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On Feb 1st we have established a swing point and developed a minor H&S top. (Fig1. see blue circle). Using fractal analysis we can see the H&S pattern is expending on a much bigger scale on the daily chart.(Fig1. see red circle) The market is currently developing the right shoulder. We have an Head&Shoulder within an Head&Shoulder; an Ultimate Reversal Pattern. From here we should see a minor consolidation top right shoulder develop, which should spike up into 1.3200 50% retracement from the 1.3710 top.The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in up trends, this gives me confidence enough to say that we are at a major reversal point.The right shoulder also coincide with wave 2 from an Elliot wave perspective. The first wave which starts from 1.3710 top which is subdivided into a minor 5 wave cycles(see Fig2. for more references) which makes the first wave of the next larger degree cycle.Wave I composition (fig 2), some details:a)We can see that wave 3 of wave I is composed by 5 lower degree waves, in a wave sequence wave 3 is never the shortest one, that's the reason why it's composed by 5 lower degree waves.b)Wave 4 is composed of an irregular triangle pattern.From here we should enter in the wave 3 of higher degree cycle , which should be the longest wave thus bring EURUSD down and break to the down through the bigger H&S neck line.…
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Aussie remains within the long term range: 0.9380 as the lower border and 1.1080 the upper border. Within this trading range we are making a big triangle pattern which is apparently a bullish formation.(see fig.1)Based on Elliot Wave theory this triangle should be composed of 5 legs. We are currently developing an extended leg D which suggest that in order to complete the triangle formation we need to have a final leg E to the downside and to test the support level around 0.9800 round number.The current consolidation between 1.0620-1.0150 (a 470pips ranging zone) which comprise the current leg D is in itself another minor triangle mirroring the bigger triangle on a much smaller scale, making it a fractal. Using projection line(see fig.2) we should see the price traveling at least the same amount of pips as we have made in this range. Although the projection is going as low as 0.9680 it doesn't mean we must go that low this are just some estimated numbers using them for guidance. The more important number is 0.9800 round number as it was explained by using EW theory. Nevertheless 0.9680&0.9800 are numbers closed to each others so they can provide confluence and price reverse from here.I'm expecting price to develop the E leg in the next 2 months and to reverse from there traveling back up again, but by 1st July price should be just around parity 1.0000, consolidating there before to continue upside.
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9 Dollars & 82 Cents - Blowing up My $5k Account
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