U.S. dollar continues to be sold for the second day after U.S. labour market report on Friday, the main beneficiary today being the Australian dollar. China does not want to escalate trade wars just yet and that's another supportive factor. AUD/USD is nearing 0.75 level (also 50 DMA) where some resistance is likely.
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EUR/USD closes the week at 50 DMA
U.S. labour market report for June came in fairly solid. NFPs surprised to the upside while uptick in unemployment rate was due to increased labour force participation. Market however took the cue from the marginal miss in average hourly earnings and sold the dollar. Euro was the greatest beneficiary with EUR/USD spiking 50 pips above 1.1715 resistance and closing the week right at 50 DMA.
USD/JPY quietly preparing for the next leg
USD/JPY has been trading in a relatively quiet (~90 pips) range this week - a new trend leg in the making. Main event risks are FOMC Minutes later today, U.S./China tariff exchange tomorrow morning and then U.S. labour market report in the afternoon. 100 - 100.25 (includes 200 DMA) is the support and 111 - 111.25 the resistance.
USD/JPY snaps back towards the big figure
The latest U.S. labour market report came in strong on most metrics. Yet the dollar failed to make any significant headway in the hours after the release. Friday's weakest currency was the yen, which weakened in early hours that day, despite BOJ slowly moving away from its bond buys. USD/JPY snapped back towards 110, retracing 50% of the recent downswing.
U.S. labour market strong, stock market tanks
U.S. labour market report for January came in strong with payrolls at 200K and wages up 2.9% y/y. A bigger story is sell-off in stocks. This year's price action increasingly looks like a blow-off top. After nine years of bull, is 2018 the year when permabears will finally be able to say "we told you so"?
EUR/USD looks poised for a break higher
EUR/USD is testing 2017 high (1.2090). A successful break would target 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2017 decline (1.2170), and then 2008 low (1.2330). U.S. jobs and wages report tomorrow could provide fuel for a larger move.
USD/JPY proves resilient once again
U.S. jobs & wages report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave U.S. dollar bulls some hope that this time was different.
It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. USD/JPY is ending the day and the week near highs and above 110.
It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. USD/JPY is ending the day and the week near highs and above 110.
Slow start to the week
Major currencies mostly remained in Friday's ranges which were a result of a much better than expected U.S. jobs and wages report. The least action was in the euro while the yen and the antipodean dollars performed better.
Today's markets were reminiscent of subdued summer trading but, as we have seen multiple times in recent months, they never lasted more than a couple of days. I think we won't need to wait until Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium to get the next big move.
Today's markets were reminiscent of subdued summer trading but, as we have seen multiple times in recent months, they never lasted more than a couple of days. I think we won't need to wait until Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium to get the next big move.
Kiwi holding above 0.70
Kiwi has been holding above 0.70 since early June. Even Brexit sell-off wasn't able to crack the big level. Yesterday morning, RBNZ implied that they are on hold with rates at least until housing market related macroprudential measures will be implemented.
Unless we get an exceptionally strong U.S. jobs report tomorrow, the pair will likely close above the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline for the second week in a row. Area between 50.0% retracement (0.7460) and 0.75 is the next targe…
Unless we get an exceptionally strong U.S. jobs report tomorrow, the pair will likely close above the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline for the second week in a row. Area between 50.0% retracement (0.7460) and 0.75 is the next targe…
Sideways start to the week
Currencies started the week sideways, which is not entirely surprising with a very light calendar on Monday and Tuesday plus New Zealand and China on holidays.
There was some USD and JPY buying right at the open but the moves were reversed promptly, producing little follow through so far after the solid U.S. jobs report on Friday.
There was some USD and JPY buying right at the open but the moves were reversed promptly, producing little follow through so far after the solid U.S. jobs report on Friday.