Dear Support
On the very first of July I submitted my technical analysis on GBPUSD pair and at that time the price was at 1.5216 and my target was 1.4800 and it moved to 1.4812 within 11 days , that means a profit of more than 400 pips and Today I am amazed and sad also not to see my name in top 15, While I was expecting to come in top 15 atleast. Now I am asking support that how do you guys calculate. Like I entered my prediction on 1st July for the July Month and the target date which was asked was for 2nd September. So was the prediction stood only for the July Month or both July and August. And can you please also tell me how did you calculated my prediction.
Here is the link :
http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/technical_analysis/?action=blog&nickname=pawansansanwal&post_id=1265#comments-block
Thanks
Pawan
The main principle of technical analysis contest is to predict the rate for specific date in your case the date is September 2. Final rate for that period is 1.5579 (GBPUSD, September 2, 12-00 GMT). Difference between your prediction and final rate is 5%. Best result for September 2 contest is 0.03% and the last (place #15) is 1.19%.
Please, follow this link for more information,
paragraph - "Ranking calculation".
http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/technical_analysis/?action=rules
I don't no guys, from my point of wiew tehical analysis contest is super ok. Of course we can't have extraordinary accuracy in our predictions but you can see clearly who makes a
tehnical analysis when you take time to read it or who only set a target and two words.
You should know that Dukas also ckeck to see the quality of predictions, updates...etc. The settlement isn't made in terms of accuracy/deviation. First time when i won 15th place i had a 1.40% deviation or so ..which is huge compared with others 0.40 or less, but i got a prize in front of them because of quality of the prediction and updates given.
In this 3 month period that i attended this contest i probably learned more about tehnical analysis than in the last 3 years trading. I never analyzed with so much attention each currency pair in part. And results can be seen. Besides the prizes won i improved my live trading and have the satisfaction that 60-70% of the prediction given were proven right and maybe 5% incrediblly accurate deviation 1-10 pips max
So the contest is fair and square. No changes needed.
@Pawnsansanwal- keep trying and work on your predictions. I didn't get it right first time i attended contest. Patience ,time& work is needed in orther to achieve good results.!!
@fxmidaso: there is the trader contest for what you ask :) and also not really simple to predict a range trend where a price is not moving (look example usd jpy during august..)
But i agree with you in one thing:
should be a restriction that price must not go X % higher or lower than the predicted one, over the contest period.
also providing possible max and min rates price will eventually reach during the period.
so not enough saying: price will be 1.30 in eurusd on 1st october. should be required also to insert example max price 1.32 and min price 1.28 with reasons etc.
in this way we will see who is a tech analyst and not just a predictor :)