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ZAR / JPY for July 2

sharpsense Posted 7 May as Analysis on ZAR/JPY, Target: 8.70, Date: 2nd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #ZAR/JPY #Emerging Market
Indicator Used: BB, Support / Resistence, EMA 200, ATR 14
Monthly Chart:
Weekly Chart:
Pair Analyis: The Pair is slightly correcting reaching the middle Bollinger Band, the Pair could bounce from here. But I expect the pair to stabilised here and not fluctuating much, until something fundamentally changes.
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USD/JPY supported ahead of the FOMC

al_dcdemo Posted 1 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Abenomics #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Nikkei #D1 Chart #U S Tax Reform #Interest Rate Spread
USD/JPY remains fundamentally supported on both sides of equation. Progress on U.S. tax reform means prospects for more Fed hikes and wider interest rate spread. Japanese PM Abe's recent election victory means more Abenomics. After seven consecutive green weeks, Nikkei is trading at 20-year highs.
The pair started the week by falling below the 2017 resistance line, but is already back above the level. 114 is the immediate resistance before last week's high near 114.5. After that, 115 - 116 is th…
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USD/JPY gaps up as PM Abe wins election

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Abenomics #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Kuroda #Gap #D1 Chart #Japanese Election
Japanese voters supported current PM Abe on the weekend. That means at least a couple more years of Abenomics, even though BOJ governor Kuroda may not be selected for the second term next year. Stocks liked this and yen was sold.
At least initially. USD/JPY gapped 30 pips at the open and extended that by about 25 pips but it was backing a filling from there. A late round of risk aversion took the pair down to the 113.25 support, from where it bounced. 114 is the the first stronger resistance.
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AUD/JPY

sharpsense Posted 19 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/JPY, Target: 85.268, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #AUD/JPY #Rba #Bank Of Japan
Chart Scale: Weekly/Monthly
Support/Resistence near Price levels
Indicator Used: BB, CCI, EMA 200
Atr: 453 Pips
Pair Analysis:
On the monthly Chart Aud/Jpy shows divergence with CCI and Prices which means Aud/jpy could lose momentum to the upside. The monthly candle which is not finished shows reverseal, ATR is falling which means that the pair is losing buyers. On the Weekly Chart the Pair is on the middle Bollinger Band as well as on the EMA 200, it should show some resistence. Therfore I epec…
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USD/JPY

sharpsense Posted 15 July as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 111.12, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Fed
Chart / Scale: Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Indicator used: BB, CCI, Adx, Ema 200
Monthly: ATR 539 Pips
Pair Analysis:
Monthly Chart is still a bullish case possible, However Atr is falling unless it starts rising the Advantages are for the market going sideways especially proposed during the summer month. CCI is n the zeroline, there is no Advantages for the bulls or the bears. there is a big resistence zone around 114 and 115 area.
Monthly Chart:
Weekly Chart:
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sharpsense 17 Aug.

Usd/jpy could soon trigger a daily sell which would make the sideways pattern more unlikely

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USD/JPY

sharpsense Posted 21 May as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 108.22, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Yellen #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Fed
Technical Indicators used:
horizontal/vertical lines
support resistence
EMA: 200 / 100 / 50 / 20
Fundamental:
Japan still fight deflation, Fed will soon Hike Rates / Correlation to the S&P 500.
Weekly Chart:
Monthly Chart:
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USD/JPY

sharpsense Posted 15 Apr. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 1.09103, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Forex #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Carry Trade
Technical Indicators used:
Horizontal lines /resistence, ATR, Bollinger Band, EMA 200
There is a big resistence around 1.0850 and 1.10 (Magic Number) I think Prices will not push though significantly unless some real fundamentals change
Fundamentals:
Bank of Japan will continue Abenomics and will at some Points probably increase bond purchasing programme to fight Deflation. Fed will rise rate which should support the us dollar.
Monthly Chart
Weekly Chart
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Yen flirting with 100

al_dcdemo Updated 7 July  in #Trader's blog #Abenomics #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #D1 Chart #Brexit Low
USD/JPY fell again overnight and is currently trading just above 50.0% retracement of the Abenomics uptrend. If it ends the day in the red, that would be the fifth consecutive day of losses.
Although breached two times, the aforementioned level so far held, having been reinforced by the big round 100 level. A weekly close below one or both of the levels would point to a retest of the Brexit low (98.95) in the days ahead. 102.50 could cap near term upticks.
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Is 110 - 115 the new range for USD/JPY?

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 112.25, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #38 2 Retracement #Record Long Position #Sharp Breakout
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone that was holding it since late 2014. The decline has seen 100 week SMA, 2013 - 2014 trendlin…
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 5: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 6: After consolidating for almost a week, USD/JPY appears to be breaking to the upside. Rumours of sales tax hike delay and weaker GDP print to come Wednesday morning are doing the rounds and may have contributed to the yen weakness. Area between 109.45 and 110, which includes 61.8% retracement of the BOJ meeting downswing, is the immediate resistance with 50 DMA (currently 110.30) and 76.4% retracement (110.40) the two stronger levels above the big figure. 108.75 - 109.25 shall now hold as a support.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. Loonie, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. Cable on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).

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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: Following through on Yellen-induced Friday gains, the dollar strengthened further against the yen overnight and in early European session. News about sales tax hike delay and lackluster retail sales report from Japan helped to support USD/JPY. The pair rallied more than 100 pips before stalling near the middle of the pre-BOJ range between 110.65 and 111.85. The range top is the first resistance level before 100 DMA and the broken 2013 - 2014 trendline. 109.75 - 110.25 shall hold in case of a deeper pullback.

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USD/JPY to continue lower after a retracement

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 111.25, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Support Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Sideways Trading
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone that was holding it since late 2014. Sharp decline has seen 100 week SMA taken out before it …
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al_dcdemo 8 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Beginning of a new month, quarter or year is often accompanied by a start of a larger move, be it continuation or reversal. Yen gained about five cents against the dollar so far this month (and quarter) with USD/JPY falling from ~112.55 to ~107.65. 38.2% retracement of the Abenomics upswing (~106.65) is the first major support level to watch before 200 month SMA (~105.85) and 105 big figure level. Area between broken 110 level and previous range bottom up to 111 shall provide solid resistance in the event of a deeper correction.

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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps mostly against the U.S. dollar and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated too. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 7: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some position adjustments - particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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