Community Blog

Filtrar por etiquetas:  Rate Hikes
Avatar

U.S. dollar struggles despite some bullish developments

Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original
oDejar comentarios
Avatar

USD/JPY - USD DATA Weeker, no rate hike, Support broken

I will continue work on USD/JPY analysis. As You can see on the chart I would like to reinforce downtrend. Last fundamentals convinced me to keep estimation of keeping current trend, As a strong resistance I see EMA 100 on daily chart as shown below. we can reach once to this level before December dropping later and braking support ad ending on 98,99level.
The 2nd chart will represent the pitchwork will create the channel of this pair through november
Thanks
Have a Great Contest
Good Luck to All
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original
oDejar comentarios
Avatar

FOMC meeting minutes didn't impress

FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes.
Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original
Nihad avatar
Nihad 18 Feb

al_dcdemo and since when it did? :)

al_dcdemo avatar

Nihad It's essentially an old data that rarely offers anything new. But I did thought there would be a bigger reaction to it this time around.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 19 Feb

am kidding man, it's not just old data, their model is extra-lagging, let me give you quote by Kevin Warsh, a former FED governor in Friday 5, 2016: "The FED may have well missed the business cycle entirely. The financial cycle seems to have turned as well. The economy has chronically underperformed what they predicted"

al_dcdemo avatar

You're right, I read about that underperformance also. But this is issue with other CBs too - why not just set goals that are achievable? I'm not an economist but could it be that all this is just an excuse to print more money? :) These economic events and figures - true, false, fake, whatever - do however provide opportunity, be it intraday or longer term. But any trading decisions should be done based on hard evidence - starting with price action.

oDejar comentarios
Avatar

USD/JPY technicals muddy

Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns in regard to global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August, the pair broke back below the monthly resistanc…
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original
fxsurprise8 avatar

now at 17 pips away, nice!

al_dcdemo avatar

Thanks! It looks good at the moment. :)

foreignexchange avatar

Great : )

al_dcdemo avatar

Thanks :)

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 10: Attempt to break to the upside of the aforementioned pattern failed but the pair didn't decline past the pattern's bottom either. Volatility continues to fall as this week's range is even smaller and basically less than 100 pips. I'm very happy with the outcome because uncertainty after August 24th market rout made the whole thing difficult to predict.

oDejar comentarios
Avatar

USD/JPY uptrend intact

Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After the pullback in June, the pair appears poised to close above there again. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December…
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original
al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 4: With the BOJ on the sidelines and giving no indications of any imminent further easing, the main driver will remain US economy and expectations of Fed tightening later in the year. US data is likely to continue to come out solid and that should be enough to keep the pair bid. 124.00 - 124.50 is the initial support before 123.50 and then 123.00. 125 is now the main obstacle on the upside ahead of the cycle-high at 125.85.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 5: Weekly range in the pair was again the smallest among seven majors. This is the fourth week in which the range didn't exceed 160 pips. Previous strong 124.400 resistance now became a pivot, around which most price action unfolded. The most notable day was Wednesday, in which the pair sold off almost a cent and a half, after PBOC weakened yuan fix for the second consecutive day.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 6: Week ahead will be important in terms of Japanese macroeconomic data/events. Preliminary GDP for Q2 will come out on Monday and BOJ will release Monetary Policy Statement and hold Press Conference on Thursday. Support is seen at 123.80, before 123.50 (50 DMA) and 123.00. Initial resistance shall come in above 124.50 but the stronger one may be found between 125 and 125.30.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 7: Weekly range in the pair was the largest since March 2011. The whole range was defined on Monday after the pair sold off strongly amid a bout of risk-off due to several concerns: China, global growth, Fed tightening and oil prices. Low was put in close to 116 level and the pair regained most of the losses by the end of the week. Big hammer is forming on the weekly chart, but that may not be significant in the current range-bound context.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 8: Apart from maybe Average Cash Earnings on Friday, there's nothing market moving from Japan on the calendar for the week ahead. US will release its monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports, but the main focus will remain on the global stock markets. Initial support is seen around 120.50 and then near 120.00. On the upside, 122.00 - 122.50 band looks like a decent resistance.

oDejar comentarios
Avatar

USD/JPY to remain supported

Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14) and closed the month of May above that, but retraced roughly half of the gains in June. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.16, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in D…
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original
WallStreet6 avatar

Another great long term forecast! Only 70 pips away, although my prognosis for the rest of the week is rather bearish. Good Luck!

al_dcdemo avatar

Thanks! Yep, this one stands really well. :)

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 9: Yen remained in a tightish range against the Dollar in the past week. After a short excursion to the downside on Monday, the pair turned back higher and broke to the highest since June 10th on Thursday. It was, however, unable to hold above the strong resistance at 124.50 and turned back down. Weaker than expected Employment Cost Index then sent it tumbling on Friday, just as it was setting to retest the level again.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 10: Economic highlight of the week ahead will be the NFP report, alongside ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs. BOJ will also meet next week and they will release Monetary Policy Statement and hold Press Conference on Friday. Initial resistance is the strong 124.50 level but the offers may extend all the way to the 125 big figure level. Support shall be found at 50 DMA.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 11: The pair opened the week on a positive note and slowly traded up towards 124.50 level. Right into end of the forecast period, which happens to coincide with the US session open at this time of year, it was stalling ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (124.33). The closing price of the 11:59 GMT M1 bid candle was 124.266 and the open price of the 12:00 GMT M1 bid candle was 124.267. This is my best accuracy so far and I'm also pleased with the prediction itself as July's price action unfolded in line with my expectations.

oDejar comentarios
Avatar

2014 - Sohn Investment Conference


Yesterday was the 19th annual Sohn Investment Conference where hundreds of investors are gathering at the most awaited HF conference of the year. The only reason I'm mentioning this is because one of the most successful hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones spoke there, and give his macro view on the markets.
This conference has been a great place for sharing some trading ideas and a great platform for sharing new trading ideas as well, and most often this ideas where market movers. You have …
Lee el artículo completo
Traducir a inglés Mostrar original
mag avatar
mag 6 May

Very importante the SOHN COONFERENCE, investment in pediatric cancer

Daytrader21 avatar

mag Thanks for the link, up until now I wasn't aware about the fact that the conference is more than just about capital markets

oDejar comentarios