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anastasiia_icanfly_ liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

CD1V1 predicted bullish impact of Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

I expect industrial production from the euro zone to show some gains. The forecast of -0.3% is too far from the previous result of 0.6%, even if there is a drop in industrial production, I do not see it getting as low as -0.3%, after a previous result of 0.6%. I expect a bullish reaction from the EURUSD pair.

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CD1V1 predicted bearish impact of Industrial Production (MoM) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

In September and October 2015, the readings from the Japanese Industrial production were less than the upbeat expectations, and October’s reading was particularly worse than the forecast. The readings picked up in November 2015, and have been on the mend since then. For this month, the forecast expects a reading of 1.4%, this is still an improvement compared the readings from previous months. Such a reading would favour the JPY currency, and would cause a bearish impact on the USDJPY pair.

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CD1V1 predicted bearish impact of NZIER Business Confidence (Q4) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

This reading is obtained from a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, retailers, and service providers, to determine the level of optimism about the economy’s health and businesses. The last reading was in the negative, a sign of pessimism about the state of the economy. When you consider the current state of the global stock markets, and the overall forecast of economic performance, the index will probably stay in the negative region for a while. I expect a bearish impact on the NZDUSD pair.

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CD1V1 predicted bearish impact of GDP (QoQ) (Q4) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

China’s Gross Domestic Product has been reducing since 2014, from over 7% in 2014 to its current 6.9%, and there is nothing stopping it from dropping any further. Economic analysts expect China to under-perform, meaning everyone is in agreement that low GDP numbers are to be expected in the coming months. Poor Chinese GDP figures would have a negative impact on the AUD and NZD currencies. This news event would have a bearish impact on the AUDUSD pair.

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CD1V1 predicted bearish impact of CPI (YoY) (Dec) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

U.K’s core price index showed some improvement in December 2015, after a very sluggish quarter. The GBP currency has been steadily depreciating and a positive CPI reading this month would help boost the currency. Nothing has however changed, and analysts still forecast a better reading of 0.2% this month; this expectation is too high. It is a wise bet to expect the CPI readings to fall back to their pre-December values. I expect a bearish impact on the GBPUSD pair.

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CD1V1 predicted bearish impact of German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

German ZEW Economic Sentiment peaked at 16.1 last month, the highest reading since August 2015. The economic numbers coming out from the euro zone have been showing improvement; possibly because the economic policies of the European Central Bank have started having some positive impact. While this is positive news, the current decline of global stocks and economic outlook of China would dampen whatever gains coming out of the euro zone. I expect a bearish impact on the EURUSD pair.