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TheAnalyst has taken 35th place in Dukat Contest Jul - Aug 2018

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Bullish USD/ZAR Forecast

Looking at the monthly chart we are going for a bullish prediction for October. The pair broke through a channel and the MACD has turned positive.
Worrying signs for a bullish prediction include the timing and the MACD indicator. The timing is that the broken channel happened on the news about Turkey and the diving Lira. On top of that we don’t have a solid confirmation since the monthly close is in a couple of weeks. As for the MACD indicator it has turned at a level where it could easily turn…
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TheAnalyst has taken 10th place in Article Contest Sep 2017

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USD/JPY Limited Bullish

The pair just weeks ago had a strong technical bearish move, with the pair moving below a key retest 50% fibonacci level as seen in monthly chart 1.
Monthly Chart 1.
As of September 15 the charts have changed enough to point to a prolonged bullish move. Assuming the pair will act more or less the same with any North Korea threat developments and nothing too good or bad unexpected developments from the FED meeting next week, then the pair is poised to move upwards, but with limited upside.
As see…
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After a high at 113.28 the pair seems to have formed support at 112.38, the level where it corrected during the early US session. Moving forward the next major resistance apart from the previous high at 113.28 is 113.66 and 113.77.

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EUR/USD BREAKING NEWS?

Are we done with the FED resignations and ECB QE "breaking news" now? Can we just worry about Draghi tomorrow?
EUR/USD: lots of buying at 1.188 and at 1.192. Some selling at 1.195. SHORT trade is still holding. Either direction the pair takes it will be a 200 point move.
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NON-FARM PAYROLLS

Waiting for non-farm payrolls to be released. The numbers are expected to be positive for the dollar. Generally, looking for a SHORT in the EUR/USD since it already hit a key target above 1.20 this week.
USD/ZAR and USD/JPY are a bit difficult to pin down at the moment. Technicals have a bearish bias, but with ADP numbers good earlier this week, a bullish move is very likely.
Most likely, will wait for a better risk/reward ratio trade next week and not enter a trade today.
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Despite negative US data all around on Friday, there was an oppurtinity for a LONG in USDZAR today. Although, not the strongest of trades in terms of technicals we entered the trade in mid-European session with a profit target at 13.06. Short-term support at 12.93.

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Bullish Movement After August

Based on the monthly and weekly chart we believe the pair won't retry the lows at the 12.40 price level, but will instead push through resistance at the previous weekly high at around 13.60.
Selling pressure is expected for August and the bullish move to happen sometime in September perhaps prompted by bond-buying program-related news and other signals from the FED. Lots of uncertainty remains and will remain for the rest of 2017 though, mainly political-related.
Nevertheless, based on technical…
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After struggling for several days to surpass the 13.30 level and with downward pressure steady the pair managed to break through the previous daily highs and currently stands at 13.53. Within the day the next level that the USD/ZAR is likely to reach without too much effort is 13.60 and within the week the 13.72 level. The cap for this week and early next week should be around 14.00 with 13.8 as the first resistance.

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As expected the USD/ZAR reached the 13.60 level yesterday and earlier during the session today reached the next expected level with a high at 13.705 today. There was some selling at this level which resulted in a drop to 13.50, but with US GDP numbers encouraging at the MA just above 13.45, the drop could very well be a correction and see the pair ending the month or beginning the next month at closer to 13.77.

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The correction early during Friday trading stopped and the pair recovered some ground closing at around 13.55. It might try for the highs again and even overshoot at around 13.77 on Monday. Overall, considering the downward pressures the pair faced during most of August the Fed and good US data gave the pair the expected boost and bullish momentum.

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Early in the European session the pair looks poised to retry the highs at around 13.7. Currently standing at 13.64 compared to last week's close at around 13.54 . If there's a break then next immediate target is 13.82, which considering the pair's movements could happen within the day.

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Today's Trades

A LONG trade in USD/ZAR with a modest position size was entered and exited within the day, profitably.
A SHORT trade in USD/JPY is currently active with profit target 108.9 and big position size since technicals are looking strong.
Finally, our LONG EUR/USD trade from last week is still active, with the pair struggling to move up. Keeping our stop relatively small we remain in this LONG trade despite the politically-charged week with UK elections and ECB conference coming in.
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USD/ZAR, EUR/AUD, EUR/USD and US Payrolls

A bad LONG trade in USD/ZAR, before the US payrolls numbers and a EUR/AUD LONG trade that didn't pan out in the timeframe we were hoping for (due to margin reasons) set us back today.
A EUR/USD LONG trade seems promising as the pair seems poised to reach 1.14 and move on up from there in the month.
A USD/ZAR SHORT trade was also initialized with the pair having the potential of making a big movement. Will be monitoring this particular pair though and might opt out closing it sooner than expected.
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Ups & Downs

Rollercoaster week. Trades in GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD met with both high profits and losses. Discrepancies in the trading platform capital also didn't help with psychology either. More work to be done in the monthly trading strategy in order to increase profits while also protecting capital. Some tweaking of the trading plan for the remaining days in May and full implementation starting June with the goal of improving, a.k.a. more profits less roller coasting.
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