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Loonie to go nowhere fast in April

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3275, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Neutral Technicals #Net Short Positioning #Support/resistance Area #Cautious Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal has been followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. Su…
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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Better than expected Chinese data, that was released overnight, hasn't had a great deal of impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then the ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while the BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 8: Canadian dollar weakened as U.S. president Trump announces up to 24% percent tax on lumber imports from Canada. 100th day of his presidency is closing in as he struggles to get something done. Wall on Mexico's border is to be postponed until autumn to avoid a government shutdown. USD/CAD rallied about 65 pips from the overnight low of 1.3495, to 1.3560. 50.0% retracement of the 2016 downswing is at 1.3575 and 2017 high is near 1.36. Those are the initial targets. Broken March high (1.3535) is the first stronger support ahead of the big figure (1.35).

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al_dcdemo 27 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Canadian dollar has been under the cosh this week. The currency made a new low for the year after U.S. taxed Canadian lumber and another one yesterday after the talk that the U.S. is about to withdraw from NAFTA. However, Trump agreed with leaders of Canada and Mexico not to terminate NAFTA and the currency staged a rebound. I took only two hours for the USD/CAD to fall from 1.3650 to 1.3530 before buyers stepped back in. 1.3535 (March high) is the immediate support. A stronger one may be encountered between 1.3450 and 1.35. 1.36 - 1.3650 could see some selling.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 10: The story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against the yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, although better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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USD/JPY may well continue sideways

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.7500, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Correction #Uptrend #Spike #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Neutral Technicals #Sell Off #Faltering Recovery
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke back below the monthly resistance cluster an…
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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 4: In this mostly sideways week for the pair, yen lost half a cent against the dollar. Weekly range was about a cent and a half wide. The pair gapped down on Monday, but the gap was closed in a matter of hours and the pair rose to 123.25 by the end of that day. Thursday saw a bit of a correction which didn't manage to break below 122.50.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 5: In the week ahead Japan will report inflation data plus few other economic indicators. U.S. will publish several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Both countries will observe Thanksgiving holiday. Technically, the pair still looks bullish but recent failure to continue much past September 9th high warns that a near term correction may be in the making.

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al_dcdemo 25 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The Yen is currently trading in the lower half of one of the smallest weekly ranges of this year. There were some geopolitical tensions yesterday but it wasn't enough to make any significant dent in risk trades, which soon rebounded. 122 is key to hold but below it we have possibly even more important 121.50 level where 50, 100 and 200 DMA may converge in the days ahead. On the upside the first stronger resistance is expected at 123.75 - 124.00 and then around 125.

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al_dcdemo 27 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In another sideways week, the pair has barely managed to produce a 100 pip range. It closed the week essentially unchanged. After a quick surge at the opening, the pair started to fall and touched as low as 122.25 on Wednesday morning. Thursday's range was one of the tightest in months as it measured only 25 pips. A new range appears to be 122 - 124.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Japan will release several lower-tier indicators next week but nothing market moving. U.S. macroeconomic data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Unless the data or the ECB or any external shock makes it move, the pair will likely stay in its recent (122 - 124) range until Friday (NFP).

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USD/CHF remains well supported

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9575, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Turmoil #Neutral Technicals #Descending Trendline #Supportive Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: The long awaited September FOMC meeting will finally happen next week, on Thursday. I think the chances for the Fed to begin tightening are quite good. Despite recent worries regarding global markets, this may be best opportunity for the lift-off this year. If it happens and they remain hawkish, the pair will likely retest at least August high near 0.99 and perhaps parity. If not, 50 DMA is the first line of defense ahead of 200 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 7: There are a couple of economic data points coming up from Switzerland later in the week (UBS Consumption Indicator, KOF Economic Barometer, Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI) but hardly anything market moving. ISM Manufacturing PMI and jobs report from the US are the releases that the pair is waiting for. 50 DMA has been doing its job of supporting the pair ahead of 100 and 200 DMA. Strong resistance zone 0.9850 - 0.9900 remains intact.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 2: Yesterday's range-bound trading with falling volatility extended into ultra tight consolidation in today's Asian session, which then broke to the upside just before Europe opened for business. The pair climbed some 40 pips from there but is pulling back as I type. 50 DMA is doing its job well and, unless the pair falls below it, near-term technical picture remains bullish.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 30 Sep.

Great analysis and good accuracy!

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

Thanks!

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USD/CHF enjoys SNB support

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9525, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting #Range #Strong Resistance #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Neutral Technicals #Bullish Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 8: Apart from a couple of low tier economic data points (UBS Consumption Indicator, KOF Economic Barometer) there's nothing particularly market moving on the calendar for the week ahead from Switzerland. Main risk events come from across the Atlantic: (Core) Durable Goods Orders, FOMC meeting, Advance GDP. Resistance is seen near 0.9750 (March 31th and April 22th highs) and then 0.9850 (April 13th high). Strong support remains in place at 0.95.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 July

Also about 100 pips away! Great! If the dollar appreciates this week it may be very close!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

We'll see, it has to go down a bit. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: The pair continued its steady uptrend throughout the week. The most prominent feature of this uptrend are deep pullbacks, but they were all soaked up quickly as evident by the lower tails on recent daily candles. Even strong sell-off on Friday was reversed in just a couple of hours. It was the third week in the row that the pair ended up higher.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: As is usual for the first week of the month, we'll get a slew of economic data and it could get quite volatile. NFP report is the most important data point as the Fed may soon be hiking rates based on labour market strength. Demand may start coming in near 0.96 while the strong 0.95 level remains in place if we get any (un)expected sell-offs. Initial resistance is seen near 0.9725.

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