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RBA Leave Rates Unchanged

Daytrader21 Posted 4 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Aussie #Rba #Interest Rates #Hawkish #Verbal Intervention
Indeed RBA leave the interest rates unchanged which are already at historic low point, this is no surprise as that is the reason why they have been talking down the aussie and making a lot of verbal interventions.
Remember that last year RBA's Stevens said that Australia needs AUD/USD closer to an 0.8500 exchange rate. Basically this was an aggressive verbal intervention from RBA governor who said that lower aussie is preferable to rates to help the economy.
The only reason why he wants lower…
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5 Comments
Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 4 Feb.

I see your point even more now that I've read your article. I think at the next RBA meeting if the AUD/USD is above 0.9000 they will do whatever they can to talk the currency down. Similar to the Dec meeting. Your article has made me shift the time frame I had in mind, thanks.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 4 Feb.

@Jignesh Clarifying your time frame when speaking about a trade it's always good:), otherwise both of us can be on opposite trade and both of us can make money. At this point I don't know how low it will get (for the long term trade) but I do think that after the next big down leg we may see in the next years aussie going up.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 4 Feb.

I was initially thinking we may hit 0.9100 this week which could be an area to watch. Now I'm thinking looking for a short position closer to the next RBA meeting, maybe 3 weeks. But again, it all depends on the price action. I do think a lot of buyers will be coming in at 0.8500 and profit taking - I believe that is the area you are referring to when you say the next big down leg

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 4 Feb.

0.8500 is definitely a big psychological level and RBA's governor target as well, but more recently another RBA member has suggested that an even lower exchange rate would be need and closer to 0.8000. But again this is just RBA rhetoric and in today's dynamic world, market policy can change very fast as they have to adjust to current market conditions. I look at it like a puzzle where each day you add another piece and drop out the older one. it's very fascinating game:)

HOANG_MAI_NHI avatar
HOANG_MAI_NHI 7 Feb.

very good

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2014 FX Market Outlook - AUD (part 2)

Daytrader21 Posted 2 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Rba #Interest Rates #Fed #Elliott Wave #Taper #Imf #Verbal Intervention
This is my second blog post in an attempt to give you my brief FX Market Outlook for this year. In my first post I've been talking about my YEN outlook, you can check it here For now we're going to stop and talk about Aussie and what is the market expectation for this year.
After RBA cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low in an attempt to stimulating borrowing thus the overall economy, aussie dollar was on pressure and has kept pressing lower for the most part of the last year. A…
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RBA Wants Aussie at 0.8500

Daytrader21 Posted 13 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Verbal Intervention #Governor Stevens #Exchange Rates
Yesterday if you where trading or at least watching AUD pairs, was a pretty intense day. Aussie plunged 95 pips in just 4 minutes after some comments from RBA governor Stevens hit the market. RBA's Stevens said that Australia needs AUD/USD closer to an 0.8500 exchange rate. Basically this was an aggressive verbal intervention from RBA governor who said that lower aussie is preferable to rates to help the economy.
The only reason why he wants lower aussie is so he doesn't need to lower rates agai…
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jezz avatar
jezz 13 Dec.

Aussie usually ends the week at the same point it was... maybe you'll cut your losses

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