Next week is definitely going to be full of high risk event as we're going to have interest rates announcements from ECB, BOE and RBA which should add some volatility. After last week NFP big surprise to the upside figures although initially the dollar got a bid by the end of the day it erased those gains and we had a general broad based dollar weakness. If you're still confused about this general dollar weakness I've made a blog post right before the NFP announcement where I spoke about why you should expect further dollar weakness no matter of what NFP would bring. You can read it here: NFP. Jobs Report
The major event for sure would be the ECB meeting but not because they will engage in some aggressive monetary policy to tame down the deflationary pressures, because it will be quite contrary they will engage only in some verbal rhetoric without taking any specific actions. But we have already seen periphery EU yields going lower comparing with the levels we saw 2 years ago. This reason in itself will stop ECB from doing some aggressive easing and also because the euro structural issues of not having a single euro denominated bond market thus making less probably that any massive EURO devaluation will take place and this should keep the exchange rate in balance in the coming months as I think ECB verbal intervention and introducing negative rate deposits will be enough to keep euro in a ranging zone until 2015. The conclusion is that for the time being the risk remains to the upside for EUR/USD.
Wednesday we have Fed's Yellen speech which is going to be her first appearance after last week better than expected job figures, and we should see her outlook and how Fed interpreted this figures.
The strength of Uk economy is helping to widen interest rate differentials in sterling's favor. I've been spoken about cable since beginning of the year that it is at risk for a major upside movement and you can read more bout my reasons here: 2014 FX Market Outlook - GBP(part 3)
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
