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Keys to Trading Consolidations

DaddyPapi Updated 5 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Consolidation #Breakouts #Daily Chart #Candlestick Analysis #False Breakout #4 Hour Chart
There are 3 Main ways to trade Consolidation Patterns.
1. Trading Within Consolidation between Support and Resistance;
2. Trading Breakouts;
3. Trading False Breakout Reversals;
Each of these scenarios can be profitable, but the keys to being able to trade them successfully comes down to identifying the right Trading Signals.
If you Swing Trade the markets using the Daily and 4 Hour Charts without Indicators, then it means trying to identify the correct Candlestick Signals and Patterns on these …
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Not All Breakouts are Created Equal

DaddyPapi Updated 6 June  in #Trader's blog #Consolidation #Breakouts #Signals #Candlestick Analysis #False Breakout #Reversals #Candlestick Signals
Breakouts from Consolidation are the most common of setups that are traded in the Currency Market. These have been more dominant in recent years because of the extraordinary Monetary Policy stances of Central Banks as well as other factors that have led to low levels of liquidity. Breakouts can be fast and sharp, leading to trade targets being hit within minutes or a few days. However, as tempting as these are, there are many traps that have often caught traders with our pants down and left us w…
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Downside risks in the sight

marius24 Posted 28 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0787, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Descending Channel #Double Top #False Breakout
Currency Pair:Aud/Nzd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 1.0848
Trend: downtrend
Possible trading range: 1.0650-1.11
Signals: The bullish breakout appeared at around 1.1030 proved to be false one as long as the price headed back towards 1.08 level. A downward pressure comes form a recent breakout to the downside of a double top at 1.0920 ( weekly chart)
Forecast: Whenever a false bullish breakout appears the price tends to go back towards the bottom of th…
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marius24 10 Dec.

update:aud/nzd continued to lose ground and right now has found a little respite given by a fragile ascending support line which hovers at around 1.0755. In case this support fails to keep the price above this line then more downside moves are in the sight . but not lower than 1.06

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marius24 18 Dec.

update: THe aussie continued to fall mainly on the back of weak australian data which has prompted the market to discount at least one RBA cut over the next 12 months. THe price hit 1,0473 and i think this level could  provide some support in the next period. Current price: 1.0570

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marius24 26 Dec.

update: no chance

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No major moves in the aussie

marius24 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8823, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #False Breakout #Sideway Trading
Currency Pair:Aud/Usd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 0.8810
Trend: sideway
Possible trading range: 0.85-0.90
Signals: a recent double bottom's false breakout ( daily chart) occurred at around 0.89 will weigh negatively on the aussie in the following period and therefore some selling pressures is expected until 0.86
Fundamentals: as long as the key commodity's prices remain down, aud/usd has no chance to rise anytime soon
Forecast: i expect to s…
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marius24 10 Nov.

update: since i put my prediction the aussie has almost lost 300 pips having fallen from 1.8810 toward 0.8540. In the same time a consolidation channel between 0.8898 and 0.8645 has been broken to the downside. THis move was short-lived because the price managed to recover some lost ground hovering right now at 0.8638. From here i remain in favour of staying bullish.

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marius24 20 Nov.

update:in the first phase the aussie has rallied from 0.8619 towards 0.8793 after the neckline (0.8682) of a double bottom has been broken to the upside. After this episode a fall has followed immediately and dragged the price lower at around 0.8565. From this point i expect to see another rebound not higher than 0.88

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marius24 26 Nov.

update: the aussie is hovering at 0.85 level which is 300 pips lower than my target.

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THREE CARD TRICK- AUD CHF

DaddyPapi Posted 4 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Resistance #Consolidation #Test #False Breakout
Like the infamous game, the AUD CHF is giving us 3 choices for what it could be setting up to do.
1ST CHOICE- SIDEWAYS, THEN BULLISH BREAKOUT

The pair had formed and broken out of a large Pennant before pulling back to test the Resistance. It has started to U-turn and looks as if it could be getting ready to resume the breakout. However, it could resume the breakout after moving sideways in a smaller range before breaking long.
DAILY CHART
The other possibility is that the bullish signal appear…
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FALSE BREAKOUT FOR USD CAD ?

DaddyPapi Posted 21 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Consolidation #Daily Chart #Candle #False Breakout
The USD CHF had given us a strong bearish signal to break Support of the large Daily Chart Pennant, only to disappoint by breaking out for a short distance before now being set to return inside the consolidation. With the USD CAD giving a similar, but bullish signal this week, will we see a similar pullback or a large profitable breakout?
USD CHF-DAILY CHART
There was an initial signal followed by a sharp U-turn then a brief breakout of only 140 pips-small in comparison to the size of the Pennan…
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EUR/USD Bull Traps

Daytrader21 Posted 14 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #EUR/USD #Rally #Draghi #False Breakout #Bull Trap #Nowotny

This morning just after the London open some market commentary were crossing the market from ECB's Nowotny who said:" The outlook for Europe as a whole is much better than a year ago; monetary policy has contributed substantially to economic recovery; it’s a positive sign that banks are repaying long-term funding; ECB prepared to be watchful; helpful for interest rate policy if price stability ensured; sees neither inflation or deflation in short or medium term for Eurozone."
And it seems that …
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