Quite some action in FX markets at the turn of the month. Several pairs (EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD) broke their respective 200 DMA, and few other ones (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD) their 50 DMA, which sparked some momentum. Stock markets turning lower has also contributed to the volatility.
al_dcdemo's Blog
AUD/USD nearing 0.80
Australian dollar started the week on the front foot and is approaching 0.7975 - 0.80 area, where it is likely to encounter at least some resistance. It's Martin Luther King Day today in the U.S. - thinner liquidity could lead to either tighter volatility or outsized moves.
Loonies consolidates after a big move
USD/CAD appears to be in the process of making a (short-term) bottom above the 50.0% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. Volatility fell in recent days as the pair consolidates after selling off following the second consecutive rate hike by the BOC.
Many are expecting one more hike from the bank as early as this year and that should keep sellers involved. 1.2230 - 1.2250 is the initial resistance and the next one somewhere in 1.23 - 1.2350 area. Buyers were seen near 1.2125.
Many are expecting one more hike from the bank as early as this year and that should keep sellers involved. 1.2230 - 1.2250 is the initial resistance and the next one somewhere in 1.23 - 1.2350 area. Buyers were seen near 1.2125.
Cable recovers from the dip to 1.2590
Cable had a pretty volatile week. It started with an outside down day on Monday. On Tuesday the pair fell more than a cent, after Carney uttered his "now is not time to raise rates". Then on Wednesday it snapped back after BOE dove Haldane revealed that he nearly voted for a hike.
Thursday was a sideways (accumulation?) day and the pair extended gains today, touching 1.274 shortly after London open. 1.265 - 1.27 should attract some buyers if this rally is to continue. 1.275 - 1.28 is where selle…
Thursday was a sideways (accumulation?) day and the pair extended gains today, touching 1.274 shortly after London open. 1.265 - 1.27 should attract some buyers if this rally is to continue. 1.275 - 1.28 is where selle…
Loonie the best performer so far this week
Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better.
I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players (including central banks) to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in th…
I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players (including central banks) to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in th…
Dollar strength to start the year
Quite a lot of action for a Monday but it's not an ordinary day. A volatile first trading day of 2016 has seen the dollar rise and stock fall. Commodites have been mixed but mostly lower.
Yen was the only major currency that beat the dollar on this risk-off day. Offshore renminbi climbed to new multi year highs while PBOC set yuan reference rate to 6.5032 overnight.
Yen was the only major currency that beat the dollar on this risk-off day. Offshore renminbi climbed to new multi year highs while PBOC set yuan reference rate to 6.5032 overnight.
EURo continues to rally
Euro continued its rally today and was the best performer among major pairs. It did very well on the crosses too, rising the most against the Australian Dollar.
Tomorrow is Friday and with most of the Europe on holidays there's potential for some volatile moves on lower liquidity and month-end flows, but just as likely scenario is that the pairs will be consolidating in (tight) ranges.
The zone to watch on the upside is 1.1275 - 1.1300 and if it gives way, a sizable short squeeze could follow.
Tomorrow is Friday and with most of the Europe on holidays there's potential for some volatile moves on lower liquidity and month-end flows, but just as likely scenario is that the pairs will be consolidating in (tight) ranges.
The zone to watch on the upside is 1.1275 - 1.1300 and if it gives way, a sizable short squeeze could follow.
Week ahead
In the week ahead we have month-end, quarter-end and in Japan also fiscal-year-end, plus Good Friday holiday. With quite heavy calendar to boot, that promises lively action with a lot of volatility.
List of potential high impact events (times GMT+1):
30.03.2015 ---------- ALLDAY ------ EUR ---------- German Prelim CPI m/m
30.03.2015 ---------- 16:00 ---------- USD ---------- Pending Home Sales m/m
31.03.2015 ---------- 02:00 ---------- NZD ---------- ANZ Business Confidence
31.03.2015 ----------…
List of potential high impact events (times GMT+1):
30.03.2015 ---------- ALLDAY ------ EUR ---------- German Prelim CPI m/m
30.03.2015 ---------- 16:00 ---------- USD ---------- Pending Home Sales m/m
31.03.2015 ---------- 02:00 ---------- NZD ---------- ANZ Business Confidence
31.03.2015 ----------…