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Daily Fractal Pattern suggest further downside in August

Jignesh Posted 31 July as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5158, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Support #Trendline #Gbpusd #Fibonacci #Reistance #Elliottwave
The GBPUSD has been quite bullish since bottoming mid April. As of late, however, the pair has been struggling to make any significant weekly advances.
There is a pattern that has already been seen on the daily chart, that has now appeared in fractal form on the 4H chart. On the daily it marked a point of turn in price, and the expectation will be the same for 4H, which can trigger further bearish price action in the month of August.
Levels
1.5690 - July 29 Spike high ** Key resistance and patte…
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WallStreet6 2 Aug.

I'm also anticipating the cable turning into bearish trend, but first I thought it was going to appreciate.  But maybe you're right that the bullish sentiment is running out.

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Jignesh 2 Aug.

I agree WallStreet6 .. I've been long this pair for over 3 weeks now.  Was expecting a lot more upside than we've seen.  Looking for an pullback towards resistance early week and then the bearish trend to start.  A break above recent highs would invalidate my wave count.

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Jignesh 7 Aug.

This week we've had 2 big moves in the GBPUSD. First was after a weaker than expected MPC Vote, it triggered a nice selloff in the pair, and then surprisingly today after a weak NFP number, it caused another sell off.  Currently we are trading at the daily trendline, which has provided some support for the pair.  Will be looking to see if the pair catches a bounce here, before it continues selling off next week.

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AUDUSD 1H Trendline on the verge of breaking

Jignesh Posted 11 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Trendline #Fibonacci #Channel #Elliottwave
The AUDUSD has recently shown a major channel break on it's 4H chart, suggesting a further bearish continuation.
The chart below shows the break, as well as an Elliott Wave count that suggests the structure from 02 April Lows has been completed
So far, we can see that after a brief channel break, the pair came back up to retest the 76.4% Fibonacci Level and has once again broken lower. As well, we can see another retest of the bottom of the channel which was also met with a bearish rejection.
Wi…
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EURAUD Back up against Daily 200SMA ahead of ECB

Jignesh Posted 5 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Fibonacci #Euraud #Moving Average
The EURAUD had a nice move to the downside after rejection of the 200SMA in the second week of October. This week we've seen a quick ramp up to close the day off once again the Moving Average.
The Daily EURAUD Chart above shows the upside resistance at the daily 200MA as well as the 76.4% Fib retracement of the last leg down. This area should offer some major resistance ahead of the ECB. This can be a very important inflection point for swing traders, as a hold here signals a big move to the dow…
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2 Comments
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Bimlesh 6 Nov.

As usual, you are excellent at putting up the things, blending both technical and news...

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Jignesh 6 Nov.

Thank you my friend :)

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GBPCAD looking to retest highs once again

Jignesh Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/CAD, Target: 1.8580, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/CAD #Fibonacci #Elliot Wave #Elliott Wave #Abc Correction #Gbpcad
GBPCAD has a clear wave count that can be seen on smaller time cyles which gives a better insight on the overal picture as the pair has mostly been consolidating for the year.
Levels
1.7653 - Daily Support Zone
1.7850 - Monthly Fib Level
1.8580 - Resistance
1.8648 - Previous spike high
The month chart shows the pair has not been able to close below it's 23.6% retracement, and the most recent leg catching a good bounce from that area as per the below chart.
Figure 1 - GBPCAD Monthly - fails to po
…
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4 Comments
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Jignesh 5 Nov.

The pair has started the month on a bullish note, and has caught some resistance at 1.8288.  So far it looks like a double correction has been completed and a pull back is anticipated here.  1.8070 offers a good support zone with the 50% Fib level as well as previous resistance.  The second support level would be the important 1.7952.  As long as price is contained by these levels, the upside view remains.

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Jignesh 9 Nov.

The pair ended the week with what appears to be a double bottom on smaller time frames against 1.7952.  The level is an important level in larger time frames and also marks the 76.4% retracement of the last leg up 1.7853-1.8288.  This is a critical level for upside momentum for the month.  The CAD has been showing strength as of late, and thus will be monitoring this level for the week.

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Jignesh 17 Nov.

The pair has broken through support and continues to look bearish. 

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Jignesh 25 Nov.

The technicals on this pair continue to look weak, as well from a fundamental perspective the GBP has become very bearish.  I don't anticipate a turn around in the pair

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AUDCAD Struggles Ahead of Parity

Jignesh Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 0.9417, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #AUD/CAD #Audcad #Fibonacci #Elliott Wave #Parity
AUDCAD has been getting some footing over the last few weeks, but the clear trend and heavy momentum appears to the downside.
The Monthly outlook on the pair shows the top in Feb 2012 and a larger cycle to the downside is in play.
Levels
1.0000 - Phsycological Parity level
0.9970 - Weekly Resistance Level
0.9960 - October High & 50% Retracement of last leg down (1.0234-96.88)
0.9830 - Weekly/Monthly minor support and Fib confluence area
0.9417 - Weekly/Monthly Major support and Fib confluence …
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Jignesh 17 Nov.

AUDCAD has gained back much of it's losses from early in the month as is typical of a the first wave in a new structure.  The levels to watch for further downside momentum are 0.9930-.9940 which marks that 76.4% retracement of the last leg down.  And the area of previous resistance.  The 88.8% retracement comes in at 99.60 - a break of which would negate downside pressure.

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Jignesh 25 Nov.

As per previous comments the intial leg and retracement supported the view as outlined in the analysis.  However recent consolidation requires a break for further momentum.  Fundamentals out of China with an unexpected rate cut can have some implications for the AUD.  This week the CAD can put some pressure on the pair as the CAD futures are showing potential signs of reversal as well as oil.

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Jignesh 25 Nov.

Over the last 12 hours, the pair has broken lower out of consolidation.  The blue box on the chart above marks the previous October lows.  The Bollinger bands indicate that the momentum is strong to the downside on the daily chart, and this move looks like it is just beginning to start.

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Jignesh 27 Nov.

AUDCAD has made a surprising sharp reversal.  The CAD has been slightly weaker in the last 12 hours but not to warrant such a move.  Flows can be coming in through AUDUSD which has the bulls fighting to protect a major 50% fib retracement from 2008 lows to 2011 highs found on  the weekly chart. 

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Jignesh 28 Nov.

After an ABC structure to the upside, the pair has managed to once again turn bearish.  So far momentum is looking good to the downside, however with well over 200 pips from targets and just over 1 day trading left, the targets are most likely out of scope for this pair.

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Playing the Channel on EURNZD

Jignesh Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/NZD, Target: 1.5806, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #NZD #Fibonacci #Channel #Downtrend #EUR/NZD #Candlesticks #Moving Average
Overview
The EURNZD is in a channel on the Daily chart. So far it has shown clear rejection from the upper channel line after briefly spiking to the weekly 200MA.
The pair is trending down after peaking in late August of 2013. After posting an engulfing candle against the daily channel, the expectation is for the downtrend to continue at this point.
Levels
1.6462 - Weekly 200 Moving Average
1.6340 - Daily Close Sept 28 (Close below trendline after spike)
1.5806 - Daily 61.8% retracement of …
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Jignesh 9 Oct.

The pair faced a rejection of the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down just prior to the FOMC minutes today.  It may be too early to tell, but so far the weekly candle stick pattern is shaping up to be in favour of a bigger leg to the downside

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Jignesh 13 Oct.

First level of resistance comes at 1.6192 which marks last week's open.  With the second level of resistance coming in at 1.6226 (weekly fib level).  A spike high this week is a certain possibility but the focus is on a lower weekly close, preferable taking out support at last week's low at 1.6030

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Jignesh 24 Oct.

While moving the targets, the pair made a rapid reversal on a slew of data both negative for the NZD and positive for the EUR.  1.6200 is upside resistance,  A close below 1.6140 (weekly trendline)  will be required to maintain downside pressure.

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Jignesh 27 Oct.

The reversal correction is starting to show that it has completed and the downtrend may have resumed.  The biggest risk event for the pair this week will be the RBNZ statement.  It is well known that the central bank wants to see the kiwi lower and will most likely attempt to jawbone the currency at the event on Wednesday. 

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Jignesh 31 Oct.

The FOMC and RBNZ on Wednesday played Havoc on the pair, but not only has it managed to retrace the gains within a short period of time, it has not broken to new lows taking out support at 1.6015. 
With the ATR of this pair, it has good potential to reach targets.  Event risk for the EUR coming shortly with CPI estimates expected to have high impact.

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EURAUD - Daily Engulfing candle at 38.2% retracement

Jignesh Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/AUD, Target: 1.3676, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #EUR #Fibonacci #EUR/AUD #Pullback #Downtrend #Candlesticks #200Ma #Engulfing
Overview
The EURAUD has been pulling back from a downtrend that started at the beginning of this year.
The daily engulfing candle at the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement hints that the pull back has completed and the downtrend may resume
Levels
1.4576 - 38.2% Retracement on Daily
1.3676 - Daily Trendline projection for Nov 2
1.3588 - 127% Extension on Daily (1.3800 - 1.4587)
1.3530 - Weekly 200 Moving Average
Figure 1 - EURAUD Daily - Engulfing candle at 38.2% Fib retracement

Figure
…
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4 Comments
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Jignesh 6 Oct.

The week closed off to draw a doji on the weekly chart, and the new week has the pair testing last week's low ahead of the London Open.  A daily close below this level (1.4340) will confirm a reversal is most likely on it's way.

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Jignesh 9 Oct.

EURAUD is struggling to break through it's weekly range.  There has been a spike down which saw buyer's stepping in.  Once again, the pair is approaching that key 1.4340 opening range level.  A break below is required to build momentum to the downside.

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Jignesh 13 Oct.

The pair has traded through the previous high to make a new high.  The 200 Daily MA comes in focus at 1.4626 to put pressure to the downside with a fib level slightly above at 1.4661 to contain any spikes.  This will be the last line in the sand for the pair for any downside pressure to remain.

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Jignesh 24 Oct.

The 200 Daily SMA has held, and the downside looks promising.  The targets in this prediction still remain valid, however the completion time may take longer as the pair has spent quite a bit of time consolidating.

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