Since the market is going to be quite until Tuesday and as such there is no point in staring at charts and looking for trading opportunities, I decided to do some reading and came across one of the points mentioned in my article posted a while back, so thought I would post it here for traders who haven't read it yet.

Thinking in Probabilities:
"When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance"

Forex trading forums are common place where retail forex traders post their price chart with technical analysis and justification for their trades. Out of these trades some trades end up in profit and some in losses. When these traders experience a losing trade then they somewhat doubt their analysis and often post charts with a query "Why my trade failed" as if they are expecting every trade to be profitable.

One of the major obstacle a novice retail trader face is they give too much importance to an individual trade and get upset or excited after couple of winners or losers and doubt their ability and change their trade plan too often. They fail to understand that trading is game of probabilities. Even the best traders have losing trades, but they know their edge and understand, if they follow their trade plan and if same scenario is repeated numerous time it will give them a positive outcome over a longer period.

So instead of asking someone else opinion, a trader need to ask himself/herself the ultimate question viz. If I take this trade 50 or 100 times will it give me a positive outcome in the long run. Once you start thinking in probabilities, it will change your perspective and eventually you will see positive progress in your trading.

You could read the complete article here: http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Path-To-Success-Part&action=read&id=1165
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