Fundamental View
The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its minutes from the early March policy meeting on Monday. On March 4 the RBA held the Australian rate steady at 2.5%. This week's minutes are expected to return to the AUD overvalued narrative as more exporters are pressuring the central bank after the currency continues to trade over 0.90. Traders are curious to to hear comments on Australian employment front. Housing and exports are recovering, but unemployment continues to rise which might delay the RBA to follow in the footsteps of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and raise rates.
In the last minutes the RBA was puzzled as to the sudden rise in inflation in the last quarter of 2013 and changed its stance to neutral indicating a more stable economy. In regards to unemployment it labeled it a lagging indicator and given the overall recoveries in major economies does not worry the bank too much.
Technical View
I am expecting bullish reaction to meeting minutes, however later in the week price is expected to retest Daily supply zone @ 0.9180 - 0.9200 level where I am expecting sellers to come in taking price down to daily demand zone at 0.8850.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its minutes from the early March policy meeting on Monday. On March 4 the RBA held the Australian rate steady at 2.5%. This week's minutes are expected to return to the AUD overvalued narrative as more exporters are pressuring the central bank after the currency continues to trade over 0.90. Traders are curious to to hear comments on Australian employment front. Housing and exports are recovering, but unemployment continues to rise which might delay the RBA to follow in the footsteps of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and raise rates.
In the last minutes the RBA was puzzled as to the sudden rise in inflation in the last quarter of 2013 and changed its stance to neutral indicating a more stable economy. In regards to unemployment it labeled it a lagging indicator and given the overall recoveries in major economies does not worry the bank too much.
Technical View
I am expecting bullish reaction to meeting minutes, however later in the week price is expected to retest Daily supply zone @ 0.9180 - 0.9200 level where I am expecting sellers to come in taking price down to daily demand zone at 0.8850.
