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EURAUD Back up against Daily 200SMA ahead of ECB

Jignesh Posted 5 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Fibonacci #Euraud #Moving Average
The EURAUD had a nice move to the downside after rejection of the 200SMA in the second week of October. This week we've seen a quick ramp up to close the day off once again the Moving Average.
The Daily EURAUD Chart above shows the upside resistance at the daily 200MA as well as the 76.4% Fib retracement of the last leg down. This area should offer some major resistance ahead of the ECB. This can be a very important inflection point for swing traders, as a hold here signals a big move to the dow…
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Bimlesh 6 Nov.

As usual, you are excellent at putting up the things, blending both technical and news...

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Jignesh 6 Nov.

Thank you my friend :)

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Playing the Channel on EURNZD

Jignesh Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/NZD, Target: 1.5806, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #NZD #Fibonacci #Channel #Downtrend #EUR/NZD #Candlesticks #Moving Average
Overview
The EURNZD is in a channel on the Daily chart. So far it has shown clear rejection from the upper channel line after briefly spiking to the weekly 200MA.
The pair is trending down after peaking in late August of 2013. After posting an engulfing candle against the daily channel, the expectation is for the downtrend to continue at this point.
Levels
1.6462 - Weekly 200 Moving Average
1.6340 - Daily Close Sept 28 (Close below trendline after spike)
1.5806 - Daily 61.8% retracement of …
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Jignesh 9 Oct.

The pair faced a rejection of the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down just prior to the FOMC minutes today.  It may be too early to tell, but so far the weekly candle stick pattern is shaping up to be in favour of a bigger leg to the downside

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Jignesh 13 Oct.

First level of resistance comes at 1.6192 which marks last week's open.  With the second level of resistance coming in at 1.6226 (weekly fib level).  A spike high this week is a certain possibility but the focus is on a lower weekly close, preferable taking out support at last week's low at 1.6030

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Jignesh 24 Oct.

While moving the targets, the pair made a rapid reversal on a slew of data both negative for the NZD and positive for the EUR.  1.6200 is upside resistance,  A close below 1.6140 (weekly trendline)  will be required to maintain downside pressure.

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Jignesh 27 Oct.

The reversal correction is starting to show that it has completed and the downtrend may have resumed.  The biggest risk event for the pair this week will be the RBNZ statement.  It is well known that the central bank wants to see the kiwi lower and will most likely attempt to jawbone the currency at the event on Wednesday. 

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Jignesh 31 Oct.

The FOMC and RBNZ on Wednesday played Havoc on the pair, but not only has it managed to retrace the gains within a short period of time, it has not broken to new lows taking out support at 1.6015. 
With the ATR of this pair, it has good potential to reach targets.  Event risk for the EUR coming shortly with CPI estimates expected to have high impact.

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EURUSD To find support at it's 200 Monthly MA

Jignesh Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.2410, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Eurusd #Support #Bearish #EUR/USD #Downtrend #Moving Average
Overview
The EURUSD has been on a steady decline as the monetary policies of the ECB & FED continue to diverge.
The pair has recently taken out a major support level, and looks to continue on it's path lower.
Levels
1.2800 - 61.8% Retracment on Daily and Weekly resistance level (Breached)
1.2410 - 127% Extension on Daily (1.2746 - 1.3993)
1.2207 - Monthly 200 Moving Average
Figure 1 - EURUSD Weekly - Showing the 61.8% and previous support as indicated by eclipse which has now been breached
Figu…
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Jignesh 24 Oct.

EURUSD has made another leg lower this week, however is catching support at the 61.8% retrace of the last leg up and 4H channel formation.  A break of this level will be critical to prevent a double correction to the upside.

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Jignesh 27 Oct.

The pressure to the downside just has not been there without any significant risk events, up until now.  This week there are two events that will have a high impact.  First the FOMC, and second a CPI reading from the Euro zone.  Both seem to favor a downside move for EURUSD, but breaking the 1.2500 support level may prove to be a challenge

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Jignesh 3 Nov.

The FOMC had a bullish impact on the USD sending the pair lower to retest 1.2500
To start the week off, the pair has already broken the 1.2500 support level early in the Asia session as the EURO Bears are in full effect.  At the time of writing, we are trading at 1.2560 with about 10 hours to go for another 50 pips to reach targets.

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Jignesh 4 Nov.

In the last comment, that should have read 1.2460 not 1.2560..  The pair did not manage to make another low, rather turned bullish since the last update.  The leg that broke 2500 was on low liquidity which may be the reason for the move.  Either way, the targets were not achieved, although I'm content with how close it came.

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Jignesh 4 Nov.

Looking at the Fib levels drawn in Figure 3, The tool was drawn using the absolute high.  If it were drawn to the bodies ignoring the absolutely peak (as it should have), it would have accurately predicted the very low, and the area where buyers stepped in.  (1.2440).  Not where it closed, but in review, I noticed the error.

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