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Стартові приготування

weagull Posted 1 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Correction #Channel

Враховуючи варіанти завершення корекційних рухів по індексу долара, всі доларові пари можливо вважати схильними до зростання волотильності, що виводить їх в ранг трендових можливостей. А там де тренд, там завжди простіше отримати правильні сигнали для проведення торгівлі. Приводжу валютну пару usdcad. Як вважаю після деякої коррекційності в хвилі типу В отримаємо підтвердження на трендове спадання. Інші пари проти канадця демонструють подібні сценарії, що теж можливо використовувати в торгівлі.…
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Are we on the verge of the Big Diversification?

al_dcdemo Posted 9 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Correction #S P 500 #D1 Chart #Bond Yields #Digital Assets #Cryptocurrencies #Market Capitalization
S&P 500 is down about 10%, which is still well within the realms of a healthy market correction, though sellers do not appear to be done. According to Wall Street's rule of thumb, bull market officially ends when 20% is exceeded on a sustained basis. Bond yields are firm, which suggests investors are moving at least partly into cash.
Now, imagine if only a fraction of the 70T global stock market (nevermind 300T+ in other liquid assets) diversifies into digital assets. Cryptocurrency market capit…
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FXRabbit 10 Feb.

I never thought about this and great assessment, which I doubt can be rebuttal or ignored for that matter. This possibly explains the rebound in the crypto currency prices going higher in the last few days of past week. Very good blog!

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Sharpshooter 10 Feb.

Красиво упали. То ли еще будет

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al_dcdemo 12 Feb.

я очень согласен

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al_dcdemo 12 Feb.

HODL is the keyword. :)

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День другий

salamandra Posted 3 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Correction #Gartley Pattern
Що ж почав я цей рік з паттернів, так вже і продовжу. Вони часто зароджуються, але розгадати вдається вже тільки останню їхню складову якщо вдало представити попередні. Розглядати їх можливо на любому часовому інтервалі. Ось як приклад на М15 валютної пари audjpy. Сьогодні валюти трохи порухались, що були визначено вже деякою волотильністю після різдвяних і новорічних свят. Із стартом нового місяця очікувана новина від ФРС може трохи зменшити волотильність. Хотілось би вже скоріше почути від них…
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AUDcad на 1 лютого

weagull Posted 25 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9930, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/CAD #Correction #Support Area #Resistance Area
По аналогії як в audusd продовжую.
Валютна пара на недільному графіку з виставленими рівнями Фібоначчі може направлятись до рівнів 50% чи 61.8%. Вище в даний момент не має предпосилок.
Для денного вибирала невелике пониження до рівня 38.2% з дальнішим ростом. Схематично все показала на малюнку. Ціну на завершення аналізу вибираю на рівні - 0.9930
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AUDusd на 1 лютого

weagull Posted 25 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7650, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Correction #Support Area #Resistance Area
Аналіз австралійських можливостей почну з валютної пари audusd. Вважаю, що інші валютні пари з австралійським доларом можуть вести себе майже аналогічно цій валютній парі.
Валютна пара на недільному графіку з виставленими рівнями Фібоначчі може направлятись до рівнів 50% чи 61.8%. Вище в даний момент не має предпосилок.
Для денного вибирала два можливих варіанти з спільним рівнем завершення Схематично все показала на малюнку. Ціну на завершення аналізу вибираю на рівні - 0.7650
…
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USDjpy на 1 лютого

weagull Posted 25 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 114.215, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Correction #Triangle Pattern
Валютна пара на недільному графіку мною згідно вказаних напрямків ( жирна чорна ламана ) знаходиться в корекційному трикутнику чи плоскій корекції де даний рух ще може продовживатись якийст проміжок часу. Вихід з еліпса буде в сторону росту з переходом на завершення в сторону пониження самої корекційної структури. Дальше імпульсні тенденції.
Розглядаючи структуру денного графіку більше схилаюсь до пониження як першої складової. Схематично все показала на малюнку. Ціну на завершення аналізу вибир…
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EURUsd and GbpUsd correction to be expected

Reloaded Posted 14 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Trend #Eurusd #Bullish #Gbpusd #Correction
The bullish move on the EURO and CABLE should continue for a little longer but for the time being aretracement is to be expected. Both pairs bouncing arround the 50% retracement of the down move. Closing positions now and reentering once the correction is finished.keeping the position clised until the market starts to show new signs of strenth at a significant support level.
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Aussie to consolidate around 0.75 in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7525, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Correction #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD finally cracked the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 in July and the convincing break above the pattern extended to 0.8125, just ahe…
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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Week ahead might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 10: After months of underperformance, Australian Retail Sales improved in November. iPhone X and Black Friday sales have been cited. AUD/USD jumped 40 pips and is holding the gains. 0.7875 - 0.79 area, that includes 61.8% retracement of the September - December downswing, is the immediate barrier. 0.7850 is the initial support.

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al_dcdemo 15 Jan.

UPDATE 11: Australian dollar started the week on the front foot and is approaching 0.7975 - 0.80 area, where it is likely to encounter at least some resistance. It's Martin Luther King Day today in the U.S. - thinner liquidity could lead to either tighter volatility or outsized moves.

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0.75 may not hold Aussie in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7450, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Correction #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD finally cracked the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 in July and the convincing break above the pattern extended to 0.8125, just ahe…
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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go just up, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet this year.

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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other G10 major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Week ahead might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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EURo to retrace some more in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 22 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1725, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Correction #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Political Risks
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
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al_dcdemo 11 Nov.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar recorded a losing week as recent gains on tax reform hopes have been pared. U.S. Senate plans to propose delaying corporate tax cut until 2019. U.S. dollar index is closing in on the trendline, drawn off of September and October lows.

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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 20 Nov.

UPDATE 7: Sunday news from Germany about Free Democrats breaking off Merkel's coalition was meet with a 75 pip decline after the open. Late shorts were squeezed in European trading, to just above 1.18, where new round of selling began. 1.17 may not yield easily.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 8: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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