Full report
(Video version will be available shortly. You will be able to access it here.)
- The six-month global economic sentiment index rose to 0.59 from 0.57 in June. The three-year economic outlook deteriorated 0.03 to 0.66, the lowest level since October 2012.
- The European six-month economic outlook improved 0.04 to 0.42. The three-year economic prospects worsened to 0.51, down from 0.58 in June when they deteriorated another 0.03.
- Respondents became slightly more optimistic about the six-month North American economic prospects. The six-month economic sentiment index climbed to 0.71. The three-year economic outlook worsened to 0.73.
- The Asia-Pacific six-month and three-year economic outlooks were little changed. The six-month outlook climbed 0.02 to 0.65 and the three-year economic outlook was unchanged at 0.73 from the prior month.
Figure 3 presents the term structure of the Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index (Y-axis) mapped against GDP growth forecasts made by poll respondents (X-axis). Overall, DBSI values and GDP growth forecasts match directionally, suggesting the global economy will perform better three years from now.
Poll respondents suggest that the European economy will be flat in 2013 and will expand 0.63 per cent three years from now.
Respondents revised the North American six-month and three year economic growth forecasts to 1.87% and 2.34% in July, from 1.80% and 2.60% respectively in June.
The Asia-Pacific economic growth prospects remain the most promising, despite lower sentiment compared to North America region. Experts forecast growth of 3.43% and 3.90% six months and three years from now respectively.
Figure 4 presents the business cycle and its phases - expansion (real GDP is increasing), peak (real GDP stops increasing and begins decreasing), contraction or recession (real GDP is decreasing), and trough (real GDP stops decreasing and begins increasing).
A majority of respondents (15) claim the European economy is contracting and twelve say it is in a recessionary trough. Less than a half (12) believe that the European economy will be expanding three years from now.
Experts became more uncertain about the North American 3-year EDS - 18 experts forecast expansion, 6 say the economy will reach its peak and 4 claim the economy may slide into a recession.
Respondents are largely united about Asia-Pacific economic development stages - a majority (20) believe that the regional economy will be expanding both six months and three years from now.
