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the dollar weakened on Friday despite positive Retail Sales and Producer Price Index releases. While the Fed is still expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, lift-off in policy normalisation may be largely priced in, and as such attention will primarily be on the Fed’s accompanying press conference and updated economic outlook.

The dollar has weakened recently as further drops in oil weigh on inflation expectations, increasing speculation that the Fed will place even greater emphasis on the gradual pace of any future interest rate increases. Today is a quieter calendar day, with no major economic releases expected from our main pairings.

ECB President Draghi will speak this morning (11:00am) at Prometeia's 40th anniversary conference and MPC Member Shafik will speak at the Institute of Directors (12:00pm). Key releases this week include tomorrow's inflation figures from the US and the UK and Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision.
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