descending trendline drawn off of August and November highs. Initial support is seen near 1.5250.

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 5: Sterling lost some 40 pips against the dollar last week. Weekly range was worth a little less than two cents. Price action from Monday to Wednesday was mostly of a sideways type. On Thursday, the pair broke above the recent range (1.515 - 1.525) and rose a good cent before it was capped by 200 DMA. It reversed those gains on Friday as it returned back to the range.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 6: U.K. will report its second estimate of GDP along with few other lower tier indicators. U.S. will publish several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. The pair is carving out a declining wedge pattern on a daily chart. Pattern support currently runs just below 1.50 while its resistance comes in near 1.54.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Pip-wise, the pair was the loser of the week among seven major currency pairs. It lost a little less than 150 pips while its range was a bit more than that. The pair fell from the opening levels and, after making three consecutive higher lows on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, it looked as though consolidation will extend into Friday. It didn't and the pair closed at the lowest level since April.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: There will be plenty of data from the U.K. in the week ahead but the PMIs, Bank Stress Test Results and BOE Carney's speech will be in focus. U.S. macroeconomic data released next week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Technically, the pair is flirting with the big 1.50 level. If it gives way, a stop run may extend to 1.4950 before any meaningful pullback.

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GBP/USD to stay around current levels

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Sep. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5275, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as the trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.
Weekly chart:
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair tr…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Cable rallied in the morning and briefly touched above previous week high (1.5383) before it reversed to fall sharply ahead of inflation report. The report came out weak and suspicious price action before that suggests that it might have been leaked. Dovish comments from two BOE officials didn't help the pair either. It then fell all the way to 1.52, nearly 200 pips from the high of the day. It broke back below 200 DMA (1.5320) which shall now act as a resistance. We'll see what UK labour market report will bring tomorrow.

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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 6: The pair was the second best performed of the week. Sterling gained a good cent against the dollar with weekly range of more than three cents. Main feature of weekly price action was a sharp reversal from inflation report induced dip. Decent labour market report (wage growth, lower unemployment rate) was enough to send the pair to 1.55 before it consolidated below the big figure.

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al_dcdemo 22 Oct.

UPDATE 7: Much better than expected September retail sales report (though accompanied by somewhat weaker revisions) just sent Cable to the top of the consolidation between 1.5410 and 1.5510. Confluence of 100 DMA, 1.55 big figure level and 76.4% retracement of the nine-day downswing have been capping the pair during the last six days, but this report may provide enough confidence to the market to at least clear stops above the resistance.

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al_dcdemo 23 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Even though BOE may end up hiking sooner rather than later and perhaps even before the Fed, the pair fell in the last two days. The decline is a consequence of weakness in the Euro, which fell on the back of very dovish ECB. 100 DMA, which currently runs near 1.55, held the topside well. 50 DMA was broken earlier today and the pair is trying to break below 200 DMA as I type.

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al_dcdemo 29 Oct.

UPDATE 9: At yesterday's FOMC meeting, Fed signaled that, all things being equal, they will hike in December. Most of the market expected them to maintain their recent neutrality and subsequent repricing sent the Euro nearly two cents lower. Cable fared somewhat better than that as it lost only three quarters of a cent. The pair is now trading below 200 DMA and, if US dollar strength continues, retest of October low (~1.51) and perhaps 1.50 will become quite likely. Confluence of 50 and 200 DMA near 1.5350 may prove to be a decent resistance in the near term.

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EURo declines overnight

al_dcdemo Updated 23 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Rising Wedge #Daily Support 2 #Stop Run #50 Dma #100 Dma #Monthly Pivot Point #Weekly Support 2
In a bout of overnight USD strength, Euro fell 80 pips, breaking below the three-week rising wedge and the Monday low (1.1290) in the process. After the substantial stop run, it stalled ahead of Daily Support 2 just above 1.1250.
The pair is basically back to the pre-FOMC levels. If it doesn't bounce from here and instead continues to fall through 1.1200 - 1.1250, it may revisit 1.1050 - 1.1120 band (March/April range top, 1.11 level, 50 DMA, Monthly Pivot Point, Weekly Support 2, 100 DMA, 1.105…
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pipx avatar
pipx 23 June

Lets hope this picks soon :-)

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al_dcdemo 23 June

It'd be nice! But I wouldn't bet a farm on it. Ok, maybe demo farm :)

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Nothing new from the Fed

al_dcdemo Updated 17 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Fomc #Fed #Stop Run #Previous Week High #Monthly Resistance 1 #Previous Day High
The Dollar got sold across the board, after the FOMC failed to deliver any clear signal on when the rates may go up. That's nothing unexpected, but the market still hoped for something more hawkish.
Following a quick stop run to 1.1205 on the announcement, Euro rocketed to 1.13 and it was a steady grind up from there. It has broken Previous Day High (1.1330) and 1.1350 but then stalled ahead of Monthly Resistance 1 (1.1366) and Previous Week High (1.1386).
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