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USD/CHF to recover in July

al_dcdemo Posted 20 June as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9825, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Flag Like Formation
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 15 July

UPDATE 5: It was a worst week for the U.S. dollar in a while. It started with the BOC decision on Wednesday after which Canadian dollar surged about 200 pips. The next day, Aussie and Kiwi played catch-up and rose about 100 pips respectively. Eagerly anticipated U.S. inflation and retail sales reports came in weaker than expected yesterday and exacerbated dollar losses across the board. Cable sliced through 1.30 to 1.3115, the highest in ten months. Euro had tough time holding above 1.14 but ended the week near the high, poised for a break higher. Exciting week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 July

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.145 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.745, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 24 July

UPDATE 7: A mixed start to the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic landscape. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist could come.

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al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 8: Yesterday's reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't reveal anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The single exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but probably not for too long.

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Swissie could snap back to parity level

al_dcdemo Posted 23 May as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9925, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Flag Like Formation
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 5: It was a mixed week for the U.S. dollar. The world's reserve currency finally got some traction against European currencies. Dovish ECB and U.K. voters, going against PM May's and indeed market expectations, contributed fundamental background for the technical weakness to play out. The dollar was flat against the yen and the Canadian dollar but it fell short compared to the Antipodean currencies. Next week brings four major central bank meetings, namely Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate corridor by further 25 basis points.

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al_dcdemo 14 June

UPDATE 6: Swiss franc is one of the best performing major currencies this year. Euro strength and U.S. dollar weakness are both supporting this. SNB meets tomorrow and no change is expected from them for at least as long as ECB keeps rates on the floor. USD/CHF encountered some demand ahead of 0.96 before pulling from the lows. If that goes, 0.95 area looks stronger and might be backed by SNB. 0.97 - 0.975 is the initial resistance. 0.98 - 0.985 is another one.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 7: Fed's FOMC was unexpectedly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as anticipated, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

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al_dcdemo 21 June

UPDATE 8: After trading to as low as 0.96 in the beginning of May, USD/CHF has been slowly but steadily recouping losses. At the last week's meeting, SNB reiterated their mantras that the Franc is overvalued and that they will continue with ultra-easy monetary policy. That shall keep the pair supported as long as EUR/USD is in correction mode. 0.98 - 0.9825 (March low, 2011 - 2016 trendline, 50 DMA) is the next target. 0.97 - 0.9725 is likely to see some stronger demand come in.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 9: The currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with the exception of Cable whose range exceeded 200 pips. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

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