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Swissie to continue range trading

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9675, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Rejection #Corrective Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and 2015 highs. It then started to carve out a c…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place on September 21th showed nothing that we haven't already known. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that the federal funds rate is going up, barring an economic shock. The committee members more or less agree on the need to raise the rate, it is the timing that is still being considered. The U.S. dollar broadly strengthened after the release but there's some profit taking noted today. A part of the reason may well be much weaker than expected  Chinese export data that could be taken as a sign of slowing global growth.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB asset purchases. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that the FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. The U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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Swissie to continue sideways trading

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9725, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Rejection #Corrective Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and 2015 highs. It then started to carve out a c…
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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead will be among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. The bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, after they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. This outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The U.S. dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a big part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the U.S. dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some heavy position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher timeframes). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty around U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the Q4.

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al_dcdemo 3 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Contrary to expectations of many market participants, September turned out to be a mostly sideways month. One reason were certainly central banks, namely the Fed and the BOJ, and lack of action on their part. There was nothing new from the SNB, though there were a couple of occasions where they have likely intervened in the market to prevent the franc to strengthen. All in all, I think my prediction was good. I didn't quite catch the price path but the sideways nature of the market helped the price end the forecast period near the target.

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Swissie to remain supported

al_dcdemo Posted 26 July as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Rejection #Corrective Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and 2015 highs. It then started to carve out a co…
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al_dcdemo 8 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies mostly remained in Friday's ranges which were a result of a much better than expected U.S. jobs and wages report. The least action was in the euro while the yen and the antipodean dollars performed better. Today's markets were reminiscent of subdued summer trading but, as we have seen multiple times in recent months, they never lasted more than a couple of days. I think we won't need to wait until Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium to get the next big move.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Another subdued weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, we have a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, taking stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged for the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's pullback/reversal. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later this year.

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al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Last Friday's speech by Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about room for further monetary policy action made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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Will Brexit push USD/CHF above parity?

al_dcdemo Posted 25 June as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9925, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Rejection #Corrective Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and 2015 highs. It then started to carve out a c…
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al_dcdemo 13 July

UPDATE 5: Swissie rose about 200 pips over the past two weeks, reflecting better risk sentiment as Brexit worries subsided. SNB stand ready to intervene whenever they deem necessary. Latest U.S. labour market figures were helpful too. The pair is now holding above 0.98 and 200 DMA (~0.9850). The area between the levels is the initial support ahead of 50 DMA and 100 DMA near 0.9750. 0.99, May high (~0.9950) and parity (1.00) are the next targets.

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al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 6: Swissie is struggling to maintain foothold above 200 DMA. I closed above it four times last week but upper tails on daily candles are suggesting substantial supply coming in ahead of 0.99 level. If the level gives way, 0.9950 (May high) is the next target before parity. Trendline drawn off of November and January highs is currently running at 1.01. A half-cent area above 50 DMA shall hold, if the uptrend is to continue.

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al_dcdemo 29 July

UPDATE 7: Swissie lost more than 150 pips since Wednesday's FOMC decision to keep federal funds rate steady. The pair has convincingly broken below 200 DMA and is currently holding south of pivotal 0.98 level, just above the important 50 DMA. If the moving average gives way, there's more at 100 DMA near 0.9750 ahead of July low (~0.9685). 0.9850 - 0.99 now looks like a decent sell zone.

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al_dcdemo 30 July

UPDATE 8: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be minuscule, labor market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved overall and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP print. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained around 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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USD/CHF to surge above parity level once again

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0025, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Corrective Pattern #Strong Rally #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and January 2015 highs. It then started to carve…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report may have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of the European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 8 June

UPDATE 5: Swissie has been one of the big movers in the past few days. There were no particular drivers cited but U.S. dollar weakness after Friday's NFP report and flight to safety in the run up to UK EU referendum are certainly two of them. The pair lost 250 pips in three days and more than 300 from the top, set in May near 0.9950. It is back below the three daily moving averages and is currently testing 2011 - 2016 trendline with 100 WMA (0.9625) just below. 50 DMA is the initial resistance.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY.  Commodity currencies continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 7: In Thursday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made new lows before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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USD/CHF to visit parity level in May

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Corrective Pattern #Monthly Trendline #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools

Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and January 2015 highs. It then started to carve out…
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 6: Last few days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 7: Swissie finally broke above the strong resistance level at 0.98. The breakout came overnight on low volumes so I would be wary of a pullback, perhaps on the release of FOMC meeting minutes later today. The immediate resistance is the confluence of 100 DMA and 200 DMA. Beyond that, 0.99 and 1.00 are the next levels where I'd expect some selling to come in. 0.975 - 0.98 shall now hold as a support, if this market is indeed bullish.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 8: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 9: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23th).

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 10: After a fake break to the downside on May 3rd, the day the U.S. dollar made a turn against most major currencies, Swissie barely ever looked back. One cent pullback was all that it has managed in a five cent rally so far. However, the rally is getting overextended and I'd expect plenty of supply ahead of the parity level. A logical area for a pullback support would be between 0.98 and 0.9850, which includes the upside breakout point (0.98), 100 DMA and 200 DMA.

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USD/CHF to retest four-month channel top

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0025, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Corrective Pattern #Monthly Trendline #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and January 2015 highs. It then started to carve ou…
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps, mostly against the U.S. dollar, and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated too. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great couple of days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some position adjustments - particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 7: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as most commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 8: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation and several central bank speakers.

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al_dcdemo 28 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Yesterday's FOMC decision proved to be a non-event. The committee made a couple of adjustments to the statement but the message remained basically the same and there was no hint of a timing of the next rate hike. The market did what it usually does after high impact releases that change nothing - it ran stops on both sides before returning to pre-release range. Tomorrow's U.S. Q1 Advance GDP will likely provide a better signal as to the direction.

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USD/JPY Elliott wave Analysis

tdurai84 Posted 9 June  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Abc #Corrective Pattern #Elliottwave Analysis
Since starting of this year 2014 we have seen consolidation pattern developing on USD/JPY pair.
As we can seen in the above chart USD /JPY pair approaching channel line of ABC corrective wave. as per my Elliott wave count this pair already finished Wave A and Wave B of ABC corrective pattern . Now progressing wave C of in pink, this [b] wave moving continuously upside from starting of this month and approching major level 103 and also downtrend channel line ABC corrective pattern.
Looking at the[/b]…
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CAD/JPY Further Upside Movement Expecting

Daytrader21 Posted 10 Nov. as Analysis on CAD/JPY, Target: 96.2000, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #Correction #Ascending Triangle #Corrective Pattern #Range Pattern #CAD/JPY
The CAD/JPY currency pair does not form a major pair even though the yen is considered a major currency, but over the past year it has provided many trading opportunities. On the daily chart we can see an ascending triangle chart pattern which conforms with the Elliot Wave requirement of a five wave move. Based on this I see the last deep towards the 92.90 low, labeled E in Figure 1, as the last correction to the downside before the market to resume upwards.
[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 1. We're having our first confirmation that we're at beginning of new five wave sequence after we broke out the daily triangle pattern, the momentum has accelerate to the upside this is just the first wave and I'm expecting 96.90 to cap this upside movement and have our first retracement and retest the triangle breakout which could be the second wave from where I'm momentum to pick up again and resume the uptrend

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 2: CADJPY has broke to the upside following the correlation with the USDJPY. We're just developing wave 3 of this upside leg that started from 92.90. Based on Elliott Wave wave nr 4 should be composed on some kind of a range type price action so in the next days we should expect more consolidation between 95.30-96.40

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 3: As expected from my previous update the market has been moving in a tight range and the 97.40 should cap the upside movement. In order for that to hold we need a final spike up into that level and a quick sell off, from where I'm expecting an abc correction

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Daytrader21 9 Dec.

Update 4: The market seems stuck between a tight range 97.00 resistance level and 95.00 support level and because we are in wave 2 stage which based on Elliot wave it's a slow phase we could see the market staying in this range longer than expected

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Daytrader21 14 Dec.

Update 5: Although the momentum has started to pick up, the structure of this up wave suggest that is a corrective wave, however the next resistance levels is around 98.00 level from where we should see the momentum turning to the downside, we are not far from our target of 96.20

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