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USD/JPY to continue lower after a retracement

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 111.25, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Support Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Sideways Trading
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone that was holding it since late 2014. Sharp decline has seen 100 week SMA taken out before it …
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al_dcdemo 8 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Beginning of a new month, quarter or year is often accompanied by a start of a larger move, be it continuation or reversal. Yen gained about five cents against the dollar so far this month (and quarter) with USD/JPY falling from ~112.55 to ~107.65. 38.2% retracement of the Abenomics upswing (~106.65) is the first major support level to watch before 200 month SMA (~105.85) and 105 big figure level. Area between broken 110 level and previous range bottom up to 111 shall provide solid resistance in the event of a deeper correction.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps mostly against the U.S. dollar and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated too. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 7: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some position adjustments - particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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EURo saw some activity on a slow day

al_dcdemo Updated 11 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #Holidays #H1 Chart #Sideways Trading
It was a sideways day in the FX markets yesterday and more of the same is expected for today with France, Canada and U.S. on holidays. Chinese data, UK jobs report and ECB president Draghi's speech may liven things up a bit, particularly in case of a bigger deviation from consensus.
Euro, which was relatively vivid, broke below 1.07, trading to as low as 1.0675, before it pulled back. Long term trendline comes in near 1.0650 and, if it goes, April (~1.0520) and March (~1.0460) lows will come int…
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