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Foreign Exchange Correlations

QEXPERTcom Updated 5 Oct.  in #Forex Trading #Statistics
Defining Correlation in Finance

Correlation in finance is the statistical measure of the degree to which two securities are related to its other. This relationship is measured during a certain time period.

Correlations are expressed on a scale of -1.0 to +1.0, as follows:
  • +1.0, two assets move in an identical direction, 100% of all times
  • +0.0, two assets move in random directions
…
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VictoriaVika 3 Nov.

Great analysis

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How to turn $1k into $7M

Daytrader21 Updated 2 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Trading #Statistics #National Australia Bank #Inside Trading #Australian Bureau Of Statistics
When it comes to trading everyone dreams of becoming the next multi-millionaire guy. However statistics says that there are only a handful of people who achieve superior returns in this business. When you lack skills in the game, greed can push some peoples do illegal stuffs in order to achieve your goals. Today's story is about a former National Australia Bank foreign exchange trader who managed to turn $1k into $7M in less than 1 year.
You may think this guy may have some extra talent and have…
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Technical view of EURUSD

Airmike Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0918, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Statistics #Quantitative Analysis #Technical Forecast
Trend – Pair is actually in bearish trend .
Range indicator and volatility – Pair has high volatility with average range 121 points.
High-Low indicator – Pair is in bearish trend past 6 months with extremes 1300 points in last 12 months.
Strength of the currencies – First currency was weaker than second last week.
Conclusion – First currency will be a bit stronger as second.
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Airmike 25 Apr.

Update - funny situation. EURUSD is rising. just 48 points far from my target. This Fail turn back to top analysis in this month. I made very nice profit of 1450 USD on my live account. position is closed but I still believe in continuation of long trend.

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Airmike 27 Apr.

Update - Unbelievable move but bad result for me. I went long today's morning and I cut my huge position on SL. I decided to risk on this trade 1000 USD and I end up on SL. I wish I was more patient. Market is on my target right now. distance from my estimated level is just 13 points.

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Airmike 28 Apr.

Update - EURUSD is in small correction but main trend is clear. actual market rate is 1,0886. my target 1,0918. distance 32 points so far.

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Airmike 28 Apr.

Update - pair is back in long side. actual distance from my target is 10 pips

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Airmike 28 Apr.

Update - this is too much :). i didn't expect that huge move. actual EURUSD rate is 56 points above my estimated level. I guess market is ready for small correction 1.1 is heavy resistance and I hope for  slow market with small range. pullback and small retracement is very welcome .

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Technical view of EURNZD

Airmike Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/NZD, Target: 1.4453, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Statistics #Quantitative Analysis #EUR/NZD #Technical Forecast
Trend – Pair is actually in bearish trend .
Range indicator and volatility – Pair has high volatility with average range 168 points.
High-Low indicator – Pair is in side way past 15 months with extremes 1200 points in last 12 months.
Strength of the currencies – First currency was weaker than second last week.
Conclusion – First currency will be a bit stronger than second.
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Airmike 24 Apr.

Update - unbelievable run. target is just 70 points from cross rate. and  370 points in two days. fantastic.

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Airmike 25 Apr.

Update. small correction on EURNZD is on the plan. but I believe that price will finished  very close to my estimated level. Right now is distance just 160 pips.

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Airmike 27 Apr.

Update - I think we will see small resistance with high spike up because of NZD. I am looking forward to see price at the end of this week.

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Airmike 28 Apr.

Update - Actual market rate is 190 points far from my target but I think is only question of time . spike up was huge and now is pair ion consolidation phase. after then i expect another spike up

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Airmike 29 Apr.

Update - beautiful spike up . gap has been filled. actual distance from my target price is just 10 points. what a surprise. isn't it ?

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Technical view of EURJPY

Airmike Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 126.6400, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/JPY #Statistics #Quantitative Analysis #Technical Forecast
Trend – Pair is actually in bullish trend.
Range indicator and volatility – Pair has volatility with average range 168 points.
High-Low indicator – Pair is in side way trend past 3 months with extremes of 1800 points in last 12 months.
Strength of the currencies – First currency was weaker than second last week.
Conclusion – First currency will be weaker as second.
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Airmike 14 Apr.

Update - This is one of the best analysis in this round so far. EURJPY is in bearish trend and outlook is still bearish. market is just 30 points above my estimated level. we will see at the end.

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Airmike 16 Apr.

Update - EURJPY is close enough to make me happy at the end of the month. :) actual distance between actual market rate and my estimation is 45 points. we can see small range last few days.

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Technical view of EURGBP

Airmike Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.7321, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/GBP #Statistics #Quantitative Analysis #Technical Forecast
Trend – Pair is actually in bearish trend .
Range indicator and volatility – Pair has low volatility with average range 66 points.
High-Low indicator – Pair is in bearish trend past 7 months with extremes 500 points in last 12 months.
Strength of the currencies – First currency was weaker than second last week.
Conclusion – First currency will be a bit stronger as second.
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Airmike 14 Apr.

Update -EURGBP is 100 points above my estimated level so far. 17 days to deadline

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Airmike 30 Apr.

Update - Almost impossible. 180 pips in one day. EURGBP is 35 points below my estimated price. This is really unexpected event one day before deadline. what can I say. I will watch on this analysis more carefully.

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Airmike 30 Apr.

Update - This huge unexpected move is very positive for my analysis. We all know that EURGBP is not a best candidate for massive move about hundred of pips but this is exactly what  happened. o lets analyze this game changing move. Today's move was 110 points. Actual market price is 0,7310. my estimated target is 0,7321. Accuracy deviation is 0,15% so far. this is solid result but most important thing is deadline . see you tomorrow.

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Technical view of EURCAD

Airmike Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/CAD, Target: 1.3758, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/CAD #Statistics #Quantitative Analysis #Technical Forecast
Trend – Pair is actually in bearish trend .Range indicator and volatility – Pair has low volatility with average range 160 points.High-Low indicator – Pair is in bearish trend past 4 months with extremes 800 points in last 12 months.Strength of the currencies – First currency was stronger than second last week. Conclusion – First currency will be stronger as second.
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Airmike 14 Apr.

too much pain I feel. Yoda :)

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Airmike 30 Apr.

Update - Mr Yoda is back. this is unbelievable. 400 pips in long side past two days. 180 pips front of us :). (distance to my target)

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Technical view of EURAUD

Airmike Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/AUD, Target: 1.4032, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/AUD #Statistics #Quantitative Analysis #Technical Forecast
Trend – Pair is actually in bearish trend .
Range indicator and volatility – Pair has high volatility with average range 176 points.
High-Low indicator – Pair is in bearish trend past 7 months with extremes 1200 points in last 12 months.
Strength of the currencies – First currency was a bit stronger than second last week.
Conclusion – First currency will be weaker as second.
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Airmike 23 Apr.

Update - my estimated level is 140 points far from actual market price

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Airmike 23 Apr.

Update - same story as on EURNZD. huge bullish candle and I am front of my target price. 100 points distance is realistic target to hit. I may think that target is too close and my expectation is that price will finished above my estimated level.

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Airmike 24 Apr.

Update - I was right yesterday when I said that target is close . I am just 70 points far from my estimation. I am looking forward.

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Airmike 25 Apr.

Update - I think that we may see nice come back to my estimated level. Analysis is not on the top jet but 150 pips is not a big deal . even if we talk about pair with high volatility

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Airmike 30 Apr.

Update - EURAUD is attacking my target price. distance between market and my estimated level is 35 points

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Technical view of CHFJPY

Airmike Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on CHF/JPY, Target: 120.0600, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF/JPY #Statistics #Quantitative Analysis #Technical Forecast
Trend – Pair is actually in bullish trend .
Range indicator and volatility – Pair has volatility with average range 218 points.
High-Low indicator – Pair is in bullish trend past 24 months with extremes 2800 points in last 12 months.
Strength of the currencies – First currency was stronger than second last week.
Conclusion – First currency will be weaker as second.
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Airmike 14 Apr.

Update - 270 points above my estimation.

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Technical view of CADJPY

Airmike Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on CAD/JPY, Target: 93.1800, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Statistics #Quantitative Analysis #CAD/JPY #Technical Forecast
Trend – Pair is actually in bearish trend .
Range indicator and volatility – Pair has volatility with average range 137 points.
High-Low indicator – Pair is in bullish trend past 8 months with extremes 1200 points in last 12 months.
Strength of the currencies – First currency was weaker than second last week.
Conclusion – First currency will be a bit weaker as second.
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