Yesterday was my only chance to produce some goods trades and enable me to get closer to the top 10 and I had to force myself and gamble my entire account balance on one trade: long the Dollar. Since I couldn't have the luxury of time, I have to guess and put my bets in advance of the FOMC statement. In hindsight is quite simple to judge why the market has reacted the way it did, however we as trader had to come with the proper plan before the market movement. Even though Fed dropped the word "patience" from the statement as expected, I failed to take in the account the scenario in which FED downgrades economic forecast. Everything from GDP growth, inflation and what matter most the "dot plot", saw the median dot for 2016 fall to 1.875% vs 2.5%, and decline to 3.125% from 3.625% for 2017, have been all revised down.
It was no surprise we got a hard dollar squeeze in this scenario as the market had the perfect market theme to take out the weak hands. The dollar bullish trend is still mature and the macro outlook remains unchanged in the long term, but noting goes in a straight line and corrections are healthy for the market. I think this is a great opportunity for those who have missed the dollar rally to get back on the train.
I've destroyed again my account balance and my long term account balance now looks even worse, but sometimes in the Trader Contest you need this gambles and with a little bit of luck the outcome could have been more happier.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
