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Aussie rallies on RBA rate statement

al_dcdemo Updated 4 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rba #Stevens #H1 Chart
As was widely expected, RBA stood pat at today's meeting. But they surprised the market by softening language on the Australian dollar, which may imply that they are generally satisfied with their currency around these levels, save for any rout in commodities. Together with Steven's comments last week about new (lower) normal growth rate, Aussie bears have now lost two big reasons to sell the pair.
Aussie rallied in response, surging to almost 0.74, which is now the initial resistance before 0.7…
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AUD/USD to gain in the near-term

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8142, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Breakout #Stevens #Gains #Bounce #Decline #Failed Break
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. In the following three months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7925 range, but broke higher (to 0.8075) in the end of April. The breakout appears to be fake as the pair returned back to the range.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level touted by RBA g…
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al_dcdemo 3 May

UPDATE 2: Week ahead will be big for the pair. We have Building Approvals m/m on Monday, Trade Balance and RBA meeting on Tuesday, Retail Sales m/m on Wednesday, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate on Thursday, RBA Monetary Policy Statement on Friday. Along with the data from US: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday and Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday. 20 and 50 day SMA should offer decent support, while 0.8050 - 0.8075 would be the first stronger resistance level.

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al_dcdemo 10 May

UPDATE 3: As widely expected, RBA finally cut Cash Rate to 2.00% from 2.25%. With the cut obviously had being fully priced in, the pair recovered from a knee-jerk lower in matter of minutes. The short squeeze continued until Wednesday afternoon, and the pair spent the rest of the week backing and filling. There was some action on Friday on the release of NFP, but the pair was essentially flat on that day. It closed the week just above previous (three-month) range resistance in 0.7910 - 0.7940 band.

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al_dcdemo 11 May

UPDATE 4: The data from Australia in the week ahead are not of particular note. NAB Business Confidence on Monday and Annual Budget Release on Tuesday may provide some volatility. while Chinese Industrial Production and US data, (Core) Retail Sales, PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, will likely offer more. The pair is supported by 20 and 100 DMA with 50 DMA coming in a cent lower. Resistance is seen in 0.8050 - 0.8075 band.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 5: After lacklustre price action on Monday, Aussie broke higher on Tuesday and followed through strongly on Wednesday at which point it looked like the pair is about to become the star performer of the week. The pullback that ensued on Thursday and Friday prevented that, but the technical picture is still bullish with the first weekly close above 0.80 level since early January.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 6: There's not a lot on the calendar from Australia next week: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and few other lower-tier releases. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI from China may provide some volatility, but the main events will be FOMC Meeting Minutes and inflation report from the United States. If the uptrend is to continue, any deeper pullback should not extend below 0.7950. Initial resistance is now established just above 0.8150.

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The pairs mostly remain in ranges

al_dcdemo Posted 20 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Stevens #Dma
USD is showing some strength across the board today.
Aussie appears to be the heaviest of major pairs, with RBA governor Stevens' comments not helping it. The pair will likely remain in recent range until RBA meeting on May 5. 50 DMA is now running right through the middle of this range while 100 DMA is nearing from above.
Technically, the most likely direction is down, but if RBA fails to deliver in May, that may well be preceded by a deeper pullback.
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AUD/USD downtrend not over yet

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7469, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Stevens #Range #Weakness #Pullback #Easing Bias #Decline
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. In the following two months it traded in 0.7550 - 0.7925 range, but it finished March trading below 200 month SMA. Further down, some demand should come in at 0.75 (level touted by RBA governor Stevens), then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and 0.70 big figure le…
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: This week was a complete opposite of the last week, as Aussie was the strongest of the major currencies. It was RBA and their decision to stay on hold that was keeping the pair underpinned. It didn't, however, manage to make any significant gains, as it remained in the lower half of the recent 0.7550 - 0.7590 range. It ended the week 30 odd pips higher, but that's quite an achievement compared to other major pairs, which moved 100 - 400 pips to the USD side.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: Near-term direction will depend on the economic data from US and China, which will be coming throughout all week, and Aussie jobs report to be released on Thursday. Until then the risk is on the upside, unless the data from the States improves and/or Chinese disappoint. Range support extends from 0.7500 to 0.7550, while resistance is seen in 0.7900 - 0.7950 band. I expect the pair to remain contained between these two extremes at least until May RBA meeting.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: After two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Following unconvincing price action but with two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Australian CPI report will be released on Wednesday and both headline CPI q/q and RBA's favorite Trimmed Mean CPI q/q are expected to come out lower. Any positive surprises could see the pair breaking above 100 DMA and testing range top near 0.7925. Otherwise most likely scenario is for the pair to remain in its recent 3-month range, as many market participants and indeed OIS are still projecting rate cut in May.

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AUD/USD to fall some more

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7527, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Consolidation #Stevens #Weakness #Pullback #Easing Bias
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 0.50% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. The pair finished January trading right on 200 month SMA and has been since consolidating around it. If the average breaks, there should be some demand at 0.75 (level also touted by RBA governor Stevens), then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and then 0.70 big fig…
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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: It was similar story as in other major pairs, just that declines were not as big as in European currencies. In addition, Thursday's pullback proved to be quite substantial (in relative terms) and the pair managed to preserve more gains. Technical picture is still bearish, but the downtrend appears to be losing momentum. If RBA doesn't cut on one of its next meetings and the data from Australia improve, pullback to 0.8000 - 0.8250 is not excluded.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: After range-bound start to the week, the volatility exceeded all expectations on Wednesday, after Fed revealed that they are in no hurry to hike rates. The pair surged almost 200 pips in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting, but then came back all the way to the weekly lows before continuing higher on Friday. It closed the week just below 50 DMA and this will be the first resistance to overcome, if the pair wants to maintain bullish bias.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: What looked like a potential break higher in the beginning of the week as the pair briefly traded above February 26 high and came into vicinity of 100 DMA, turned sour, when it reversed in landslide fashion afterwards, with the pair closing the week below 50 DMA. 20 DMA is now the immediate support, before cycle low at 0.7560 and 0.75 level.

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foreignexchange 1 Apr.

Congratulation

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al_dcdemo 1 Apr.

Thanks! I'd like it to fall a bit further in the next two hours. :)

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Fx daily musings (Nov. 7th 2013)

Boogs_7702 Posted 7 Nov.  in #AUD #EUR #JPY #NZD #Yen #Unemployment #Wheeler #Stevens #Fed
It seems traders were just waiting for the slightet bad news to rip into Aud and the employment data wasn't good. Nzd got pulled with it but has already taken back some of the losses.
Nzd is very strong (so says Graem Wheeler as well not too long ago who is the head of RBNZ and incidentally has said he doesn't see room for intervention as of yet. Hint! Hint! Hint! So he must not be as worried as Stevens who has been quite a bit more communicative and verbal about the Aud's current rate. This lac…
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Bank of Australia's Gov. Stevens

Boogs_7702 Posted 6 Nov.  in #AUD #Rba #Stevens
So here is an article on Oct. 29th explaining how Stevens said that Aud was already unusually high. I am assuming Aud has reached the unusual height again at .9540. I cannot see it going any further. The RBA will put some serious road blocks if it does. Even if the employment data comes out well, Aud is destined to go lower (this all of course if the RBA is being honest and I think why not).
Mr Stevens also had words of caution for foreign exchange investors, saying the recent rise in the Austra…
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RBA rate decision

Boogs_7702 Posted 4 Nov.  in #AUD #USD #Rate Decision #Rba #Stevens #Glenn
If Bank Governor Stevens really wants the Aud to be weaker, he is going to have to surprise us all and reduce the cash rate. It's as simple as that. If they don't reduce the cash rate, then all this talk from the RBA and RBNZ for that matter is just talk and they don't really care. Why? Because if they stick to their cash rate, Aud will surely reach .9750 in a hurry again, no problem. And according to Stevens this rate was not even explainable. So tonight is actually really big for the Fx market…
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jezz 4 Nov.

I think it's enough for this year's cuts

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Boogs_7702 4 Nov.

We will see but I say again, if they really do want the exchange rate lower, this is really the only solution right now. The Fed din't taper as expected and this could really make the RBA rethink what they need to do. Let's not forget that more cuts were already foreseen for this year so it wouldn't really be too many.

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jezz 4 Nov.

Ok. Bloomberg predicted aud/usd at 0.80 when it was 1.05. It didn't seem real back then, now it is possible. Rate cuts + gold price have helped a lot, so it is plausable

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