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The new start

megajorko Posted 1 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Non Farm Payroll #Tight Range
Hello traders,
Today is the new start of all the exciting tournaments and it is good that it is Saturday and we can make better planning on the upcoming events. As we were warned on Monday will be German Bank Holiday so the liquidity will be low and German stocks and index will be closed. The main thing to be aware is the end of the week event - Non farm payroll. What will happen then is the big question. Most important is to be on the right side.
Have a nice weekend
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Cable holding up well

al_dcdemo Updated 30 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Tight Range #50 Dma #200 Dma #H1 Chart #Weekend Gap #Turmoil
With the turmoil going on in the financial markets in the recent days, Cable has been one of the currency pairs that remained relatively unaffected. Weekend gap lower was just 40 pips and most of it was closed in an hour or so after the opening, with the rest shortly after the start of the European session.
The pair is trading in relatively tight range between 1.5675 and 1.5775. Should it continue higher it may have hard time to get past the strong resistance in 1.5875 - 1.5925 band. On the down…
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EURo trading tight

al_dcdemo Posted 15 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Fomc #Greece #Tight Range #50 Dma #100 Dma #Trendline Resistance
Despite failure of the weekend Greece-creditors talks, Euro remains well supported in the dips and is currently trading in a tight range between 1.1200 and 1.1250. Where it will go from here it will depend mostly on headlines, but I suspect it won't break into either direction before FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Stronger support is seen near 1.1050 (June 5th low, 50 and 100 DMA), while the weekly trendline resistance shall be found between 1.12 and 1.13.
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al_dcdemo 16 June

Weekly trendline resistance shall be found between 1.13 and 1.14 (not 1.12 and 1.13).

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EUR/USD seems locked in tight range

rokasltu Posted 21 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.2576, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Tight Range #Locked
As end of the year approaches and different developments in FX rates might occur it is quite difficult to predict exchange rates. But presently EUR/USD sits in quite tight range and it might be a case that this range will remain till end of the year. In weekly EUR/USD chart we can see that EUR/USD movements are quite limited at the moment.
It also could be mentioned that bollinger bands on weekly chart are quite wide but movements are still very limited.
For more precise determination of possibl…
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4 Comments
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rokasltu 27 Nov.

5 weeks till contest end - rate failed to break below 1.2350 thus theory of new temporary tight range forming seems to be feasible at the moment

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rokasltu 3 Dec.

4 weeks till contest end - tight range is under assault presently. Rate moves towards 1.22 - 1.23 area.  But in my opinion this area might provide good support and EUR will rebound.

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rokasltu 10 Dec.

3 weeks till contest end - as was predicted one week before EUR/USD find support in 1.22 - 1.23 area and now is above 1.24. I think there is still room for further upside till the end of this year.

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rokasltu 19 Dec.

2 weeks till contest end - 1.25 level is still difficult to reached there was another try but it failed and rate presently is at lows. But I think there is still potential for upside.

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End of week

megajorko Posted 24 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Tight Range
Hello all,
I am very surprised to see my first live follower. Unfortunately I am not sure which trade was copied so I just hope that it is the positive trade not the red trade which was the GBPJPY and again was missed the profit for just several pips. The week was very strange and with only small relative movements up and down. I was expecting yesterday to be a volatile day but it wasn't. Today is last day of the week but we have 1 week left for this month so there will not be much surprises and…
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USD/PLN escape from tight range likely

rokasltu Posted 21 June as Analysis on USD/PLN, Target: 3.1488, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Escape #Tight Range #USD/PLN
If we analyze USD/PLN weekly chart we can notice that rate is in tight range for some time. But this range is quite tight and it is likely that it will be broken in either side. Actually taking into account economic situation in EZ and the fact that PLN rates were significantly decreased several times but it didn't substantially reflected on exchange rate it is likely that rate will rocket higher in the nearest month. For more precise definition of possible rate movements daily USD/PLN chart was…
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5 Comments
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rokasltu 4 July

4 week till contest end - rate presently is around 3.05. As predicted nearest several weeks rate might fluctuate in tight range and after that will be some spike higher.

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rokasltu 10 July

3 week till contest end - still rate is quite stable around 3.04. Some time is needed for rate going up but I still think this will happen during coming weeks.

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rokasltu 17 July

2 weeks till contest end - it seems that climbing up started but in very small steps. presently rate is at around 3.06. I expect that upside will intensify in coming weeks

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rokasltu 25 July

1 week till contest end - rate continuously climbs up now at around 3.0850. There is one week left for sharper spike but at the moment predicted rate - 3.15 seems quite reachable.

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rokasltu 30 July

1 day till contest end - as expected USD/PLN spike is somewhere here just need for some more kick. Today rate was as high as 3.11 now retreated to 3.10 but as important data still to be announced rate have good potential for upside.

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EUR/JPY slight down expected

rokasltu Posted 21 June as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 137.6200, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/JPY #Tight Range #Slight Down
If we analyze EUR/JPY performance we can notice that pair has periods during whose it movement is not so big. It seems that pair is in such period now and struggles to go downwards.
In any case downside is more likely due current ECB policy but taking into account BoJ policy it is doubtful that such downside will be substantial. Thus I think rate will reside in tight range for coming weeks and at 1st of April will be around 137.50 level. Possible rate developments are depicted in daily EUR/JPY c…
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rokasltu 10 July

3 weeks till contest end - rate just now is 137.63 so exactly at forecasted level. It is still plenty of time but as fluctuations in this pair presently is not so big it is possible that during coming weeks rate will fluctuate around current level.

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rokasltu 17 July

2 weeks till contest end - rate is at 137.31 some pips below target. Rate seems to be fluctuating there and possibly will remain somewhere not far from here in coming weeks.

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rokasltu 25 July

1 week till contest end - rate now is under 137 and downside seems more likely than upside due to present EUR weakness. But is JPY weakness will intensify rate could go up also.

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rokasltu 30 July

1 day till contest end - rate seems to be consolidating around 137.50 - 138.00 area. Thus as predicted value falls into this area it seems that prediction might be quite correct.

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rokasltu 1 Aug.

Contest end - rate was inside consolidation area but in the upper side - 137.96. Thus prediction accuracy is not bad - 0.25% - but not perfect. In nay case rate performed as predicted and described in comments and this is encouraging to make further analysis.

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GBP/JPY inside tight range

rokasltu Posted 21 June as Analysis on GBP/JPY, Target: 172.0800, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/JPY #Tight Range #Prolonged Period
If we analyze GBP/JPY weekly chart we can notice that between sharp movements up and down there are also prolonged periods and during it rate is struck in tight range. Presently rate also seems to be in such a period. Furthermore presently rate is on highs last seen more than 5 years ago and this will also prevent rate from quick moves upwards. Downside also might be limited for some time as JPY presently is on weakening path.
For more exact rate determination daily GBP/JPY chart was used. It is…
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rokasltu 4 July

4 weeks till contest end - GBP strengthening lifted GBP/JPY rate to 175 and higher. But it is possible that sharp GBP retreat could occur during several weeks so if this will happen approaching to predicted levels is very possible at the moment.

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rokasltu 10 July

3 weeks till contest end - rate now is around 173 so 100 pips higher than predicted value. But it seems that pair is under pressure and downside seems more likely than upside.

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rokasltu 17 July

2 weeks till contest end - rate is slightly below 174 now. It went away from predicted rate but upside seems to be struggling thus I still think it will approach predicted levels in coming weeks.

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rokasltu 25 July

1 week till contest end - rate now is at 172.77 and downside seems more likely than upside. Thus it looks quite possible that at the settlement rate will be near 172.

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rokasltu 30 July

1 day till contest end - rate spiked away from prediction and only some surprise NFP data in my opinion could return rate back to predicted levels.

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EUR/SEK inside tight range

rokasltu Posted 26 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 8.7200, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/SEK #Tight Range
From the beginning of this year EUR/SEK rate fluctuated inside relatively tight interval. If not taking into account few days spike and few weeks residing around the lows it could be noticed that pair most time from the beginning of the year resided within interval from ~8.52 till ~8.78. This could be seen form daily EUR/SEK chart presented below.
In my opinion there is no reasons for EUR/SEK to escape from mentioned interval during October. For determination more exact rate it could be noticed …
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rokasltu 11 Oct.

3 weeks till contest end - rate holds around 8.77 not far from predicted value but not far from mentioned upper range also; I think coming few days will be decisive if rate will reside within tight range or spike higher

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rokasltu 21 Oct.

10 days till contest end - rate again is around 8.77 failing to move higher; it is not very far from predicted value - 8.72 I think there is potential for such downside during coming days.

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rokasltu 30 Oct.

24 hours till contest end - after visiting 8.72 area few days ago rate is around 8.77 again. 8.77 - 8.78 seems to be quite strong resistance and I think it will not be broken during coming days so I expect that rate will come closer to predicted 8.72 value and will be around 8.73 - 8.75 at the contest end.

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rokasltu 30 Oct.

sorry 48 hours till conetest end...

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kudryaviy 27 Nov.

Informative.

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