During the past few weeks the euro found support three different times via the 11500-line, which roughly represents the top of the 2015/16 range. Friday’s rip was impressive enough to cast doubt on the notion that the descending wedge developing since late-May will lead to an eventual breakdown.
Should this 3rd attempt to trade lower prove to have given the euro a passing grade, a recovery in the week ahead into the 11800s and higher could quickly develop. Trade above 11720 will have focus on the ECB-day high at 11852. Should the euro falter yet again, though, pressure on the 11500-level might become too great to hold. It’s looking like the less probable scenario after the late-week surge, but a break of 11500 will in all probability have sellers hitting bids in earnest.
Overall, EUR/USD is poised to trade higher in the days ahead, and while this may offer some good top-side opportunities, the general feeling is that it will be a recovery type rally and not a full-on bull market move. A breakout above the top of the wedge (April trend-line) will have focus on dip-buying opportunities on the 4-hr chart. A matured descending wedge with a solid break below 11500 will put us in the sellers' camp.
Should this 3rd attempt to trade lower prove to have given the euro a passing grade, a recovery in the week ahead into the 11800s and higher could quickly develop. Trade above 11720 will have focus on the ECB-day high at 11852. Should the euro falter yet again, though, pressure on the 11500-level might become too great to hold. It’s looking like the less probable scenario after the late-week surge, but a break of 11500 will in all probability have sellers hitting bids in earnest.
Overall, EUR/USD is poised to trade higher in the days ahead, and while this may offer some good top-side opportunities, the general feeling is that it will be a recovery type rally and not a full-on bull market move. A breakout above the top of the wedge (April trend-line) will have focus on dip-buying opportunities on the 4-hr chart. A matured descending wedge with a solid break below 11500 will put us in the sellers' camp.
