United Nations: The inspection team has now arrived on site in Syria after 2 days of delays. Bank Ki-Moon says inspection team “needs time to do its job” in Syria. Whether the US, UK and France will wait for their findings remains to be seen. UN envoy Brahimi says international law is clear that UN Security Council resolution is needed for military action. That hasn’t exactly stopped it previously has it? Also, a UN nuclear watchdog report says Iran has expanded its uranium enrichment program at the Natanz plant. The country installed 1861 first generation centrifuges since May, the total is now 15,416. A reactor planned for Q1 2014 has also been postponed, the report says.
Iran: Iran doesn’t deny that it has a nuclear power program. The dispute is whether its for energy or weapons.
United Kingdom: UK Prime Minister Cameron says he has drafted a resolution for UN condemning chemical weapons attack and authorizing necessary measures to protect civilians. UK will present resolution to UN later today. It seems that Dave can’t wait to get on it. Germany: German foreign minister urges all members of UN Security Council, especially Russia, to back resolution.Russia: Russia says its premature to talk of UN resolution before inspectors deliver report. Russia’s response is no surprise at all.
Syria: What are the military options? As foreign military intervention looms large the BBC has this informative piece on the options available.
The bottom line: affect on oil? We see a rise in crude stocks could crimp rally. Weekly US crude oil supplies rose 2.99 million barrels compared to 0.2m barrels build expected. US crude oil futures highest since May 2011. Now up another USD 3 barrels at USD 112.12 on the expected strike on Syria.
Analysts at Societe General say Brent crude could rise another $5-$10 and hit $120-$125 on headline shock from an air strike in Syria. Spot is at $115.88. They warn that a regional spillover that results in a significant supply disruption could lead to a brief spike to $150. Translation: If oil hits $140/50, sell it with every dollar you’ve got.