For the larger part of the year I have been bullish the AUDUSD. I recall several times when other traders disagreed and felt the pair would continue to move lower. My view still remains the same as it has. I expect one more leg up in the pair.
I've largely ignored the Aussie in the last month. The pair is looking like it is consolidating sideways. After this week's close however, we see that the pair has pulled back nicely against it's previous low. At these levels, I find there is a good risk to reward ratio to take a long position on the pair, however, chasing the last leg up is not always a high probability setup.
Also, with the anticipated USD strength, there would need to be some from of a catalyst for a bullish move at this point. I've blogged about it earlier this week, but we did not see a change in monetary policy. I do feel the RBA needs to address the concerns of inflation at some point, even if they skirted around it this time.
I'll be contemplating over the weekend to take a position at current levels to take advantage of the RR or to wait until some for of a catalyst to take a position in the pair. A break of the May lows would negate the bullish view I have.
I've pasted a chart below of the AUDUSD versus the other commodity currencies performing against the dollar, along with the Dollar Index. It is certainly interesting to see a clearly lower momentum in the AUD to the downside than it's commodity counterparts.
I've largely ignored the Aussie in the last month. The pair is looking like it is consolidating sideways. After this week's close however, we see that the pair has pulled back nicely against it's previous low. At these levels, I find there is a good risk to reward ratio to take a long position on the pair, however, chasing the last leg up is not always a high probability setup.
Also, with the anticipated USD strength, there would need to be some from of a catalyst for a bullish move at this point. I've blogged about it earlier this week, but we did not see a change in monetary policy. I do feel the RBA needs to address the concerns of inflation at some point, even if they skirted around it this time.
I'll be contemplating over the weekend to take a position at current levels to take advantage of the RR or to wait until some for of a catalyst to take a position in the pair. A break of the May lows would negate the bullish view I have.
I've pasted a chart below of the AUDUSD versus the other commodity currencies performing against the dollar, along with the Dollar Index. It is certainly interesting to see a clearly lower momentum in the AUD to the downside than it's commodity counterparts.
