January Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Video version is available here.
Prospects of the global economy as seen by the participants of the Dukascopy Bank SA January poll became less attractive compared to the December poll’s results as the six-month sentiment index decreased 0.02 to 0.64, while the three-year outlook stood unchanged at 0.73.
European economic sentiment index was slightly down compared to the last month’s reading. The January forecasts within the region showed 0.53 for the six-month time span and 0.64 for the three-year time span.
The only region where poll participants expect an acceleration of the economic development in both the short and long terms is North-America, as the forecasts six months from now advanced 0.02 to 0.73 and experts’ projections three years from now gained 0.03 to 0.80.
The Asia-Pacific is expected to experience a slowdown as the six-month expectations retreated 0.07 to 0.65, while the three-year predictions fell 0.04 to 0.74.
Figure 3 presents the term structure of the Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index (Y-axis) mapped against GDP growth forecasts made by poll respondents (X-axis). Overall, DBSI values and GDP growth forecasts match directionally, suggesting the global economy will perform better three years from now.
Expected growth of the European region six months from now dropped to 0.62% in January from 0.80% prior month, while the economic expansion three years from now decreased by 0.7% to 1.17% during the month.
The six-month growth in the North-America decreased slightly to 2.00%, while the three-year forecast improved a little to the level of 2.53%.
The expectations regarding the Asia-Pacific economic development remained the strongest among the three regions despite the decrease of the indicators’ values. Experts expect the region’s economy to expand at 3.76% rate six months from now and 4.00% by the early 2017.
January poll results reveal that respondents from North-America are consistently more optimistic about the local economic outlook compared to their foreign colleagues.
Europe: Local experts have equal expectations of the region’s six-month and three-year development, yet foreign poll respondents are less optimistic regarding the economy six months from now. The discrepancy in the opinions between the groups reaches negative 0.10 for the three-year economic
outlook.
North America: Respondents from the North American region are more confident in the region’s both six--month and three year economic development than the foreign poll participants (0.80 vs. 0.70 and 0.83 vs. 0.79, respectively).
Asia-Pacific: Local respondents’ projections about the Asia-Pacific economic outlook by the middle of 2014 meet the foreign experts’ anticipations, while the discrepancy in views reaches the value of 0.09 for the three-year economic sentiment index.
Video version is available here.
Prospects of the global economy as seen by the participants of the Dukascopy Bank SA January poll became less attractive compared to the December poll’s results as the six-month sentiment index decreased 0.02 to 0.64, while the three-year outlook stood unchanged at 0.73.
European economic sentiment index was slightly down compared to the last month’s reading. The January forecasts within the region showed 0.53 for the six-month time span and 0.64 for the three-year time span.
The only region where poll participants expect an acceleration of the economic development in both the short and long terms is North-America, as the forecasts six months from now advanced 0.02 to 0.73 and experts’ projections three years from now gained 0.03 to 0.80.
The Asia-Pacific is expected to experience a slowdown as the six-month expectations retreated 0.07 to 0.65, while the three-year predictions fell 0.04 to 0.74.
Figure 3 presents the term structure of the Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index (Y-axis) mapped against GDP growth forecasts made by poll respondents (X-axis). Overall, DBSI values and GDP growth forecasts match directionally, suggesting the global economy will perform better three years from now.
Expected growth of the European region six months from now dropped to 0.62% in January from 0.80% prior month, while the economic expansion three years from now decreased by 0.7% to 1.17% during the month.
The six-month growth in the North-America decreased slightly to 2.00%, while the three-year forecast improved a little to the level of 2.53%.
The expectations regarding the Asia-Pacific economic development remained the strongest among the three regions despite the decrease of the indicators’ values. Experts expect the region’s economy to expand at 3.76% rate six months from now and 4.00% by the early 2017.
January poll results reveal that respondents from North-America are consistently more optimistic about the local economic outlook compared to their foreign colleagues.
Europe: Local experts have equal expectations of the region’s six-month and three-year development, yet foreign poll respondents are less optimistic regarding the economy six months from now. The discrepancy in the opinions between the groups reaches negative 0.10 for the three-year economic
outlook.
North America: Respondents from the North American region are more confident in the region’s both six--month and three year economic development than the foreign poll participants (0.80 vs. 0.70 and 0.83 vs. 0.79, respectively).
Asia-Pacific: Local respondents’ projections about the Asia-Pacific economic outlook by the middle of 2014 meet the foreign experts’ anticipations, while the discrepancy in views reaches the value of 0.09 for the three-year economic sentiment index.
