Continuing on the market situation for EURUSD described in my previous post, events unfolded as expected, with a bit of emotion:
Price action went to test the Triangle and R1 with more strength that I previously imagined (look at the volume in the last test); but R1 is a really strong resistance as I expected previously, and after two additional testings, the bullish impulse faded away and price started to go south before German Unemployment data release.
The situation now is quite clear; a strong volume attractor has formed just above the Pivot, around 1.1230, and with the German unemployment datum as expected, no news can affect the price action till US data release later on (Personal Income and Expenditure, 1330 ECT, and especially New Home Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 1500 ECT); so for the next hours price action will evolve slowly, with the main motto being price going in and out of the 1.1230 attractor. The bearish setting is still intact, so I expect the pair to start doing lower and lower bottoms that will be perfectly visible on shorter timescale charts (5m or shorter) ahead of US data. With such sluggish driver, that release can inject a lot of action on the pair, especially if very underperformer numbers appear. My expectation is that more or less thay will follow expectations, but a better outcome will give the pair enough driving power to test S1.
In the current moment I see a serious testing of S2 today highly unlikely except if the US data is overwhelming good. Regarding trades, nothing changes; the only exception is if S1 breaks, and an volume attractor forms clearly below it; in such case probably will be a very good idea to move stops to breakeven before the weekly trading close.
Price action went to test the Triangle and R1 with more strength that I previously imagined (look at the volume in the last test); but R1 is a really strong resistance as I expected previously, and after two additional testings, the bullish impulse faded away and price started to go south before German Unemployment data release.
The situation now is quite clear; a strong volume attractor has formed just above the Pivot, around 1.1230, and with the German unemployment datum as expected, no news can affect the price action till US data release later on (Personal Income and Expenditure, 1330 ECT, and especially New Home Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 1500 ECT); so for the next hours price action will evolve slowly, with the main motto being price going in and out of the 1.1230 attractor. The bearish setting is still intact, so I expect the pair to start doing lower and lower bottoms that will be perfectly visible on shorter timescale charts (5m or shorter) ahead of US data. With such sluggish driver, that release can inject a lot of action on the pair, especially if very underperformer numbers appear. My expectation is that more or less thay will follow expectations, but a better outcome will give the pair enough driving power to test S1.
In the current moment I see a serious testing of S2 today highly unlikely except if the US data is overwhelming good. Regarding trades, nothing changes; the only exception is if S1 breaks, and an volume attractor forms clearly below it; in such case probably will be a very good idea to move stops to breakeven before the weekly trading close.